Strategies that Ruto can use to 'rig' 2027 presidential election

*The following opinion piece was written by Dr Michael Ndonye is a senior lecturer at Kabarak University’s Department of Mass Communication*

In 2018, when William Ruto and former ="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/topic/uhuru-kenyatta">President Uhuru Kenyatta< were battling a political divorce, Nic Cheeseman and Brian Klaas released their book, ‘How to rig an election’. The book featured Kenya, Russia, the US, and Zimbabwe as case studies, highlighting manoeuvres for successfully manipulating elections amidst a smokescreen of democracy.

Cheeseman and Klaas enumerated gerrymandering, vote buying, repression, hacking the election, ballot box stuffing, and playing the international community as six demonstrated ways in ‘stealing an election’ in the so-called democracies. I will not propose any of these to Dr Ruto in 2027—he has better options.

In 2027, Ruto and his government will be ‘audited’ using the quality management systems that they have already provided.

The best feeling for Ruto, his administration, and his supporters would be if he secures re-election through proven governance rather than electoral malpractice. It would even be better if the victory were beyond reproach—if he does this, he will set a standard that has eluded this country since multiparty democracy.

The first of the six ways he can rig the 2027 elections will be to ensure that the Social Health Insurance Fund (SHA) works. Although many are still complaining of its inefficiency, SHA has the potential to be a game-changer because access to affordable health is still a pressing concern for millions of Kenyans. Therefore, if it proves reliable and efficient before the 2027 general elections, citizens who have historically struggled with hospital costs may consider giving him another term—note that health reforms sway elections not only in the developing world but also in developed democracies like the United States.

The second game-changer could be the housing project. Yes! Seen as a forced socialist approach in a capitalist country, Ruto’s Affordable Housing Programme can give him the edge if he capitalises on its ability to create jobs. Housing is a big problem in urban centres, and especially for low-income earners. As long as the project proves to improve living conditions for this population, it could bolster his political appeal.

The other four strategies have nothing to do with promises; however, they are good political practices that all presidential candidates should use.

The first one, which we discussed extensively in this column last week, is the Rift Valley ethnic equation. If Ruto manages to solidify unity between the Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities in the Rift Valley, he could secure a significant advantage before the race begins. The Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities battle rising tensions before and after every general elections. Therefore, any leader who puts Kikuyu and Kalenjin on the same political battlefront before 2027 will gain the international community and civil society’s appreciation. As I said last week, Kenya is safe to go to elections when these two communities are on the same political standing.

Moreover, one of the biggest complaints among Kenyans today is the high taxation burden that the Ruto regime has subjected them to. If Ruto’s administration successfully introduces tax relief measures without compromising essential public services, he could win over frustrated citizens. His economic policy, the bottom-up model, that made Kenyans to prefer him over his competitor in 2022 was supposed to ease the then financial strain on households.

Is he aware that this is the only unfulfilled promise that makes Kenyans label him a liar? —it’s his regime’s biggest undoing.

Ruto will also need to tone down his administration’s political rhetoric and concentrate on delivering tangible results. If he needs to change perceptions about his administration, he should take a leadership approach that prioritises action over public declarations. Kenyans are hungry for measurable progress, efficiency, transparency, and effective service delivery.

Lastly, perhaps the most crucial factor that will determine Kenya’s 2027 election integrity will be public trust in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). Kenyans are looking up to Ruto’s regime to oversee the installation of a politically neutral IEBC. Can Ruto mend the trust deficit surrounding the electoral body?

-Dr Ndonye is a senior lecturer at Kabarak University’s Department of Mass Communication