Met: Prepare for heavy rainfall, floods and landslides in October

The Kenya Meteorological Department has urged Kenyans and the government to prepare adequately for heavy rainfall between October and December, warning that El Niño could extend to February 2027.

The department said most parts of the country are likely to record above-average rainfall during the short-rains season, raising the risk of floods, flash floods, landslides and other weather-related hazards.

The forecast was released during the 13th National Climate Outlook Forum, which provided the outlook for the October to December 2026 season.

According to the department, most counties are expected to receive more than 125 per cent of their seasonal average rainfall.

“Below normal rainfall or below average rainfall is said to occur when less than 75 per cent of the seasonal average is expected, while near normal to above normal is said to occur when you are likely to receive 75 to 125 per cent.  Above normal occurs when the rains go beyond 125 per cent of the seasonal average,” KMD Director-General Edward Muriuki explained.

Turkana and parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit are, however, expected to experience near-average to above-average rainfall.

Temperatures are also expected to remain warmer than average throughout the season, particularly in coastal counties including Kwale, Kilifi, Mombasa and Lamu, as well as parts of Tana River, Taita-Taveta and Garissa.

“Exceptional weather demands exceptional preparedness and response. Early warning should lead to early action and anticipatory planning. The department is working towards enhancing preparedness and early warning efforts for an exceptional event to ensure safety of lives and livelihoods,” Muriuki said.

The department said rainfall in western Kenya is expected to begin in September and could continue into January, with the possibility of extending beyond that period.

“El Nino is firmly established and is expected to strengthen further. World Meteorological Organisation forecasts show near 100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027,” said Muriuki.

In most other parts of the country, the onset is expected between the second and fourth weeks of October.

Muriuki said scientific evidence showed that the El Niño signal was strong and intensifying, although the current situation should not automatically be equated with the extreme conditions witnessed during the 1997-98 El Niño.

He said the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another major climate driver, is currently neutral but with indication of strengthening further.

During the 1997-98 event, a strong positive IOD occurred alongside a powerful El Niño, contributing to exceptionally heavy rainfall in Kenya.

“Such a strong El Nino can substantially alter temperature and rainfall patterns across many parts of the world, increasing the likelihood of impacts including floods, drought and extreme heat.”

“However, the strength of an El Nino event alone does not determine how severe the impacts will be in any individual country or region. Its effects vary according to the location and season and can be modified by other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans,” he added.

Environment, Climate Change and Forestry Cabinet Secretary Deborah Barasa said the government was moving towards a people-centred approach in the delivery and use of weather information.

She said forecasts must reach communities and be translated into practical measures for farmers, pastoralists, fishermen, transport operators, health officials and other sectors likely to be affected by extreme weather.

“We continue to work together and using the information that we have received from the scientists and the technologists to ensure that we are protecting Kenyans, their lives, their livelihoods from the impacts of El Nino,” said Barasa.

Barasa noted that government is particularly concerned about communities living in flood-prone and riparian areas, as well as those exposed to landslides and mudslides.

She said village elders would be involved in mapping vulnerable areas and helping authorities ensure that people living in high-risk zones are moved to safer areas.

The anticipated hazards include flooding in riverine areas, flash floods, urban flooding, overflowing lakes, landslides, mudslides, lightning strikes, strong winds and overflowing dams and water pans.

The Cabinet Secretary said counties were being prepared to develop their own plans covering preparedness, response, recovery and reconstruction.

“In terms of preparedness, we are now at the preparedness and readiness time. KMD that county directors would help ensure that meteorological information was understood and translated into actionable plans at local level.

Barasa said the meteorological department's role was to provide timely forecasts while other government agencies translated the information into sector-specific interventions.

“We have given the early warning, we have shown the weather forecast, we have told you how the situation will be,” she said, stressing the need for a whole-of-government response.

Barasa added that they are also seeking to use the rainy season to advance its land restoration programme and tree-growing campaign.

“We are committed to working very closely with other government agencies, partners and humanitarian agencies across the country to provide climate information and insights needed to support disaster management and climate sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources.”

“I urge all Kenyans to ensure that you keep utilizing and following all the weather reports and updates that we produce and publish through our official website and social media pages,” said the MD.