Edwin Sifuna, Rigathi Gachagua, Stephen Kalonzo, faces to watch

As the country gears towards next year’s general elections, Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka have emerged as the likely Opposition figures who will produce either a Presidential flagbearer or the running mate to one of the three.

It has also emerged that People’s Liberation Party leader Martha Karua may act as a stalemate breaker in case no progress can be made and neither side can win or gain an advantage.

To pave the way forward, a committee appointed by the united alternative government principals will on Tuesday meet to hammer out a formulae of the picking the most suitable candidate. The committee was picked by the United Opposition group that comprises of Kalonzo Musyoka, Karua, Eugene Wamalwa and Justin Muturi.

Trans Nzoia governor George Natembeya was also part of the team before he quit to join Sifuna's Linda Mwananchi.

Sources indicate that there exists different committees working under the umbrella of the united Opposition who have been working round the clock to identify a single Presidential candidate.

"Following recent political developments as a result of Edwin Sifuna’s forceful entry into the political scene, the opposition is going back to the drawing board to come up with another strategy that will factor in the Nairobi Senator," said a senior member in the group.

A report that had been issued before Sifuna’s entry indicated that Kalonzo was the most preferred Presidential candidate deputised by Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya. The latter has since joined hands with Sifuna to create a hurricane-like wave sweeping across western Kenya and among youthful voters.

However, with the Linda Mwananchi's entry into the Opposition’s matrix, Sifuna has replaced Natembeya, and his name, according to the source who spoke to The Standard last evening, is now being strongly touted as the Opposition’s candidate or, at the very least as a running mate.

“The scientific poll had indicated that the Kalonzo-Natembeya ticket was the most suitable, with Gachagua acting as the enabler of the ticket. The report showed that no joint ticket can win the Presidential ticket without Gachagua’s hand,’ a member of the Governance committee told The Standard.

With the unfolding political developments, only three candidates Gachagua, Sifuna and Kalonzo pose a credible threat to President Ruto in next year's presidential polls, with the rest being largely inconsequential.

The numeric strength from Mt Kenya and Western regions are the main reasons why Sifuna and Gachagua’s names have popped up in the polls, while Kalonzo’s national stature and his conciliatory tone have worked well for him

Already, Sifuna’s allies, such as Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale last week said a study by Chinese researchers predicted a Sifuna and Kalonzo Musyoka ticket would win 68% of the vote in the 2027 presidential election, leaving Ruto at 29 per cent.

“My brother Sifuna, you have a big challenge. Nimesoma utafiti jana usiku yenye imefanywa na wachinene. Imesema yakwamba sisi tulioko kwenye mrengo wa upinzani tukikufanya wewe candidate, alafu mfuasi wako awe Kalonzo Musyoka, utafiti unasema yakwamba wewe na Kalonzo, na Kalonzo akiwa deputy wako, mtapata 68 per cent of the votes, and William Ruto ataenda Sugoi na 29 per cent,” Khalwale said.

He insisted the figures were not his own and vowed to stand by Sifuna throughout his political journey.

“That is not me; hao ni wasomi kutoka China. Edwin, be strong; you are with me. The moment I have said like this, Luhyas have heard.”

The developments comes at a time when Gachagua announced that after his 55-conclave, his supporters urged have urged him to seek the presidential ticket of the United Alternative Government in the 2027 General Election.

He said he had been asked to convince his political colleagues that he was the strongest candidate to lead the coalition, citing his experience, leadership qualities, political networks and support across the country.

“Kenyans have told me that they have analysed and decided that Rigathi Gachagua needs to be the preferred presidential candidate of the United Democratic Government in the 2027 General Election,” he said on Monday after concluding 55-day Wamunyoro consultations.

Gachagua said Kenyans had also instructed him to persuade his colleagues that he was the best candidate to deliver victory in the first round: “They have instructed me to persuade my colleagues that I’m the best bet to guarantee a first-round win,” Gachagua said.

However, he said he would not stand in the way of efforts to unite the opposition around a single presidential candidate. He added that if another candidate is selected, he and his supporters would back the coalition’s choice.

 As Gachagua was releasing his address, his counterpart’s leaders signed a unity pact committing them to support a single presidential candidate in the 2027 General Election. Gachagua was represented by his Deputy Cleophas Malala.

The coalition principals met at the Windsor Hotel in Kiambu County on Monday, where they agreed to execute a Personal Unity Pledge and a Coalition Unity Agreement aimed at preventing internal divisions as they prepare to challenge Ruto.

The leaders said the agreements reflected their commitment to place the country's interests above individual political ambitions and party loyalties.

"We, the Principals of the United Alternative Government, have today taken a decisive step towards consolidating our unity and presenting the people of Kenya with a credible, democratic and transformative alternative government,” the principals said in a joint statement.

They added, “After extensive and candid consultations, we have unanimously agreed to execute a Personal Unity Pledge and a Coalition Unity Agreement, through which each Principal commits individually and collectively to remain united, participate in a credible process of selecting our presidential candidate, and thereafter fully support and campaign for the candidate chosen to carry our common mandate into the 2027 General Election.”

The pact requires every principal to remain united, participate in a credible process for selecting the coalition's presidential candidate and subsequently support and campaign for whoever emerges as the flag bearer.

According to Prof Gitile Naituli, an advisor in the Opposition, the unity pact also included the governance structuring detailing how they would solve their disagreements and how they would deal with nominations.

“The unity pact is a specific document showing the Principals' commitment, their personal pledges to commit to the Opposition even if one of them is not picked and also the unity pledge on the specific agendas that they want covered if they are elected next year,” he said.

He added that parties within the Opposition would each meet to endorse the unity pledges so that it becomes part of their manifesto.

A new committee within the Opposition has been formed, incorporating Sifuna and the United Alternative Government allies with the task of bridging the gap between Linda Mwananchi and the rest of the Opposition leaders.

“The committee laise between Linda Mwananchi and the Opposition leaders awaiting Sifuna and his team to identify themselves with a political party so that formal talks in the Opposition may commence,” a source said.

At the heart of the negotiations now is to convince Gachagua to drop his Presidential ambitions as he has been a staunch believer that the Opposition's presidential candidate will be determined by the number of votes each principal can marshal.

Gachagua has maintained that he has consolidated eight million votes from the Mt Kenya region and another two million from the South Rift and Maa regions, saying he remains the best-placed presidential candidate to face President William Ruto in next year's polls.

"The science of politics is numbers. For you to be elected President, numbers are central. Other considerations such as age, education, competence and handsomeness, or otherwise, are secondary," he said in an interview with The Standard on Wednesday.

Sifuna’s meteoric rise has also attractedinterest from members of the international community who have held private meetings with him to discuss local and international affairs.

Unlike Kalonzo and Matiang’i, whose positions as former Cabinet Ministers exposed them to international figures, Sifuna has only served as a one-term Senator and ODM Secretary General and has no history of mingling with international leaders in his capacity as the ODM’s spokesperson.

On Wednesday, Sifuna met with the British High Commissioner Matt Baugh at his residence in Nairobi.

 “Was a pleasure to have a chat with the British High Commissioner Matt Baugh at his residence in Nairobi this morning,’ Sifuna wrote on his social media platform.

He did not give details of their meetings but speculation was rife that their meetings since the meeting coincide with Sifuna’s high stakes political meetings, which has attracted attention from the government quarters who have picked on him by presenting him as an inexperienced leader.

On May 6, Sifuna met with EU Head of Delegation to Kenya Ambassador Henriette Geiger, and German Ambassador to Kenya Sebastian Groth at the German ambassador's residence to discuss local politics and international relations.

Analysts view Sifuna’s meeting with the Western diplomats as a sign of acceptance of his influence in the country and beyond.

According to John Andati, by accepting to publicly associate with Sifuna, the diplomats’ countries have recognized him as a key Opposition leader who commands respect from his supporters across the country.

 “The many meetings Sifuna held with diplomats have catapulted him as a key Opposition leader whose chances of being the Opposition’s flagbearer become higher day by day,” he said.

Gachagua has maintained that while scientific polls are useful, the reality of politics lies in the number of votes a presidential candidate can consolidate across regional voting blocs.

"I have consolidated the 3.8 million votes that supported Ruto in the 2022 General Election, the 1.2 million votes that went to the late ODM leader Raila Odinga and an additional 1.6 million eligible voters who did not turn out. My party will also get 50 per cent of the Rift Valley vote, especially in the South Rift," said Gachagua.

Another hurdle is to convince other Opposition leaders such as Karua and Matiang’i who have maintained that political negotiations alone were insufficient to determine the strongest candidate to face Ruto, arguing that the process must reflect the views of Kenyans.

"We all want this government out and a better government in. One way of achieving that is by presenting a credible candidate who resonates with a majority of Kenyans across the country," she said.

She proposed a nationwide presidential primary-style process, acknowledging that it might be difficult to organise but suggesting that scientific polling could form one of the key tools in guiding the selection.

Matiang'i has repeatedly maintained that scientific polling is the most rational and transparent approach to selecting the coalition's flag bearer.