Why the real loser in Ol Kalou contest is the State

While elections produce both winners and losers, the real loser in Ol Kalou was not UDA's candidate but the State itself. Unless Kenya radically reforms its electoral environment, the by-election offers yet another warning of how State conduct is undermining our electoral democracy.

What lessons should we draw, and what must change before the 2027 General Election? Given the repeated election crimes witnessed in recent weeks, it is worth restating the standards set by our Constitution and electoral laws. Elections must reflect the will of voters, not the preferences of politicians, State agencies, or security agencies (CoK Articles 1, 38).

Every Kenyan has the right to campaign peacefully, support a candidate or political cause of their choice, seek public office, and vote by secret ballot (Art.38). Elections must be free from bribery, intimidation, violence, improper influence, and the misuse of public resources (Art.81, 88). The IEBC must act independently and impartially, regulating all candidates, political parties, public officials, and security agencies alike (Art.88).

While many Kenyans may be hearing about this Nyandarua parliamentary constituency for the first time, Ol Kalou draws its name from the Maasai for “place of large ants”. More than the mountain ranges the imperialists named after Lord Aberdare, Nyandarua produced some of most courageous freedom fighters in our nationalist struggle to wrestle back the highlands from white settlers. One of finest social justice democrats JM Kariuki also came from here.

Over the last two months, Ol Kalou has attracted large and destructive ants. They turned Ol Kalou into a proxy battleground between the ruling party and the opposition. On Thursday, 57 per cent of the 73,480 registered voters cast their votes. Six times more voters voted for DCP candidate Sammy Kamau Ngotho (85 per cent) than the ruling UDA’s candidate Samuel Muchina Nyagah (13 per cent).

Given the fierce, no-holds-barred campaign, the jubilation in one camp and despair in the other were predictable. Some, including Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, cast the result in World Cup terms. UDA won Mbeere, DCP won Ol Kalou, and the final will be the 2027 General Election. In both the celebrations and concessions, however, a more important insight is being overlooked.

Despite 63 years of post-independence elections, a robust legal framework, and the deployment of nearly 1 per cent of the national police force, the by-election at times resembled an auction or an insurrection rather than a democratic contest.

Reports documented widespread voter bribery and inducement, including cash handouts, mattresses, gas cylinders and food, alongside allegations of partisan mobilisation by chiefs and even invitations to State House for UDA supporters.

On the side of insurrection, the by-election saw violent clashes, campaign property destroyed, and armed individuals suspected to be state officers using tear gas and military-grade weapons to disperse agents, journalists, and observers at Ol Kalou Comprehensive School and other polling stations.

Elections observer Allan Ademba, among others, was reportedly detained throughout polling day without charge. Public trust was so shattered that police and election officials were body searched by the electorate to make sure they were not carrying ballots or bank notes to influence the vote.

With these trends, it is hard to call Ol Kalou a success. The people may have prevailed, but should any election be this corrupt or violent? After two months of documented abuses and repeated warnings, promises to “identify, investigate and arrest” those responsible, ring hollow. Until we see arrests, prosecutions, convictions and fines, electoral criminals remain free to steal future elections.

This Ol Kalou by-election reinforced, rather than contradicted, this week’s well publicised Kofi Annan Foundation's Electoral Vulnerability 2026-2027 Index findings on Kenya. Preventing a violent insurrection or a corrupt auction in 2027 will require more than election-day logistics.

Ol Kalou demonstrates once again that sustained voter registration, civic education, turnout, and election monitoring are the most important guardrails of our constitutional democracy. The giant ants who feasted on Ol Kalou are on the move. Unless we remain vigilant and active, they will carry corruption, violence and impunity into every corner of our beloved Republic.