Ruto-Raila pact leaves Gachagua, Azimio partners in political wilderness

Raila Odinga and William Ruto, clever politicians, repeatedly play others, create coalitions, and sacrifice 'friends'. Having created opposing political coalitions prior to the August 2022 election while competing for the presidential prize, keen minds observed that the two men would get back together just as they did before.

Who plays who is not, and never was, an issue. Perceived temporary interests are the guide. Raila and his ODM party successfully played Azimio as Ruto played Kenya Kwanza, but Raila's play on Azimio was a master stroke. He played Azimio-affiliated parties blind and, to some extent, made Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua appear lost.

Raila and his ODM manage to have it both ways in the slippery political field. They dine lavishly at Ruto's high table and still insist on leading the Opposition in Parliament. As Minority Leader Opiyo Wandai jumped at the chance to become CS, ODM ruffled Azimio's feathers by declaring it would not relinquish the position to other parties.

ODM chairman John Mbadi previously dismissed Ruto's cabinet as a collective 'skunk' but he quickly joined the 'skunk' team as CS Treasury. The possible reason for ODM joining the 'skunk', it was argued, was to save Ruto's presidency because the likelihood of 'Riggy G' being president in case Ruto vacates office was unacceptable. Thus the ODM reasoning was two-pronged; as Gachagua's containment strategy and to deodorize the collective 'skunk'.The Raila-Ruto political 'hugging' was not surprising, except for those like Gachagua who, like Josphat Karanja, refused to see the signs. Karanja, appointed Vice-President to replace Mwai Kibaki following the 1988 Mlolongo fiasco, he went around throwing his new political weight so much that Charles Rubia wondered who had made him Nairobi's political prefect. Ignoring warnings that he would not last a year, he served his only purpose, to organise a national holiday on October 10 called Moi Day, ten days before Kenyatta Day, after which he was unceremoniously hounded out, seemingly for implying that he was 'acting president'.

Gachagua failed to learn from Karanja. He declared Ruto to be his 'king', tried to pressure other 'leaders' to accept him as 'king' of the Mountain, and struggles to maintain a facade of unity with Ruto. Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga, seeing through the facade, detected anti-Gachagua mischief and vividly captured the deputy president's confusion. Ruto, Kahiga asserted, told Gachagua to say inappropriate things such as Gachagua saying he had put traps around the State House to stop Raila's entry.

Kahiga then wondered whether Riggy G. had any clue how Raila entered the State House bedroom. With Kahiga's encouragement, he developed a sense of leadership entitlement because he was deputy president. He had a habit of belittling others who reportedly gravitated towards Ruto by labelling them 'tukonia' and 'kunda ngutume'. Even after Ruto said he did not want people called 'tukonia' and that he preferred the religious 'mwathani agocwo' slogan, Gachagua still calls them 'tukonia'. Subsequently, Ruto and Gachagua maintain a facade of unity similar to that of the Uhuru-Raila togetherness in Azimio.

Fractures in Azimio and Kenya Kwanza are normal because political coalitions and mergers never last, especially when they are cobbled up in last-minute desperations. If they win, partners start quarrelling about who cheated the others in sharing the spoils. If they lose, they blame each other for the loss. After losing, Azimio members turned on and started short-changing each other with ODM seeking Ruto benefits. Ruto's Kenya Kwanza maintains semblances of unity amidst intense regional disunity. Despite Gachagua's assertions, the Mountain is fractured, desperate, feels cheated, and sees little future in refurbished 'vehicles' or those claiming leadership. On his part, Gachagua's 'King Ruto' seemingly cut the Mountain to size and prefers the Lakeside with Raila doing more than deodorise the collective 'skunk.' The losers are Azimio and Gachagua, played and left wondering in the political wilderness.