Ground shifting beneath Ruto, Raila feet in Western

The realignments currently unfolding in Western region’s politics should be a cause for concern for President William Ruto and his key allies Raila Odinga, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi.

The intensity with which both Kenya Kwanza and opposition leaders from the region are criticising President Ruto’s administration does not bode well for the ruling coalition’s prospects in the region as the 2027 General Election approaches.

Political analysts suggest that Ruto’s support in the region has declined sharply in recent months. In the last election, he secured a majority of votes in Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties and performed reasonably well in Kakamega.

However, his key regional lieutenants, Wetang’ula and Mudavadi, are facing increasing hostility at the grassroots—particularly after Raila and his ODM party joined the government following last year’s youth-led protests.

“The Musalia-Wetang’ula-Raila axis will struggle to deliver even 10 per cent of the Luhya vote to Ruto in the former Western Province. Their support has taken a severe hit and continues to diminish,” says political commentator Martin Andati.

As the political ground shifts beneath them, it appears Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are not simply sitting on their hands. Wetang’ula is rumoured to have used proxies to register a new political party less than a year after folding his Amani National Congress (ANC) into Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), while Mudavadi is reportedly engaged in a damage-control campaign.

Several ODM and Kenya Kwanza MPs from the region — who are expected to support the so-called broad-based government — are increasingly aligning with Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya’s call for a political reset in the region.

Tawe Movement

The traditional political establishment appears to be crumbling, with the likely casualties being leaders allied to Raila’s ODM, Wetang’ula’s Ford-Kenya, and Ruto’s UDA.

Already, some UDA legislators have all but severed ties with the party, though their next political homes remain unclear. Others, such as Kakamega Senator Bonny Khalwale (UDA), have hinted at the formation of a new party.

Meanwhile, Natembeya’s supporters are urging him to quit Eugene Wamalwa’s Democratic Action Party-Kenya (DAP-K) and establish his own party to consolidate his fast-growing “Tawe Movement.”

“Natembeya came in with an unconventional approach and dismantled the old order built around Wetang’ula, Raila and Mudavadi. He speaks the language of the people, he’s charismatic and courageous—qualities the electorate is looking for,” adds Andati.

According to him, Natembeya is being targeted by a deliberate government-sponsored campaign, using politicians to attack him at rallies and on social media platforms.

Nzoia Sugar deal

Aside from Natembeya, another political axis is forming, led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna. Members of this group include MPs Jack Wamboka (Bumula), Majimbo Kalasinga (Kabuchai), Godfrey Osotsi (Vihiga), and Caleb Amisi (Saboti).

Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah is also pursuing his own political agenda, with a potential presidential run.

Key issues fuelling tensions between the region’s leaders and Ruto’s administration include the controversial leasing of Nzoia Sugar Company to tycoon Jaswant Rai and the soaring cost of living, which triggered last year’s anti-Finance Bill protests.

Nairobi politician and former Town Clerk Philip Kisia argues that the Luhya community deserves a more influential role in shaping the country’s political future, especially given its numerical strength.

“The Luhya are officially the second-largest ethnic group, but in reality, they may be the largest voting bloc,” says Kisia.

He accuses local leaders of prioritising personal interests over the community’s socio-economic and political advancement. He warns that divide-and-rule tactics will no longer work, and that any leader attempting to use outdated strategies will be swept aside by the new political tide.

Kisia also laments that the community has been marginalised in terms of development and job opportunities, despite being well represented at the highest levels of government.

“We are told Musalia is the third most powerful figure in the Executive and Wetang’ula heads the Legislature. Yet in private, they admit that the region has been shortchanged. It’s time they allowed new leadership to emerge,” says Kisia.

Mudavadi has denied being behind the newly registered Democratic National Alliance (DNA), dismissing such claims as baseless and reaffirming his commitment to the UDA merger.

Wetang’ula plot

DNA’s registered officials include columnist and former ANC secretary-general Barack Muluka, who now serves as DNA’s secretary-general. Godfrey Kanoti is listed as the party leader.

In his supremacy battle with Natembeya, Wetang’ula is said to be deploying Kenya Kwanza-affiliated leaders in Trans Nzoia, such as Woman Representative Lillian Siyoi, Senator Allan Chesang, and Kiminini MP Kakai Bisau. In Bungoma, he has mobilised County Assembly members to counter his critics.

The Speaker is reportedly grooming a Bungoma MCA to challenge Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga in 2027.

During a recent fundraiser presided over by Sifuna in Kabuchai, Kalasinga accused Wetang’ula of scheming against him.

“The people of Kabuchai are my bosses and their voice is supreme. No party—however powerful—can override the will of the people. Wetang’ula’s wicked scheme is doomed to fail,” Kalasinga declared.

Sifuna, meanwhile, has publicly opposed ODM’s collaboration with the government and has been vocal in rejecting Ruto’s re-election bid. Politically, he seems to be leaning towards the anti-Wetang’ula and anti-Mudavadi camp in Western Kenya.

Andati predicts that Sifuna could win the Nairobi governor race in 2027 or senate re-election —even without ODM’s backing.

“Every step he and other outspoken Luhya leaders take is drawing national attention. Watch Sifuna closely—he may either go for the governor’s seat or retain the Senate seat and later resign to join government,” Andati adds.

Bonny Khalwale, another unsettled figure in the political landscape, says he was warned by a senior figure in government to stop criticising the administration, reminding him of his status as Majority Chief Whip.

“I’ve rejected the notion that Luhyas don’t matter. In 2027, the Abaluhya will be counted. I respected my elders—Mudavadi and Wetang’ula—but now they must give way,” said Khalwale last week.

Wamalwa seniority

Sources say Khalwale had considered joining Wamalwa’s DAP-K but had second thoughts. He is now reportedly exploring an alliance with Natembeya, though he also has links to the little-known United Patriots Movement (UPM), which he co-owns with former Machakos Senator Johnson Muthama.

Tensions are also simmering between Wamalwa and Natembeya, with the former asserting seniority, having served as a Cabinet Minister and MP for over a decade.

However, Andati argues that Wamalwa lacks grassroots support, unlike Natembeya, who has rapidly built a strong presence in the region since entering politics.

Raila, too, appears to have considerable work to do if he still intends to contest the presidency. His dwindling influence in the region is increasingly discussed in local political gatherings.

“Mimi nimejipanga mtu asikudanganye. Chama ya ODM kwa miaka 20 imekuwa mzuri. (I’m ready—don’t be deceived. ODM served us well for 20 years). The problem is, after getting our votes, Baba runs to the winner, collects goodies and takes them to Nyanza,” Khalwale told a cheering crowd in Butere.

The outspoken MP also accused the government of sidelining the region in development and dismissed corruption allegations against Natembeya as politically motivated.

“When they arrested him, I expected headlines about millions looted. Instead, they claimed he failed to account for only Sh1.2 million, which the governor explained was his imprest,” said Khalwale.