Too late for mitgation as Kenya braces for El Nino rains

There is little time left for Kenya to prepare for the expected El Niño-enhanced rains, disaster risk expert Zachary Misiani has warned.

Misiani a disaster risk management and anticipatory action expert at the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority, warned that the window for long-term mitigation has already closed and the country can only accelerate preparedness and anticipatory action before the rains intensify.

Misiani said measures such as hazard mapping, identifying vulnerable infrastructure, repairing roads, strengthening drainage systems and procuring emergency supplies should have been undertaken months before the onset of the rains.

Instead, he urged authorities to shift focus from mitigation to preparedness measures that can reduce the impact of disasters as the rains approach.

“It is too late now. It was supposed to be done from June, July. This is the time we have a window of opportunity to upscale preparedness and readiness activities, but not mitigation. it is too late,” said Misiani.

Misiani explained that disaster risk management follows several stages, including mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery, with mitigation requiring considerably more time because it involves identifying risks, mapping vulnerable areas, improving infrastructure and putting the necessary resources in place.

“You cannot wait until September to start repairing roads. You cannot wait until September to start procuring mosquito nets,” Misiani said, warning that such measures cannot be effectively undertaken when a major weather event is already approaching.

“This is not the time for hazard mapping or checking which road is supposed to be repaired. You cannot prepare a road within this short period,” he said explaining that infrastructure projects require considerably more time than the remaining period before the heavy rains.

The warning comes as Kenya prepares for the October-November-December rainfall season, which is expected to receive an additional boost from El Niño conditions.

Misiani emphasized that El Niño itself is not rainfall but a climate signal that can enhance the amount and intensity of rainfall during the season.

Nairobi, for instance, normally receives about 300–350mm of rainfall during the three months but according to the expert, it could receive up to 400mm under the current conditions.

He added that the consequences of delayed preparedness could be significant, citing eight hazards that authorities and communities should be ready for.

These include riverine flooding, flash floods, urban flooding, lake backflow, lightning and thunderstorms, strong winds, ocean waves and risks involving dams and earth dams.

Riverine flooding could affect communities living along major river basins, including the Tana and Garissa and Nzoia basins, while intense rainfall over short periods could trigger flash floods.

Urban centres such as Nairobi, Mombasa, Narok and Kisumu are particularly vulnerable because of drainage challenges, rapid population growth and infrastructure limitations.

Misiani said the focus now should therefore be on preventing hazards from turning into disasters through early action.

He stated that one of the most important measures is ensuring communities act before the rains become destructive.

For he said farmers should be given timely information to harvest existing crops, store food and, where possible, plant faster-maturing varieties that can withstand the expected conditions.

“If you let the communities know exactly what is happening early, farmers can make decisions on what crops to grow that would mature faster into the year so that by the time El Nino hits they have harvested, they have food in their granaries, they have stored them,” Miisani argued.

In low-lying and flood-prone areas, he said communities should also know in advance where they will move when their homes become unsafe, including identifying schools and government facilities that can serve as temporary evacuation centres.

“But however best the early warning information is, if you are not well prepared, then we must prepare to respond and the amount of resources that are likely to be used during the response would be much huge,” Misiani said.

While stressing that the value of forecasts lies in the action taken before a disaster strikes, Misiani said Kenya has not been caught unaware by the current threat, noting that weather information has been collected and analysed continuously.

Meanwhile, the government has announced that some preparedness measures are already being undertaken through a multi-agency process bringing together meteorological, water, health, education and disaster management agencies among other sectors.

In the health sector, the government announced that medical facilities and supplies are being pre-positioned in high-risk counties, particularly in areas where roads could become impassable.

The education sector is also preparing for the possibility of flooding during the examination period, including contingency arrangements to move examinations to nearby unaffected schools where necessary.

Transport authorities, meanwhile, are identifying vulnerable road networks and alternative routes, including the Nairobi-Garissa road towards Wajir and Mandera and routes serving western Kenya.

The director Col David Samoei, said county disaster preparedness committees led by governors and county commissioners have been told to identify in facilities that can be used as holding spaces for the people who will be displaced by floods to serve as IDP camps.

“We have been told that this rain is going to be one of the heaviest; Probably in the last 50 years or so. So the country is really faced with a very serious threat of flooding and many other impacts associated with flooding. But we have made certain preparations,” Samoei added.

He added that roads between Nairobi and Garissa, Wajir and Mandera, Isiolo, and Marsabit will be affected.

“We have to figure out in good time how our citizens are going to be supported in these areas. If we don't prepare well, the citizens will suffer.