Desperate William Ruto all out in battle for Western Kenya

President William Ruto has turned his attention to Western Kenya in an increasingly aggressive campaign to reclaim political grassroots support ahead of the 2027 General Election, as Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi movement gains traction across the region.

Observers believe the president's latest tactics for Western have exposed him as a desperate leader afraid of losing support in one of the regions expected to play a significant role in next year's General Elections. The new tactic is simple: deploy several foot soldiers to pitch tents in the area with bags of cash to dish out to residents as they push back against Sifuna.

The President and his allies have stepped up political activities in Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Vihiga and Trans Nzoia, deploying some of their most prominent political operatives to woo voters with development promises, political pledges and empowerment programmes.

The renewed push has transformed the region into one of the most fiercely contested political theatres ahead of the next presidential election.

For Ruto, the stakes are high, Western Kenya commands a substantial voting population, and any significant loss of support could complicate his re-election arithmetic, particularly if his support in other traditional political strongholds also comes under pressure.

Ruto appears to have calculated that forming the Broad-Based Government with former ODM leader Raila Odinga, and eventually benefiting from his political legacy following his death, would help secure the vote-rich Western region.

The strategy became even more critical after his fallout with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and the subsequent erosion of his support base in the Mt Kenya region.

But the President is facing an emerging political challenge in the form of Sifuna, whose Linda Mwananchi movement has in recent weeks expanded its activities beyond Nairobi and established a growing presence in Western Kenya.

Recent rallies by Sifuna and the Linda Mwananchi brigade in Trans Nzoia, Kakamega and Busia have attracted sizeable crowds and endorsements from influential local leaders, among them Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga, Bumula MP Jack Wamboka and Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale.

The Luhya Council of Elders and other influential political and opinion leaders have also associated themselves with the movement, giving Sifuna’s campaign a broader regional appeal.

The developments have unsettled Ruto’s political camp, prompting a sustained counter-offensive.

The Western Kenya political landscape is now characterised by a familiar spectacle during election cycles helicopters criss-crossing the skies, convoys of high-end vehicles navigating remote and dusty roads, and political leaders moving from one empowerment event to another.

The broad-based government political team is reported to be attending between eight and 10 events every week, with various leaders assigned specific areas to mobilise support for Ruto and popularise the “Two Term” campaign.

The political teams are also said to be raising nearly Sh20 million every week through fundraising activities targeting women and youth groups.

At the centre of the campaign is Ruto’s personal aide Farouk Kibet, who has emerged as a prominent figure in the President’s Western Kenya political mobilisation strategy.

Kericho Senator Aaron Cheruiyot has also been making regular tours of the region, participating in political gatherings and empowerment programmes as the administration seeks to consolidate support.

Farouk has been a patron and master of ceremonies at many of the empowerment events, at times overseeing several functions in a single day as the broad-based government machinery seeks to establish a sustained grassroots presence.

Ruto has also activated his political allies in the region, including National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa, Co-operatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka.

However, Farouk, Barasa, Cheruiyot and Lusaka appear to have taken a particularly visible role in the latest mobilisation efforts, with their political activities increasingly focused on women, youth and elderly groups.

Interestingly, much of the rhetoric at the empowerment programmes has revolved around Sifuna.

Government allies have accused the Nairobi senator of being a political project allegedly sponsored by former President Uhuru Kenyatta to divide the Western Kenya vote. They have also sought to portray him as inexperienced and politically inconsequential.

Cheruiyot has repeatedly attacked Sifuna, accusing him of allowing himself to be used by political forces seeking to advance interests outside the region.

At one of the political events, the Kericho senator used a bull analogy to describe Sifuna’s political trajectory.

 “Some people have been elected once as a Senator and they think they can just wake up one day and become President. I want to tell one who is young like me that Uhuru and his region cannot give power to someone outside their region and they are just using you like a bull that is being prepared for a slaughter,” said Cheruiyot while urging the region to refuse attempts to be used to divide the region and complicate the 2032 succession matrix.

Farouk has similarly questioned Sifuna’s political agenda, accusing him of being sponsored by Uhuru and seeking to divide the region.

 “They are roaming around disturbing residents to fundraise for them and yet they are leaders and these people have no agenda because they have been sent and i want to urge Luhya people to reject them because after Ruto the presidency will come to Western,” said Farouk.

The attacks illustrate how central Sifuna has become to the administration’s political messaging in Western Kenya.

But political analysts argue that the intensified government campaign could be evidence that the administration is worried about its standing in Western Kenya.

They describe the strategy as a counter-offensive built around development promises, political assurances and, in some cases, handouts in an effort to slow the momentum generated by Linda Mwananchi.

The analysts question whether such tactics can reverse the political tide.

Political analyst Martin Andati argues that the political ground in Western Kenya is becoming increasingly fluid, with more voters and local leaders gravitating towards Sifuna’s camp.

According to Andati, Sifuna is exploiting growing public appetite for political change by presenting Linda Mwananchi as a grassroots movement and building a network of local political allies.

He says the development has rattled Ruto’s political machinery.

Andati argues that the President could face a difficult road to re-election if he fails to rebuild his support in Western Kenya, saying Sifuna’s entry into the region has altered the political equation.

“Ruto secured only about 36 per cent of the Western Kenya vote in the last election, although some subsequent opinion polls had placed his support at approximately 18 per cent. However, his support could decline following Sifuna's increased political activities across Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Busia and Kakamega and if he loses those numbers, it becomes very difficult for him to be re-elected because where will he get the alternative numbers?” posed Andati.

He argues that Ruto’s 2022 victory relied heavily on support from Mount Kenya and the Kalenjin community and that a significant erosion of those numbers would create a difficult electoral equation for the President.

Andati also questions the government’s strategy for winning back Western Kenya, particularly against the backdrop of political promises made during the formation of the Kenya Kwanza coalition.

Among the commitments cited were increased government representation, road construction, revival of the sugar industry and implementation of other development projects.

The analyst argues that the administration has struggled to convince voters that these promises have been sufficiently fulfilled.

“The old script of buying voters with materialism will not work. You cannot use the 1992 or 1997 script in 2027 and if they do not change their messaging and strategy, then Ruto is doomed," said Andati.

He attributes the changing political environment to increased access to information, higher levels of education and voters’ growing ability to scrutinise political promises and demand accountability.

He describes Sifuna’s growing presence as a major development that could complicate government efforts to consolidate its support in the region.

Andati compares the emerging political momentum to the National Rainbow Coalition wave that swept across the country ahead of the 2002 General Election.

He argues that the traditional political influence of Mudavadi, Wetang’ula and former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya has been challenged by emerging leaders and shifting voter preferences.

“Why is it suddenly now that Mudavadi has time to be in Western?” Andati asked, suggesting that his absence from grassroots politics could affect his relationship with voters.

Political analyst Martin Oloo takes an even stronger position on the government’s empowerment programmes, arguing that they amount to attempts to buy political support through undue influence.

Oloo describes the programmes as illegal, unethical and contrary to the Elections Act, while arguing that the government’s heavy presence in Western Kenya demonstrates that it has recognised the possibility of losing support in the region in 2027.

He says Sifuna’s growing influence, coupled with the support of leaders such as Natembeya and Khalwale, is strengthening Linda Mwananchi’s political base.

“Sifuna has taken over control of the Western region and that is why Ruto and his team have retreated to old tactics of bribing voters. Intact the Empowerment Programmes are illegal and against the Election Act but with voters becoming more enlightened, it will be a mission impossible for Ruto to reclaim the region,” said Oloo.

The analyst believes the government is operating from a position of political vulnerability after losing popularity and political capital and creating what he describes as a significant trust deficit.

 “Ruto has lost trust in people due to many unfulfilled promises and therefore he is trying to recover support but his attempts may not get him as much of the Luhya vote as he hopes,” said Oloo.