Duping Kenyans: How Ruto's 2027 bid was folded into Mbadi's budget

President William Ruto is trudging back to the campaign trail with renewed vigour after successfully incorporating his re-election bid into the country’s multi-trillion budget.

It was a budget many had hoped would be the masterstroke to change the fortunes of an already choking economy and ease the burden off the shoulders of Kenyans.

However, one person is smiling to the campaign podiums after securing political windfall against rivals through the budget.

The budget that was presented by Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi on Thursday contained significant allocations for projects that have been the backbone and the selling points in the President’s re-election agenda.

In the process, Kenyans will have to shoulder the burden of a Sh1.147 trillion budget deficit, consequently elevating public debt to support Ruto’s goals.

On the flipside, some of the proposals provide few guarantees on the government’s commitments to ease the cost of living pressures that Kenyans are grappling with.

Yesterday, the President rolled out his new campaign talking points anchored on the flagship projects that his administration has prioritised in the budget as he resumed politicking in Kakamega after a brief political hiatus occasioned by his trips abroad. 

Ruto touted the Affordable Housing Programme as a double-edged sword against poverty, explaining that it simultaneously provides decent housing and creates thousands of local construction jobs for young people. He accused his critics of having nothing to offer the public. He narrated how his administration had prioritised life changing programmes

His agenda

“In five counties in Western Kenya, we have invested heavily in affordable housing, market projects, and hostels for students. These projects are creating jobs and improving livelihoods,” he said.

Critics, however, believe the budget has been designed to support Ruto’s re-election and position his agenda at the centre of the process at the expense of the priorities of Kenyans.

Economists warn that the country’s debt could balloon beyond Sh13 trillion within the next financial year as a result of the process that has created budget deficits, while prioritising Ruto’s political interests with huge allocations.

For a man who has been on an early campaign trail for nearly the last two years, the budget that was presented by Mbadi has handed him a boost.

His flagship Affordable Housing Programme which is overshadowed with controversies, received an allocation of Sh50.6 billion, while social housing units received an allocation of Sh20.9 billion.

Additionally, the construction of roads that has been a constant feature in his forays across the country has also received an allocation of Sh220 billion.

Budget allocations for his office stand at Sh7.49 billion and an additional Sh13.64 billion under the State House budget. Additionally, critics claim some proposals, such as the Sh3.9 billion for village elders is deceptive and a campaign tool.

Carefully curated

Observers, economists and a section of Kenyans believe the document was carefully curated to prepare and support President Ruto’s re-election campaign while turning their backs on the teething problems threatening ordinary Kenyans.

Despite calls to reduce the overall expenditure by Kenyans that the CS noted came out during engagements, Treasury is still pushing ahead with Sh4.82 trillion budget for the 2026/27 financial year.

Mukurwe-ini MP John Kaguchia described the budget as “deceptive,” arguing that its financing structure could deepen Kenya’s debt burden while squeezing taxpayers further.

 Kaguchia questioned the government’s revenue projection, which targets about Sh3.6 trillion in the next financial year — an increase of more than Sh1 trillion from current collections.

The legislator also alleged that government spending priorities are skewed, claiming that large amounts are directed towards non-essential expenditure while key sectors remain underfunded.

He cited State House spending, alleging it had consumed about Sh4.5 billion in three months, while essential services such as education and healthcare continue to experience delays

“The little money that is being collected is going to be paying loans. And the balance is being taken to finance politics in a partisan manner,” he said.

Wangai Ndirangu, an analyst, said the budget exposes deeper structural weaknesses in Kenya’s economy and does not adequately reflect national priorities.

He questioned sectoral allocations, noting that agriculture — which supports about 65 per cent of rural livelihoods and contributes roughly 21 per cent of GDP — received only about 4.8 per cent of the budget.

Salesio Thuranira, an observer, termed the budget as a campaign document designed to aid Ruto’s re-election.

“Accusations that budgets are politically motivated are common in Kenyan politics, and this budget is no exception. Whether it is deliberately curated for re-election is a matter of intense speculation and interpretation. The budget allocates substantial funds to programmes aligned with the President’s Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (Beta). Critics argue these programmes serve as a campaign toolkit, allowing the administration to point to tangible deliverables as the 2027 elections approach.”

Some observers believe the proposals threaten to worsen the economic situation for Kenyans through misplaced priorities.

Communication researcher at Maseno University, Charles Nyambuga, described the budget as populist and designed to help President Ruto’s re-election.

“The main question remains how the government intends to bridge the financing gap without imposing additional taxes on citizens. The question I want to ask is: how is he going to fill the gap? Definitely, this is a budget that I would describe as populist. It appears to have been structured in a way that could help secure re-election.”

Prof Nyambuga argued that Kenya is living beyond its means and questioned how the government would finance the shortfall.

“Definitely, we are living beyond our means. The real question is how the government intends to fill that gap, or whether it is misleading Kenyans about what it will actually be able to deliver”.

Tax collections

Although the government has indicated intentions to improve compliance in tax collections, questions still abound the reasons the government settled on an expanded Sh4.8 trillion budget despite its domestic struggles in improving its revenue collections.

But Joshua Nyamori, a lawyer and a UDA operative believes the President is focused on restoring the economy and has prioritised projects and programmes that are a priority to Kenyans.

“Many of the decisions he (Ruto) has taken have been difficult and, on the face of it, unpopular. However, in the long run, wananchi are beginning to see the benefits. I therefore see the President’s focus as restoring the economy rather than preparing for the next election.”

He defended the plans to borrow to plug the budget deficit, arguing that even developed countries borrow funds to support their budgets.

 “Even the US borrows and carries a much larger debt burden than Kenya. The key question is what the debt is used for and whether it is managed properly. In my view, unlike previous administrations that borrowed heavily to finance recurrent expenditure, this government is using debt to finance development projects. In addition, the President has introduced innovative approaches to debt utilisation, making it more sustainable and manageable than in the past,” said Nyamori.

Prof XN Iraki, an economist at the University of Nairobi, argues that the budget is unlikely to bring immediate economic relief to Kenyans.

“The prices of goods and services will not fall, nor will salaries, wages or profits for entrepreneurs rise as a result of this budget. It was essentially a balancing act, haunted by the ghosts of the 2024 protests while keeping an eye on the 2027 elections. As for living beyond our means, Kenya has almost always done so. When was the last time the country recorded a budget surplus?”

 Additional reporting by Rodgers Otiso and Phares Mutembei