Why Gen Zs' seeming endorsement should not over excite Matiang'i

Since jetting back to the country recently, Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr  Fred Matiang'i His recent triumphant tour of his Gusii backyard has evidently raised political stakes in the region, traditionally controlled by Orange Democratic Movement party leader Raila Odinga. The heroic welcome Dr Matiang'i received in his backyard is a clear sign that the region is eager to endorse his 2027 presidential bid.

The presence of key Gusii leaders including Kisii Governor Simba Arati, an ODM deputy party leader, spoke volumes. But the question is: Is Matiangi's backyard support enough to make him a formidable presidential contender?

Matiang'i also recently held a meeting with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, opposition luminaries Kalonzo Musyoka, Eugene Wamalwa and Martha Karua in what was widely seen as laying plans for a coalition arrangement ahead of 2027. 

Talks of Matiang'i running for the top seat were ignited by the Gen Zs during the anti-2024 Finance Bill. Matiang'i's name came up due to his 'impressive' track record during President Uhuru Kenyatta's regime. The youths believed that the country desperately needed a benevolent dictator to turn things around and that Matiang'i fitted that bill. 

Matiang'i was known for his no-nonsense commitment to service delivery in the dockets that he served. He is popularly remembered for the changes he introduced in the Ministry of Education, especially how he dealt with the then pervasive exam cheating menace. It is for this reason that the Gen Zs vowed to rally behind him as the best alternative to lead the country.

After the Gen Zs' vote of confidence, Matiang'i has continued to receive support from other politicians and has been backed by former president Uhuru Kenyatta-linked Jubilee Party. Several leaders from his Gusii region backyard have also joined the fray and rallied behind him. 

Matiang'i is hoping to leverage on his track record and the Gen Z endorsement to give President William Ruto a run for his money in 2027.

However, it is apparent, going by the reality of Kenya's politics, that the odds are inordinately stacked against Matiang'i. He should therefore not be excited by the Gen Z verbal support. First, going by past elections, young people rarely make real their political support count all the way to the ballot.

Most of them never register as voters and those who do, view the elections as a waste of time and do not turn up on the material day. They have traditionally played a peripheral role of aiding politicians in their campaigns hoping to get monetary benefits.

Secondly, although Matiang'i is hailed for his impressive track record, his past as a powerful CS in Uhuru Kenyatta's regime may come back to haunt him as he campaigns for the top job. Everything was not hunky-dory for him and the dark happenings during his tenure as Interior CS will most certainly be brought up during his campaigns and his political adversaries will capitalise on them. There were claims of extrajudicial killings with many bodies being found in River Yala. His defiance of court orders and his alleged involvement in the Ruaraka land row will also haunt him. In addition, Matiang'i will most certainly carry the sins of Uhuru's regime that left the country with a huge debt burden and with little to show for it. Indeed, it will be an uphill task for Matiang'i to shake off the 'Uhuru project' tag.

That said, Kenya's politics is mainly mobilised around tribes and regions. The politicians who can rally their regions solidly behind them and join hands with other so-called kingmakers from other regions will have an edge over others in the upcoming election. This explains why Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga have a head start owing to their impeccable regional mobilisation. Gen Zs are also susceptible to joining the bandwagon of ethnic mobilisation as elections draw closer. 

Matiang'i is obviously banking on his Gusii backyard to start him off. However, beyond his region, he is yet to cut a national image that can convince other regions to support him. Even with Jubilee Party and Uhuru's support, it remains a gargantuan task convincing Mt Kenya voters to support him. Matiang'i risks suffering the same fate that befell the late Simeon Nyachae, who was the Gusii region kingpin, but never became President as he was unable to cut a national image despite being a powerful minister in Moi's regime.

Owing to his inexperience in politics, seasoned politicians like Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua and Gachagua are highly unlikely to rally behind Matiang'i's bid for the top seat. Besides, joining hands with these seasoned politicians is likely to be detrimental to Matiang'i as the Gen Z wanted to support someone who has not been influenced by the mainstream politics. 

What's more, it is crystal clear that Kenyan politics is not issue-based. The country's electorate has not democratically matured to a point where someone like Matiang'i, a rookie in politics, can be elected based purely on his impressive track record in government as it happens say in the United States of America. To run for the presidency in Kenya, it appears, one must have been a career politician for years. Matiang'i cannot hold a candle to Ruto and Mr Odinga on this score. 

Then there is the issue of bankrolling a presidential election. It is crystal clear that running for the presidency is an expensive affair. This is partly why political bigwigs form alliances in the run up to the polls. Going by his few years in politics and government, it is apparent that Matiang'i may not have the financial muscle to flex in the coming elections.