What UDA's triumph in mini polls portends for opposition

For President Ruto’s UDA, this was a good week. Even his detractors will accept that Thursday’s by-elections indicated that it is too early to write off the President.

In an election that was more about the protagonists at the presidential level than the specific candidates, the performance of the President’s party, claims of rigging and buying the election notwithstanding, is a welcome boost for the team.

Granted, one should not read too much into by-election results 18 months before the general election, but for UDA to have an impact in Embu, deep in the mountain, should worry those who wish the President unseated in 2027.

One of those who must worry is Riggy G; his claim that Mlima is 100% wantam and that he has 7 million votes in his pocket has been dented.  

There are four observations from these elections that may have implications for 2027. Firstly, election violence could easily taint the General Election. The level of violence witnessed yesterday was unfortunate and a stain on our democracy.

The IEBC and security forces must review security protocols to ensure we do not have total breakdown of law and order in 2027. There must be a few people, including security personnel, hauled to court this week if we are to reduce the impunity traditionally associated with electoral violence.

Secondly, allegations of rigging will cloud the 2027 election. Whether supported by facts, or as part of traditional Kenyan election lingua, such claims have the capacity to delegitimise the results. IEBC must therefore invest in transparency processes that effectively challenges rigging claims.

The reality however is that many rigging allegations are mere political talk. Having been intimately involved in the last five general elections, I can confidently say the rigging that occurs happens not on election day, but throughout the period preceding the elections. Voter bribery proceeds routinely during campaigns.

Use of public resources by those in government goes on unchecked. Vote rigging on election day hardly occurs, unless parties and their agents are negligent.

Since Maina Kiai’s case affirmed the polling station as the final result, all that IEBC does after the polling station results are announced is arithmetic and basic verification that the results documentation is compliant with the Elections Act. It is not surprising therefore that very few election petitions have been successful in the last three general elections.

The third observation is that the Gen Z electoral wave is overstated, unless something fundamental occurs between now and 2027. The 6 constituencies in which the by-elections occurred have substantial Gen Z electorate. One would have expected that if there was a generation-based political consciousness, it would have been exhibited, however slightly, in these elections. We should have seen a few youthful, tribeless, clanless, candidates make a statement, even if they did not win. What we observed instead was the same old politics, informed by same historical dynamics.

Of course, there is time before 2027 and this generation could still surprise us like they did in June last year, but I have serious doubts.

If they really wish to make an impact on the elections, Gen Z must spend less time online and more time in polling booths in dusty classrooms, where the actual impact can be felt. The fourth lesson is that Kenyans somehow still have some faith in the democratic process.

Granted, the turn out in many of the by-elections was low, which is typical of by-elections, but many voters still came out and braved the sun to cast their ballot. Despite extensive disillusionment in government, it is clear that citizens still believe political leadership matters.

That hope must be kept alive. Democracy, despite its deficiencies and wobbliness, remains the most viable process through which change occurs. What will kill citizen’s faith in democracy is the absence of a democratic dividend. For as long as leadership does not deliver notable changes in citizen’s lives, faith will continue to dip.

A quiet desperation will eventually birth consequences like those we are seeing in West and Central Africa. To the winners of the by-elections and their sponsors, there is no time to celebrate, focus must now turn to ensuring democracy’s return on investment.    

-The writer is an advocate of the High Court of Kenya