Why ODM leader might support Ruto's re-election bid in 2027
Michael Ndonye
By
Michael Ndonye
| Sep 05, 2025
President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga during the official opening of the Sub-County headquarters offices in Rangwe, Homa Bay county, on May 30, 2025. [File, Standard]
Raila Odinga aka Baba is no longer the face of resistance that we once knew. The enigma himself is redefined and redeployed for a different purpose. As Kenya’s politics shift, and as years move on for the veteran of five presidential bids, Baba may have to embrace the very system he once vowed to dismantle.
After decades of defiance, Raila now stands at a political junction where the path forward may lead not to State House, but to strategic surrender.
In 2027, supporting President William Ruto will not be a betrayal; it will be a matter of survival for Raila. Baba owes no explanation or apology to anyone; he fought a good fight and kept the faith.
Raila was checking governments before I even checked into this world. He roared through my teenage years via the popular Malkiat Singh History and Civic textbooks, marching beside me through my university years. Now I’m in my early 40s raising adolescent children whom I am teaching to fight their own battles. So why would anyone expect me to outsource my political agency to him come 2027?
The signs that he has resigned to the ruling regime are unmistakable. Raila himself hinted at backing Ruto until 2027. Musalia Mudavadi later confirmed that Raila’s support for Ruto is not just symbolic, but strategic. Even Siaya Governor James Orengo, Raila’s long time ally and one of the most consistent voices behind his presidential bids, recently declared, “Where Raila leads, we will follow.”
For Orengo to abandon his regular declarations of Raila’s sixth presidential run suggests a paradigm shift. Raila’s 2022 defeat, despite the backing of the then President Uhuru Kenyatta and a more vigorous campaign, marked a turning point.
If he couldn’t win then, the odds of mounting a credible challenge in 2027 against Ruto are even slimmer. Moreover, the “Young Turks” of the 1990s are no longer young. Many are retiring, and those who remain are seeking continuity and protection and not revolutions.
Ruto, meanwhile, is recalibrating. With Mount Kenya’s support waning, he sees Raila’s endorsement as a strategic lifeline. Although Raila might be retiring, his influence in Luo Nyanza and other regions remains potent. If Ruto can secure even a fraction of Raila’s former base, he could offset Mount Kenya political losses and secure re-election.
Moreover, the ODM party, once a strong pillar in the Kenyan political landscape, is finally fracturing. Young leaders like Babu Owino, Edwin Sifuna, and Caleb Amisi are overtly restless and have birthed Kenya Moja coalition to match ODM. Will ODM live beyond 2027?
For decades, Raila has been accused of destabilising regimes, from the 1982 coup attempt to his fierce opposition politics through the Moi, Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta regimes. But perhaps, like Alfred Nobel, the inventor of explosives who later founded the Nobel Peace Prize, Raila seeks redemption.
In 1888, Nobel read a mistaken obituary calling him “the merchant of death,” published by a French newspaper after his brother’s death. Condemned for profiting from explosives, Nobel, then 55 and holding hundreds of patents, was shaken by how history might judge him. In 1895, he rewrote his will, dedicating most of his fortune to creating the Nobel Prize. When he died in 1896, the world discovered his final legacy: Honouring achievements in science, literature, and peace.
Nobel’s mistaken obituary became the catalyst for one of history’s most enduring legacies. Raila may be on a similar path, seeking to rewrite his legacy not as a perpetual dissenter, but as a statesman who chose unity over division in his last days. His battles with regimes have cast him as a political antagonist in Kikuyu and Kalenjin strongholds.
Raila made peace with the Kikuyu in 2022. That was chapter one. Now, extending an olive branch to the Kalenjin; another community historically bruised by his confrontations with power, could complete the arc. Think about it!
Dr Ndonye is the Dean of Kabarak University’s School of Music and Media