COP31: Kenya and Africa push for a fairer climate deal

Today (Wednesday) marks the third day of COP31, arguably one of the most consequential, as Antalya brings together heads of state and government for a high-level summit expected to focus global attention on the urgent need for climate action.

For Kenya and Africa at large, the summit comes at a critical moment as the continent seeks to translate its climate diplomacy into tangible gains for a population increasingly exposed to droughts, floods and other climate-related shocks.

Environment Cabinet Secretary Deborah Barasa is leading Kenya's delegation, together with a host of dignitaries, experts and lawmakers.

Among the prominent leaders expected to address Today’s World Leaders Climate Action Summit are Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whose country hosted COP30 last year, and UN Secretary-General António Guterres, alongside other world leaders and senior representatives.

More than 100 leaders from 95 countries and seven international organisations are expected to participate, according to the Turkish government.

Since Sunday, Türkiye’s coastal city of Antalya has become the centre of global climate diplomacy, as governments, scientists, business leaders, campaigners and civil society representatives converge for the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31).

Long queues have characterised the opening days, with registration spilling into the second day as delegates streamed into the conference venue. Billed as one of the largest COP gatherings in history, the conference is expected to attract more than 100,000 participants.

Climate justice activists and representatives of Indigenous communities from different countries have continued to stage protests at the ANFAŞ Antalya Expo Centre, the expansive venue hosting COP31, calling for greater accountability and stronger action from world leaders on the climate crisis.

Kenya’s priorities on adaptation financing, climate resilience, renewable energy and access to international climate funds will feature prominently in the high-level discussions.

“Addressing climate change requires adequate financing, strong partnerships and decisive action. We must ensure that developing countries, particularly African nations, receive the support they need to strengthen resilience and confront the impacts of climate change,” said CS Barasa.

Negotiators will wrestle with some of the most critical questions facing the planet, chief among them being how to slow global warming and protect communities already living with its effects.

“Success in Antalya will not be measured by how often Africa speaks, but by how effectively Africa shapes the outcome,” said Nana Dr Antwi-Boasiako Amoah, Chair of the African Group of Negotiators.

One of the biggest challenges confronting world leaders is the growing prospect that the world will overshoot the 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming threshold set under the 2015 Paris Agreement, a target that has become the centrepiece of international climate action.

The United Nations and climate scientists have warned that the world is on course to breach this limit, raising fears of more intense heatwaves, prolonged droughts, devastating floods and irreversible damage to ecosystems.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned: “A supersized El Niño is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change.”

Among the top issues on the table is the push to electrify the global economy, with the COP31 Presidency seeking to increase electricity's share of global final energy consumption from about 23 per cent currently to 35 per cent by 2035.

Dubbed the “35 by 35” Global Electrification Pledge, the initiative seeks to accelerate the shift towards electricity in transport, buildings and industry, while reducing emissions and strengthening energy security.

For Kenya, although it is viewed as a regional leader in clean electricity generation, with renewable sources accounting for more than 81 per cent of electricity generated in the financial year ending June 2026, according to the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), inequality will be the biggest nightmare.

World Bank figures show that electricity access in Kenya remains uneven, with only 77 per cent of the population having access to electricity in 2024, while rural access stood at about 67 per cent.

This means that even as Kenya positions itself to benefit from the global shift towards electric transport, cleaner industries and renewable-powered economies, millions still face barriers to accessing electricity.

Murat Kurum, Türkiye's Minister of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change, who is also President of COP31, said: “We need the 35-by-35 target because until now electrification has not been underpinned by a clear global goal. This year’s energy crisis has shocked us out of our complacency and demonstrated the inherent vulnerability of dependence on energy imports. Electrifying the global economy is now essential to boost energy security, cut emissions, and drive economic growth.”

In an unusual arrangement between Türkiye and Australia, the two countries are sharing leadership of COP31. While Türkiye holds the host presidency, Australia is leading the formal negotiations, with its Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, serving as President of Negotiations.

The arrangement followed a contest between the two countries over hosting rights. The compromise gave Türkiye the presidency and responsibility for hosting the summit, while Australia took responsibility for chairing the negotiations.

At the heart of Africa's negotiating position is the sticky issue of climate finance.

For years, developing countries have argued that the industrialised nations whose historic emissions contributed most to global warming should provide financial support to countries facing its consequences.

For Kenya, there are concerns that its economic classification could complicate its access to international climate finance.

The World Bank classifies Kenya as a lower-middle-income country under its FY2027 classification, unlike neighbouring Uganda, which is classified as a Least Developed Country (LDC) and may benefit from funding windows prioritising the world's poorest nations.

Lydia Kimani, Executive Director of Agribusiness for Africa Markets, warns that using national income classifications to determine access to climate finance risks overlooking communities facing similar climate threats across borders.

“This is a dangerous narrative for our country because communities living on border lines share climatic conditions naturally, and using the border line to determine who receives climate finance and who doesn’t is discriminatory.”

Harriet Daniels, a delegate attending from Liberia, says: “African countries are asking for more direct access to funds that can reach their most vulnerable communities without excessive bureaucracies.”

Ahead of COP31, the East African Community Partner States adopted a common regional position calling for more accessible and predictable climate finance.

Climate-related disasters in the region have continued to exert pressure on public finances, with drought often destroying livestock and crops, while floods ravage communities and further damage water systems.

“We are faced with tough choices as Kenya, and what we are keen on is whether international climate finance can help the country prepare for these shocks before they become national emergencies. What we are seeing mostly is simply firefighting,” says Njeri Murage, a Kenyan activist attending the conference.

The African Group of Negotiators is rooting for the Global Goal on Adaptation, including clearer indicators for measuring whether countries are becoming more resilient. It wants a credible pathway for increasing adaptation finance and ensuring that commitments under the Paris Agreement are matched by the resources required to implement them.

“The success of COP31 will not be determined by the language of its final declaration. We have had too many declarations already. It will be determined by whether my farmers back home in Nigeria become more resilient to failed rains, livelihoods are secured, and whether the dream of clean energy becomes a reality. It should be about tangibles,” explains Jonas Oyedepo, a Nigerian ecologist attending the conference.

Africa has hosted five United Nations climate change conferences, beginning with COP7 in Marrakech, Morocco, in 2001, followed by COP12 in Nairobi, Kenya, in 2006, COP17 in Durban, South Africa, in 2011, COP22 in Marrakech in 2016, and COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in 2022.

Kenya's hosting of COP12 nearly two decades ago, some experts say, marked an important moment for African climate diplomacy, placing the continent's development and adaptation priorities at the centre of global discussions.

The last African-hosted summit, COP27 in Egypt, delivered a significant breakthrough for developing countries with an agreement to establish a dedicated Loss and Damage Fund to help vulnerable nations respond to the economic and physical destruction caused by climate change. It recognised a long-standing demand from developing countries that those who have contributed least to global warming are often among the hardest hit by its consequences.

Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa, is set to host COP32 next year as the global climate negotiations prepare to return to African soil.

This story was produced as part of the COP31 Climate Change Media Partnership, a journalism fellowship organised by Internews' Earth Journalism Network, Informed Earth and the Stanley Centre for Peace and Security.