Ruto's Trojan Horses for 2027

President William Ruto appears to be strategically placing Trojan Horses in different regions of the country, to run either run as friendly opponents in the 2027 race or as spoilers to cause confusion and split votes.

Co-operatives and MSMEs Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya has of late been sending mixed signals on the evolving situation in president’s camp and hid dwindling popularity ratings in western Kenya.

He recently sensationally claimed that it is becoming difficult to sell President Ruto in Western because key leaders from the region were getting ejected from political parties and parliamentary committees.

This week, he again raised eyebrows when he lamented in parliament that he had been reduced to a beggar because his ministry is seriously underfunded.

President Ruto’s game plan appears to be to get across the country and pick pockets of votes from the various regions similar to what the Kanu regime did in 1997 when the entire country wanted him out.

Political pundits and rivals have been left asking if Oparanya is indeed sulking, or he is playing a Trojan Horse game for Ruto to cause confusion in Western Kenya, where the Linda Mwanannchi and Tawe Movement waves are causing serious ripples.

Trans Nzoia governor George Natembeya is among those who think Ruto is desperately employing all kinds of mechanisms to retain power accusing him of instigating confusion in ODM, so that the likes of Opranya can abandon the party and seek sympathy votes in Western region.

The strategy would then culminate into splitting the Luhya vote to Ruto’s advantage, as he also fights to pick some support in the region.

"They are doing everything possible to divide the Luhya vote and this is why the State is funding infighting in ODM that would see the CS quit the party and government and run for the presidency thus splitting the Luhya vote," he said.

 He argued that Oparanya alongside some Luhya leaders allied to the Kenya Kwanza government have been assigned to ensure the region's vote is divided to Ruto's advantage.

He called on Western voters to be wary of the plot and rally behind the united opposition saying: "Let us reject these schemes and rally behind the united opposition," said Natembeya.

Political strategists however see Oparanya’s motive in a bigger lens, they opine that the CS could be joining former CS’ such as Moses Kuria (Trade) and Eliud Owalo (ICT) who has also declared his presidential bid.

Pundits think heir political moves were orchestrated either by the National Intelligence Service (NIS) or State House operatives to divide opposition strongholds.

Oparanya’s outbursts have received no condemnation from Kenya Kwanza hawks, who have instead focused on accusing former president Uhuru Kenyatta over unsubstantiated allegations that he is funding the opposition, especially Edwin Sifuna’s fast rising Linda Mwananchi ODM faction.

Oparanya was in the National Assembly on Thursday, claiming his office was underfunded and that he had been reduced to being a beggar to his juniors, remarks that political observers maintain could not have been made publicly if they were genuine.

"I have to come here all the time to get money for my office's operations. I don't know if my office is recognized as one of the offices of CS in this government or not. I will plead with you that at least I should get an allocation appropriately pointed out by the PS Cooperatives, that at least I need Sh200 million to enable my office to operate."

He added: "I have to depend on these PSs. When I go out, I'm stuck out there, there's no fuel, and I have to call any of them because they’re accounting officers, they always sign for themselves. So I don't want to continue being a beggar from my juniors... I hope you've heard that."

 Recently, Oparanya threatened to quit ODM in bid to unite the Luhya community and advance the political and economic interests of the Western region.

Oparanya said unity within Luhya land was a recurring subject in his discussions with the late Cyrus Jirongo. He also openly expressed his readiness to quit ODM, where he previously served as deputy party leader, if his affiliation to the party was seen as an obstacle to regional cohesion.

“All the time when I met Jirongo, we could always speak about the unity of Luhya land. One day I asked him, “am I the problem because of being in ODM?” I told him that if I am the problem, I was ready to leave ODM so that we can unite and form another party that will unite the Western region,” he said during the Jirongo burial ceremony in December last year.

He said his priority remained the unity and the progress of the Luhya community while describing the region as a “sleeping giant” owing to its numerical strength and economic potential.

Earlier this month, Oparanya joined National Assembly Speaker and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi in a breakfast meeting with over 30 MPs from the  Luhya community to discuss how they would demand the Deputy Presidency post from President William Ruto as an irreducible minimum for them to campaign for his re-election.

Likewise, Moses Kuria who resigned in July last year from the Cabinet after serving as a Cs for Investments, Trade and Industry, Cs for Public Service, Delivery and Performance Management and later as Ruto’s Senior Economic Advisor resigned ‘to pursue personal interests’ and appeared to be opposing Ruto’s administration before being nominated as the president’s ground mobilizer in Mt Kenya region.

During the Mbeere North by-election, Kuria fielded a candidate through his Chama Cha Kazi party, a strategy that worked in favour of the ruling United Democratic Alliance Party as his candidate split votes, giving UDA’s Leonard Wa Muthende a win albeit by a smaller margin.

Kuria later ditched his party to join UDA and is now the lead campaigner in Ol Kalou by election that is set to happen on July 16.

Owalo, who served as Deputy Chief of Staff before his resignation in January this year was also faced with skepticism as observers questioned his ability to mount a serious Presidential campaign, with some labelling him Ruto’s project to secretly split votes in Nyanza ahead of the 2027 elections

Critics questioned the timing of his departure, claiming it was merely a strategic deployment by the President. He however dismissed the claims, maintaining that he was pursuing an independent political path.

 “I am not Ruto’s project. I cannot be anybody’s project because I am above that,” Owalo stated.

He defended his political decisions, pointing out that his past support for Ruto had always been transparent and publicly declared.

“In 2019, when I decided to work with President William Ruto, I came out and made it public that I would support him. I campaigned for him until 2022 when we won the election,” he said.

According to Herman Manyora, a political analyst, it was possible that even Oparanya was secretly working with Ruto to dehorn the growing popularity of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna especially in Western region.

“Oparanya said he has no money and has been turned into a beggar, those are not things that you tell the public. You take it up with the Head of Public Service and if you can’t manage you accelerate it to the President. Given that he is telling us that, you can see that something is wrong somewhere and he is passing a message that he is not happy with what is going on. That makes the government look bad,’ he noted.

He also thinks it is possible to have a scheme where he is working with President Ruto so that he (Oparanya) runs for office on pretext of having differed with Ruto.

“I think that script is too cheap and even the villagers won’t buy it for the single reason that it will be easy to read. This will also not work because of the Edwin Sifuna factor. The country and western region have rallied behind Sifuna,’ said Manyora

He further observed that while there was a possibility of a grand scheme roping in Oparanya, Kuria and Owalo, each of them was playing their game.

 ‘Maybe Owalo genuinely thinks he can be President but for Oparanya, who is a seasoned politician, doesn’t appear to want to be in this government. Remember he almost turned down his current position because he had been looking to become the CS Finance,’ he added

“Sometimes, those in power plants cause confusion which leads to voter apathy. In Mt Kenya, for instance, Kuria says things to plant doubts in the minds of people and this works for Ruto because it may serve him by getting votes no matter how small a number.

Professor Gitile Naituli said: "I think that Oparanya is trying to make himself relevant by showing that he has a problem with the President and he seems to be laying the ground for resignation. The other reason behind his antics could be that the government has realized that Edwin Sifuna has taken over the entire western region, and to divide that community, Oparanya is being used to divide the Sifuna bloc." 

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