What pact between President and Gideon means for Kalonzo

In the shifting sands of Kenyan politics, alliances are rarely permanent, and friendships often mask deeper intentional recalibrations. The recent union between President William Ruto and Kanu Chairman Gideon Moi (GM) is more than a handshake. It is a realignment that will shape the politics of Uhuru Kenyatta and Kalonzo Musyoka leading up to 2027. Why is that so?

Gideon’s withdrawal from the Baringo senatorial race was not just a tactical retreat; it was a coded signal. Many believe that had GM contested, he would have easily reclaimed the Baringo senatorial seat.

Therefore, GM’s decision to step aside suggests a phone call, perhaps from the President himself, asking, “My Brother Gideon, can you surrender Baringo to me?” Then the GM says, “Let me call after a moment, your excellency.”

One imagines GM then calling Kalonzo: “Ndugu yangu, the President wants me to quit the Baringo senatorial race for his candidate. What’s your take?” Kalonzo, caught between loyalty and disbelief, might have replied, “Ndugu, if he wants it, give it to him”. This imagined exchange, while speculative, underscores the emotional and political weight of the moment. And was likely the case!

The irony is sharp. Ruto, once the self-styled champion of the hustler nation, built his rise by vilifying what he called ‘dynasties’, which he openly named, including the Moi, Kenyatta, and Oginga Odinga, and by extension, the entire Kanu brotherhood. He cast them as relics of entitlement, unfit for the new Kenya.

Yet in 2025, the same president is now reconciling with the very household he once disavowed. The narrative has shifted: For 2027, Ruto no longer needs the masses alone; he badly needs their shepherds—the kingpins. And having GM on his side, the Rift Valley vote is settled.

This is where Kalonzo’s dilemma begins. His long-standing friendship with Gideon  was not just personal—it has always been strategic. Together, they co-piloted the One Kenya Alliance, seeking to offer a third force in the 2022 elections. Though the alliance faltered, their bond remained intact. But politics, like chess, rewards those who move early.

Gideon has now made his move, which has technically settled the tension in the Rift Valley. The Kalenjin nation has transcended binary divisions; they now stand in one accord. Their ululation at Kabarak on Friday, October 10, 2025, stirred by the presence of their two united leaders, echoed a collective affirmation that needed no further translation.

The implications are profound. First, the Rift Valley, once politically fragmented, is now one. The tensions in Baringo, where residents felt torn between loyalty to the Moi legacy and allegiance to the presidency, have dissolved.

The region now breathes easier knowing its sons are no longer at odds.

Second, Ruto’s reunion with the Moi household is not just symbolic; it’s tactical.

While addressing Baringo residents at Kabarak, Ruto intimated that he knows “every corner” of Moi’s home. Of course, having been mentored by the late President Moi himself, this was a homecoming of sorts, and it positions Ruto as a perfect protégé of Moi’s, reclaiming his roots.

Third, for Gideon, this is a moment of reconciliation. He returns not just to the political fold, but to a man who once tarnished his family name, branding them as dynasties and ghettoising their legacy. By choosing rapprochement over resentment, GM reclaims his father’s philosophy of Peace, Love, and Unity.

Fourth, Kanu itself is rejuvenated. The return of its former secretary general to familiar terrain smooths the political landscape in the Rift Valley. The party now finds itself at the centre of a new calculus.

Fifth, Ruto’s alliance with GM gives him access to other corners where Kanu’s influence lingers, places where Kalonzo and Uhuru Kenyatta still hold sway. With Gideon as a bridge, Ruto can navigate these terrains with ease.

And finally, with Uhuru inching closer to the fold, the math is indeed ‘mathing’. The arithmetic of 2027 is being rewritten, not in manifestos, but in quiet reconciliations. Politics, after all, is not about who shouts loudest; it’s about who moves smart.

Dr Ndonye is Dean of Kabarak University’s School of Music and Media