Once ODM fortress, Coast now up for political grabs ahead of 2027

The Coast region, which for more than two decades has been regarded as an ODM stronghold, now appears to be evolving into a swing voting bloc, with the opposition intensifying efforts to court the region’s estimated 1.9 million voters ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The political landscape has further shifted following the demise of Raila Odinga, whose strong grassroots networks had consolidated support across the region. His absence has fragmented the so-called non-native vote, creating an opportunity for rival political formations to compete for influence.

Political analysts argue that ODM has already lost a significant portion of the Kamba vote in Mombasa, Kwale and Taita Taveta counties, a voting bloc that had previously strengthened Raila’s support base, largely due to his political pact with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

President William Ruto’s camp is reportedly concerned that failure by ODM and UDA to agree on joint candidates for elective seats could result in vote splitting, ultimately benefiting the united opposition.

Coast leaders aligned to the broad-based government coalition are therefore facing mounting pressure as they contend with both external opposition threats and internal competition.

Observers note that ongoing wrangles within the broad-based alliance, particularly over zoning arrangements and the question of whether ODM or UDA commands dominance in the region, could hand the opposition a strategic advantage.

Although President Ruto persuaded the Pamoja African Alliance (PAA) to cede political ground at the Coast in favour of UDA, zoning disagreements have continued to generate friction between UDA and ODM.

Last week, Cabinet Secretaries Hassan Joho (ODM) and Salim Mvurya (UDA), Senate Speaker and PAA leader Amason Kingi, UDA Secretary-General Hassan Omar, and Governors Abdulswamad Nassir (Mombasa) and Gideon Mung’aro (Kilifi) convened a meeting aimed at restoring unity within the coalition.

However, PAA deputy party leader Hassan Albeity warned that mishandling zoning arrangements could shift the Coast’s political allegiance towards the united opposition.

According to Albeity, ODM remains dominant in areas such as Kilifi County, where Governor Mung’aro maintains strong grassroots influence compared to Kingi, who has largely remained detached from local politics since leaving the Kilifi governorship in 2022.

With MPs John Bwire Okano (Taveta), Danson Mwashako (Wundanyi), Abdi Khamis Chome (Voi), and several MCAs elected under the Wiper Patriotic Front in 2022, Albeity argued that Kalonzo Musyoka could significantly alter the political equation in 2027 if divisions persist within the broad-based coalition.

“ODM remains strong at the Coast, especially in Kilifi County, and if zoning is mishandled, the united opposition could spring a surprise through Kalonzo Musyoka,” he said.

During the last General Election, UDA secured parliamentary seats in Nyali, Kilifi North and Msambweni, as well as the Kwale governorship, while ODM retained considerable dominance by winning three of the six gubernatorial seats and more than half of the Senate and National Assembly positions.

Pwani University lecturer Dr Hasan Mwakimako cautioned that zoning could weaken the coalition if poorly managed, explaining that the recent leaders’ meeting sought to lower political tensions and find an amicable solution.

He argued that zoning arrangements are only viable where a party commands an outright majority or at least 50 per cent of seats within a region.

“The Coast leadership must resolve zoning disputes because the President does not want the region drifting towards the opposition. That is why Joho, Mvurya, Kingi and Omar are under pressure to unite,” he said.

He added that if the opposition gains ground at the Coast, current leaders risk losing political relevance unless they demonstrate tangible gains delivered to the electorate.

Meanwhile, President Ruto’s prospects of inheriting Raila’s former support base face additional challenges arising from unmet campaign promises, particularly the long-standing issue of squatter settlements.

Residents are awaiting the implementation of government plans to purchase land for resettlement programmes across the region. A fortnight ago, President Ruto pledged that the government would buy land belonging to the Catholic Church in Voi, Taita Taveta County, to settle squatters.

He appointed Cabinet Secretaries Hassan Joho and Salim Mvurya, alongside Senate Speaker Amason Kingi, to spearhead the initiative.

However, stakeholders have criticised the project for lacking transparency and public participation, noting that details regarding land parcels, ownership and costs remain unclear.

“This appears to be a politically timed project meant to attract voters. There has been no public participation, and the public does not know which parcels will be purchased or at what cost,” said Kenya Land Alliance Coast regional coordinator Nagib Shamshan.

Shamshan noted that several settlement schemes, including Mwakirunge, Chakama, Gathecha, Shiba Adabu, Bububu, Kaya Fungo and Mazrui land at Takaungu, remain stalled.

He added that many beneficiaries are yet to receive title deeds due to unresolved payment obligations. For instance, beneficiaries of the Waitiki settlement scheme in Likoni were required to pay Sh182,000 per title in 2016, but many have not completed payment.

Development delays have also fuelled dissatisfaction. The planned expansion of Malindi International Airport, intended to attract international tourists to the resort town popularly known as “Little Italy”, has stalled for more than two years.

Tourism stakeholders say repeated promises have not translated into visible progress.

“It is critical infrastructure. Each time officials speak, we expect to see machinery on site, but we are still waiting,” said Edson Key Aranchi, a villa and cottage owner in Malindi and Watamu.

Similarly, the Sh11 billion Ronald Ngala Utalii College in Vipingo, Kilifi County, remains incomplete despite earlier assurances that the first cohort would be admitted by April 2025.

The ambitious Liwatoni Fish Complex in Mombasa County, projected to create 3,000 jobs in its first phase, has also stalled since the Kenya Kwanza administration took office. The Sh1.49 billion facility is designed to process up to 1,000 tonnes of fish per cycle.