Kenya's carnivores on decline, report documents

The latest National Wildlife Census 2025 Technical Report has sounded an alarm for Kenya’s large carnivores. The report documented massive population declines in African wild dogs and cheetahs since the inaugural census in 2021.

The steep declines across the country’s predator strongholds are attributed to disease, human encroachment, and habitat loss.

The most severe declines occurred among the African wild dog population. The census estimates the current national adult population at 310 individuals across 38 packs in 2025, representing a 51.9% decline from the 645 individuals (59 packs) recorded in 2021.

This sharp decline, the report highlighted, is primarily attributed to a devastating outbreak of canine distemper disease, which affected many wild dogs within the Samburu, Laikipia, and Isiolo landscape. The landscape is currently one of the country’s strongholds for the species.

The African wild dog is currently classified as Endangered on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, with fewer than 7,000 individuals remaining. The species is ranked among the most endangered mammals in the world, with strongholds in southern Africa and eastern Africa.

Besides disease, their populations are small and fragmented, and connectivity remains a major conservation challenge. Their declines are also attributed to human pressures such as conflict, snaring, road kill, disease transmission from domestic dogs, and prey depletion.

Cheetahs are also teetering on the brink, with the national population almost halved. The 2025 estimate stands at 605 individuals, a 47.9% decrease from the 1,160 animals estimated in 2021.

While the report attributed part of the discrepancy to the reliance on ‘guesstimates’ in the previous census, it cited human impact and habitat loss as the major reasons for decline.

A massive localised cheetah extinction was noted in the Athi Kapiti region, where cheetahs are now virtually gone due to habitat loss stemming from construction, including the development of Konza City.

Currently, Laikipia-Samburu-Isiolo ecosystem, Tsavo and Northern Kenya host the largest populations of lions in the country.

The lion population, a pillar of Kenya's Big Five tourism, also registered a downward trend. The census reports a national population of 2,512 lions as of 2025, translating to a 3% decline from the 2,589 recorded in 2021. The reasons for the slow but steady decline, as highlighted in the report, include persistent human-lion conflict, loss of wild prey, disease, and increasing habitat fragmentation.

Major declines in lion populations were recorded in the Mara ecosystem.  In 2021, 556 lions were recorded within the ecosystem, numbers that have declined to 465 in the latest counts. Other smaller declines were recorded in Tsavo conservation area, Amboseli ecosystem, Laikipia ranches, among other areas. Slight population increases were recorded in Lake Nakuru National Park, Solio ranch, Ol Pejeta Conservancy, among others.

The report highlighted intensified infrastructural development, such as new roads and rail corridors both within and outside protected areas, as fragmenting lion habitats and reducing connectivity. The infrastructure also contributes to increasing mortality due to collisions.

Currently, the largest remaining populations are found in the Maasai Mara National Reserve, Tsavo National Park, and the Laikipia ecosystem.

For the Spotted Hyena, the official count remains static at 5,147 individuals for both 2021 and 2025, as the report notes that no systematic counts were done to update the figures. However, the threats to hyena survival include the reduction of their habitats due to habitat conversion, indiscriminate killing driven by conflict and misconceptions, encroachment by livestock, as well as depletion of their natural prey base.

Despite the declines, the report highlighted that the recovery of iconic species is constrained by human pressures like habitat fragmentation and human-livestock competition, as well as climatic shocks such as prolonged droughts, which continue to depress reproduction and increase mortality.