Treasury numbers giving Ruto headache

The slow growth that the economy registered last year has given President William Ruto’s critics fodder, who say the numbers published last Wednesday demonstrated that the Kenya Kwanza administration’s aggressive tax policies are stifling productivity and driving down the economy.  

This is even as President Ruto appeared to dispute the Economic Survey 2026, which showed that Kenya’s economy grew at a slower pace.

The Head of State, in a rare public dismissal of official State statistics, labelled stories emanating from the report that run on different media as sponsored headlines.

While Ruto had spent the week touting a transformed Kenya, the survey, prepared and published by his own government, tells a story of an economy losing steam. 

The 4.6 per cent growth in 2025 is compared to 4.7 per cent in 2024 and 5.6 per cent in 2023. President Ruto had been able to post an accelerated growth of 5.6 per cent in 2023, up from 4.8 per cent in 2022, a year he shared with President Uhuru Kenyatta’s last days in office, which also experienced the worst drought in 40 years.  

The numbers show that while the economy has been growing, it has been losing momentum since President Ruto took over in September 2022.  

Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro said a growth of 4.6 per cent in 2025 was despite the country having enjoyed relatively good conditions that should have spurred growth at a faster pace.  

“This is despite the year enjoying the best natural, national and global conditions. Fairly calm, internal political stability and low oil prices – averaging below $70 (Sh9,100) per barrel,” he said.  

Nyoro compared the economic performance of the last three administrations, which showed that the economy posted the slowest growth over the first three years that Ruto has been at the helm. Between 2022 and 2025, Kenya’s economy has grown 14.9 per cent.

This is compared with the first three years of the Jubilee administration between 2013 and 2016, when the economy grew by 21 per cent, and that of President Mwai Kibaki between 2002 and 2005, when the economy grew by a stellar 36 per cent. 

“The comparison of the first three years of the previous three governments since 2002 also shows our economy has not performed as Kenyans would wish or have been made to believe,” said Nyoro, noting that over the last three years, Kenya has been the underperformer in the region.

Kenya’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.6 per cent in 2025 is in comparison with that of Rwanda, which grew by 9.4 per cent, Ethiopia (seven per cent), Uganda (6.5 per cent) and Tanzania (six per cent). 

“The economy was also the worst-performing in the region, which calls for a total policy shift to reclaim the progress in the past.” 

President Ruto has, however, appeared to dispute the numbers on Friday, dismissing the slow growth as sponsored headlines.

He also noted that the economy is on a firm footing, with the government implementing different measures and projects, including the Social Health Insurance Fund, the numerous markets and affordable housing programme that the administration is implementing, as well as mega projects such as the Rironi-Mau Summit road and the Naivasha Kisumu Standard Gauge Railway, which he noted were stuck for years. 

“The noise may command attention, but it cannot, and it will never change reality because,” he said.  

“The true story of a nation is not told in sponsored headlines…. There is no amount of reports or writing sponsored headlines that is going to change the reality. We can have many headlines, we can have debates on social media elsewhere, but the cost of fertiliser was Sh6,000, but is now Sh2,500,” said the President, as he highlighted the different measures that the government has put in place that he said are yielding jobs and money in pockets for Kenyans. 

These include reforms in the sugar sector, where he noted “sugar mills had shut down and farmers would be paid after one year, while workers would go for months without pay. Today, however, the sugar mills are crushing cane, they are paying farmers and the employees… that is the reality”.  

Despite the subsidised fertiliser programme and other interventions that were aimed at increasing production, the Economic Survey 2026 shows that the agricultural sector recorded a decelerated growth of 2.8 per cent in 2025 compared to 4.4 per cent in 2024.  

Among the most affected crops included sugar cane, whose production dropped 26 per cent to seven million tonnes in 2025 from 9.4 million tonnes in 2024. Wheat also dropped to 254,900 tonnes last year from 311,800 tonnes produced in 2024. 

However, the production of maize, a staple for the country, grew from 44.8 million bags in 2024 to 45.8 million bags in 2025.

Analysts have in the past attributed the growing maize production to Dr Ruto’s interventions, including the subsidised fertiliser and other inputs, including advanced seeds, but also favourable weather.  

Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi had on Wednesday tried to explain the factors that were at play last year that influenced economic performance.

He said that a drought towards the end of last year had affected the agriculture sector, also affecting the performance of other sectors linked to agriculture. 

The CS said while agriculture has registered above average growth in the first three quarters of 2025 at over 4.8 per cent, the failed short rains season hurt the agriculture sector.  

“Over the fourth quarter, we witnessed very severe droughts in this country, which spilt over to January and February this year. It hit us so hard. And because of that, the agricultural sector… registered a negative growth, which also explains why even the manufacturing sector slowed… because the manufacturing sector goes hand in hand largely with the agricultural sector, Kenya being heavily dependent on agriculture,” said Mbadi, whose docket houses KNBS and the numbers it produces that now appear to have angered the President.  

“Transport and storage, as usual and as expected, also slowed down from 4.3 per cent to 3.7 per cent. Again, transport, if the production goes down, obviously, there will be little to transport and even to store.”  The cost of living last year remained within the government’s target, but it has started going up, mostly affected by last month’s sharp increase in the cost of fuel.  

In 2025, inflation averaged at 4.1 per cent, a multiyear low, but has since started going up this year following a surge in the cost of fuel in April.

Inflation - which is the speed at which prices of commodities increase – stood at 5.6 per cent in April, up from 4.4 per cent, pushed up by transport and food prices.

Nyoro said the government would need to do more to cushion Kenyans who are now staring at an increase in the cost of all essential goods, as a further increase in the cost of fuel is expected. 

“Given that the effect of the recent oil price increment only accounts for half the month, this is likely to rise further in May,” he said.  

“To avert further rise in inflation, the government must further subsidise fuel through the Fuel Stabilisation Fund. The Fund has over Sh17 billion, and this should be activated to keep fuel prices low in the short and medium term.” 

The economic debate shifted from mere numbers to the pain that the economic situation has meant for Kenyans’ households on Labour Day.

Former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua decried the state of the economy and its impact on households, with numerous deductions significantly reducing the disposable income of many Kenyans.   “Today, workers in Kenya gather in pain and disrespect,” he said, in his Labour Day message to Kenyans.  

“They stand at the intersection of a mutilated payslip and a dwindling economy. They are overworked, overtaxed and underpaid besides being disrespected.”  He further hit out at Cotu boss Francis Atwoli, whom he noted has been using to push President Ruto’s re-election instead of fighting for the workers.  

“On Labour Day, instead of defending workers, he is saying ‘two-term’. The payslip has been raided, and there is nobody to speak for them,” said Gachagua.