Wetter season expected across Horn of Africa, IGAD Warns
Environment & Climate
By
Ronald Kipruto
| Jan 27, 2026
The Horn of Africa region is likely to experience wetter-than-normal rainfall conditions between March and May.
According to a release by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center, the region has a probability of 45 per cent.
The areas include: Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, central to western Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia, and Djibouti.
Additionally, a 40 per cent probability of near-normal rainfall is expected over western and eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Kenya, most parts of Somalia, coastal Tanzania, and isolated areas of Uganda and Ethiopia.
Also, Drier-than-normal conditions are expected over coastal parts of Kenya.
“Normal to early onset of rains is expected over most parts of the region, while delayed onset is forecast over localised areas of Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Somalia,” read part of the IGAD outlook.
Despite the seasonal outlook, dry spells may still occur in areas forecasted to receive near-normal or above-normal rainfall, and wet spells may occur in areas forecasted to receive near-normal or below-normal rainfall.
The release further showed the likelihood of Warmer-than-average temperatures expected over most parts of the Horn of Africa, with higher probabilities over Sudan, Djibouti, Tanzania, and parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya.
However,Cooler-than-average conditions are expected over parts of central to northern Ethiopia.
ICPAC has further urged its member states and humanitarian and development partners to closely monitor updates of seasonal forecasts to scale up preparations and anticipatory actions to minimise potential flood and drought impacts.
Emphasizing the importance of early warning services, Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department, Edward Muriuki, said providing timely information enables the government and community prepare adequately for climate-related hazards.
Principal Secretary (PS) for the State Department for Environment and Climate Change in Kenya, Festus Ng’eno, on his part, underscored the importance of climate services, saying timely updates inform better decisions.
“Climate services, when timely, credible, and user-driven, provide a powerful bridge between climate science and practical actions that protect lives, livelihoods, and support sustainable development,”he said.