Final term governors on the verge of political oblivion

As the 2027 General election draws ever closer, several governors currently serving their second and final terms are facing uncertainty over their political future.

While a number of them have been vocal about picking a side to support in the upcoming Presidential contest, others have chosen to sit on the fence, probably waiting for the right time to make their move.

During the Broad Based Government Parliamentary Group meeting held on Monday last week, 23 Governors were present, but several notable county heads who are in their final terms were missing in action, raising questions about their political future. 

One of the notable absentees who is currently serving his last term is Kajiado Governor Joseph Ole Lenku, who is a man at a crossroads. Speculation has been mounting over his next move.

Lenku has served two consecutive terms, having first been elected on a Jubilee ticket in 2017 before winning on an ODM ticket in 2022. His allegiance to the party that got him into office has been in question after he missed the Broad-Based Government Parliamentary Group meeting held on Monday.

On Saturday 15th August, while attending a function in Imaroro ward where Democracy for the Citizens Party DCP Kajiado Gubernatorial aspirant Kanar ole Seki and Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua were, Lenku confirmed his Senate bid.

Senator Wambua urged Lenku to join Wiper to contest for the Senate seat, backing his bid. However, during a Seventh Day Adventist church service attended by President William Ruto and Orange Democratic Movement Party Leader Oburu Oginga in Kiserian, Kajiado county on 14th June last month, ODM deputy party leader Simba Arati said that the party had decided that Lenku will be in charge of all ODM campaigns in the country.

Lenku has been a tough critic of State House Comptroller Katoo Ole Metito, who is seeking to succeed him on a UDA ticket.

Another Governor who was conspicuously absent is Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga. Kahiga succeeded the late Wahome Gakuru, and he is completing his second term.

After being around former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua after his impeachment, Kahiga seemed to have shifted his stance after he rallied his people to support the Government.

In April, during a function attended by President Ruto in Nyeri, Kahiga said that Ruto's administration was working, adding that critics should allow the President to work for his people.

Speaking on Friday in Mukurwe-ini, Mutahi made clear his intention to vie for the Nyeri senatorial seat, stating that he would seek support when the right time comes. He, however, did not indicate what party he would be vying on. He was elected on a UDA ticket in 2022.

Kahiga has not been seen around Gachagua in recent months.

Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o has completed his two terms as Governor after one term in the inaugural Senate. While he has been silent on the current politics in the country, Nyong'o has had an illustrious career in politics both nationally and in Luo-Nyanza. As the late Prime Minister began campaigns for the African Union chairperson seat in 2024, Nyong'o was appointed acting ODM party leader but since Raila's demise, he has not been actively involved in ODM matters.

President Ruto has however, picked him to spearhead the Beyond Vision 2030 conversation alongside Korean Professor Hiroyuki Hino.

Apart from the notable absentees, several Governors who were present at the PG are finishing their time in office with puzzles to solve ahead of the General election.

Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru rose to fame after being appointed by Fourth President Uhuru Kenyatta to become the first Devolution and Planning Cabinet Secretary in 2013. After the National Youth Service Scandal, where millions of shillings were swindled under her ministry, Waiguru resigned after intense public scrutiny in 2015. Waiguru went on to contest for the Kirinyaga Gubernatorial seat in 2017 and is currently serving her second term. As her tenure comes to an end, her political options are narrowing. Waiguru was on the shortlist to become President Ruto's running mate in 2022 but did not get picked. 

In March this year, she hinted of eyeing the Deputy President seat in 2027 when she stated that the time was ripe for Kirinyaga to get one of the two top seats after other counties in Central Kenya had their time in those seats.

"Kiambu, Kenyatta's have been there twice, Nyeri had Kibaki and Rigathi even if he didn't stay long, Mt.Kenya East(Kindiki) have had the seat for three years, isn't it time for Kirinyaga to ascend also?" Waiguru said.

To support her argument, she said that the best bet for her and the region is President Ruto. Recent blows in Ol-Kalou have cast doubt on whether the region still supports the President similarly to how they did in 2022.

In May, she admitted that she had listened to her people and realised the region was bitter about Rigathi Gachgua's impeachment asking for their forgiveness on behalf of the Government. To complicate her math further, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and the ODM parth are fiercely fighting for the seat.

Kenneth Lusaka is also serving his final term as Bungoma Governor, and his political future hangs in the balance. Lusaka served as the first Bungoma Governor between 2013 and 2017 but lost to Wycliffe Wangamati in 2017 before making a comeback in 2022. Between 2017 and 2022, he served as the Senate Speaker in the Jubilee administration. Lusaka has been leading President Ruto's campaigns in the Western region under the banner of President Ruto’s Western Region Re-election Coordinator, of which he is the chairman. Lusaka has not made his next intention clear yet. Lusaka has the daunting task of uniting the region behind the President, even with the growing influence of Nairobi senator Edwin Sifuna and the Linda Mwananchi faction.

Muthomi Njuki of Tharaka Nithi County is also facing uncertainty over what to do next. Muthomi is a Ruto supporter, but he has not declared his intention to vie for any seat in the upcoming polls. With the conversation around the split of Mt.Kenya East and West continuing, Njuki believes that the split should happen. Speaking last month, Njuki said that a section of Mt.Kenya West was not reciprocating the support that the East had shown them over the years with Kindiki.

UDA Deputy Party Leader and Lamu Governor Issa Timamy served as Lamu's first Governor, but after losing to Fahim Twaha in 2017, he came back in 2022 under Mudavadi's ANC. When ANC folded to join UDA, he became the second deputy party leader of the ruling party. Having indicated that he will not contest any seat in Lamu in 2027, it remains to be seen where he will go next. Just last week, he was in the spotlight after Lamu Woman Representative Muthoni Marubu dumped UDA, citing harassment from Timamy, dealing a blow to President Ruto's re-election efforts at the Coast.

Others include Governor Benjamin Cheboi of Baringo County, Vihiga Governor Wilber Otichillo, Nandi Governor Stephen Sang and Wajir Governor Ahmed Abdullahi, who is the current Chairperson of the Council of Governors. President Ruto had deliberations with a number of them at State House on Wednesday evening, a day after the PG. They include Stephen Sang, Lusaka, Waiguru, Benjamin Cheboi, Muthomi Njuki and Ahmed Abdullahi (Wajir). The six were all present at the PG.

These Governors have a huge gamble to make on whether to support the current establishment or the opposition. Former Governors like Hassan Joho, Salim Mvurya, and Oparanya finished their terms and got cabinet appointments, while Josphat Nanok was appointed Deputy State House Comptroller. Others attempted to vie for Senate seats like Ali Roba and Jackson Mandago who succeeded, while others like Samuel Tunai lost. Senate Speaker Amason Kingi was voted speaker after finishing his two terms.