COP30 brings the stakes, money and climate urgency into sharp focus

The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) opened last week in Belém, Brazil, with nearly 200 countries gathering to debate how to slow dangerous global warming.

For two weeks, the city known as the “gateway to the Amazon” will host heated talks on fossil fuels, forests, and climate finance.

The mood is tense. Last year was the hottest on record, and a decade of heatwaves, droughts, fires, and floods has affected every region.

The first COP was held in Berlin in 1995, and every year since, nations have met to assess progress and strengthen their commitments. A turning point came at COP21 in Paris in 2015, when nearly all countries signed the Paris Agreement, pledging to limit global warming to well below 2 °C, ideally 1.5 °C, above pre-industrial levels.

The deal set an ambitious goal, but it did not include a concrete plan. To make the commitments real, countries agreed to submit updated national climate plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), every five years. These plans outline how each nation will cut emissions and adapt to impacts.

Countries were meant to submit their 2035 NDCs by February 2025, but more than 90 per cent missed the deadline. By the time leaders arrived in Belém, most had finally filed their plans, though major emitters like India were still lagging.

Belém sits on the edge of the Amazon, a forest crucial for absorbing carbon and regulating rainfall.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva aims to make this the “Amazon COP” and has launched a Sh16 trillion (US$125 billion) plan to pay countries to protect forests.

Yet controversy shadows the summit. Hotels in Belém are overwhelmed; prices have surged; some small delegations say they are effectively priced out. Environmentalists also accuse Brazil of hypocrisy for approving new oil exploration near the Amazon River while championing conservation.

Lula defends the decision: “I never claimed to be an environmental leader. It would be irresponsible for Brazil to quit oil,” he said before the summit. 

Developing countries want rich nations to honour past promises and unlock new, debt-free funds for adaptation. The main reference point is the new Baku-to-Belém Roadmap, released just ahead of COP30.

It outlines how to scale global climate finance to at least Sh167.96 trillion (US$1.3 trillion) a year by 2035, far beyond the Sh38.76 trillion (US$300 billion) floor agreed last year at COP29 in Azerbaijan.

The roadmap calls for five urgent actions: more grants, fairer debt treatment, lower-cost private capital, stronger national institutions, and reform of global finance rules.

Its critics say it lacks teeth and timelines while supporters see it as a practical bridge between ambition and delivery.

The UN now says the world is almost certain to overshoot 1.5 °C in the near term. Current policies would drive roughly 2.8 °C of warming by the century’s end. Even if all new pledges are met, the world is still headed for about 2.4 °C. Scientists warn that such levels could trigger irreversible loss of coral reefs, melting of polar ice sheets, and severe food insecurity.

The US, historically the largest carbon polluter, has no official delegation at COP30. President Donald Trump, withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, dismissing climate change as “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world.” His absence leaves a gap in diplomacy and finance, with some fearing lowered ambition, while others hope talks could move faster without it.

In early 2025, renewable energy, mainly solar, overtook coal as the world’s top electricity source, signalling structural change even as politics stalls. Reaching consensus is hard, but COP30 could lay the financial and political foundation for the post-2030 climate decade.

For Africa and Kenya, the stakes are personal. Kenya emits less than 0.2 per cent of global greenhouse gases but faces rising costs from floods, droughts, and crop losses. Its Nationally Determined Contribution targets a 35 per cent emissions cut and resilience by 2035, yet 87 per cent of needed finance must come from abroad. Kenyan delegates push for direct, predictable funding for counties and community projects, pointing to the country’s 90 per cent renewable electricity as proof that ambition exists, but access to finance is the real barrier.

Africa wants half of all new climate finance earmarked for adaptation and local access to the Loss and Damage Fund. The continent is asking for grants, not debt, and for reform of institutions that make borrowing too expensive.

COP30 matters because it tests whether the world can match its promises with real money and resolve. The outcome will shape how fast countries move away from fossil fuels, how fairly resources are shared, and whether communities can prepare for the next drought.

At Belém’s crowded halls, far from flooded villages and scorched fields, the question remains: will global leaders act, or will another year of record heat pass with words unfulfilled?