Why Opposition should just settle on Sifuna as flag bearer

Unless those in the Opposition, claiming they can dislodge President William Ruto from the House on the Hill are playing mind games with the public, Edwin Sifuna should be their flag bearer. Why?

First, here is a young man with traction among young voters. Gen Z and millennials are not homogeneous demographic groups. But a majority are drawn to a younger presidential candidate who understands their history and suffering, especially since the 2024 Gen Z protests, when they were battered in the streets. In addition to largely locking the Mulembe nation, Sifuna brings a significant case to the Opposition.

Second, the Wamunyoro man, Mr Rigathi Gachagua, has a golden opportunity to become a statesman by breaking the cycle of political patronage by two dominant tribes, the Kikuyu and the Kalenjins. He needs to stand at the top of Mount Kenya and announce that building a united nation of more than 55 million Kenyans is a better legacy than perpetuating shareholding rights. It is not often that such a blessing comes one’s way; the chance to rewrite history.

Third, the diplomat and peaceful national elder, Mr Kalonzo Musyoka, also has a chance to make history, by paving the way for a younger generation to take power and mentoring them. The Wiper Democratic Front, his political party, has many young politicians who, together with Sifuna, would happily lean on him for advice as they seek to climb to power. He risks unsuccessfully pursuing the presidency against a much younger generation with a different worldview and global ideals. Most of the younger voters would not know much of his contribution to Kenya and peace initiatives in Africa.

While those aged 45 and above will likely vote predictably, with a Kalonzo presidency, rather than gamble on young political leadership, the younger generation of voters, which is a larger voting bloc, does not connect with him as it does with Sifuna. There is a real risk that placing Kalonzo ahead of Sifuna will lead to greater voter apathy among young people. Of course, youthfulness is not the only factor in choosing a presidential candidate. Nevertheless, it is a significant demographic factor. 

Fourth, I just don’t see how Fred Matiang’i’s grouping, alongside Ndindi Nyoro, could avoid playing a spoiler role for Sifuna. If that is the case, what would stop opposition supporters from concluding that this coalition is, in fact, supporting the incumbent?

In a country where voting is first measured by merit, before other subsidiary criteria, David Maraga and Matiang’i would be way ahead of the Opposition pack. However, as things stand in Kenya today, justified or not, those in the Opposition have to eat humble pie and line up behind Sifuna to give the incumbent a run for his money. Performers like Matiang’i would bring credibility to the opposition camp should it win an election.

I have no illusion that public perception and boardroom arrangements are different approaches to choosing a presidential candidate.

In the boardroom approach, while I see Sifuna as a strong candidate, I also recognise that tough negotiators, who may not care about national values, ethical leadership or legacy, could ask the young man to deputise someone else.

The boardroom logic is one of self-interest, political survival and scenario building. In this approach, strategists would be open to the idea of losing to the incumbent and settling for pacts after the election. The risk is that this approach is too transactional to put the national interest before individual and party politics.

For the opposition principals, there is no grey area in which to play it safe and hope the public won’t notice. The operating principle is simple; you are with us or you are against us. This principle is awkward for analytical voters because it offers no third option beyond the incumbent and the main opposition groupings.

The Opposition principals have a lot of permutations to do in choosing the flag bearer. However, unless a real persuasive and well argued negotiated opposition coalition is formed, the risk of losing the election to the incumbent is real.

- Dr Mokua is Director Loyola Centre for Media and Communications