How Ruto, master of political tricks, will make a leisurely return to State House in 2027

President William Ruto knows all too well that if he isn’t careful, the united opposition could turn their ambitions into reality and unseat him from the coveted presidency. So, what is he doing? Is he sitting idly by, waiting to be knocked off by his rivals? Not at all. Behind closed doors, the strategy room is likely buzzing with high-level planning and behind-the-scenes manoeuvres. Politics is rarely about doing what’s 'right'; it’s a silent, calculated game of persuasion and power. For Dr Ruto to remain unchallenged in office, he must employ the sophisticated political lessons he has learned from Moi, Kibaki, and Uhuru Kenyatta.

The 2027 presidential election will not be won on the basis of Mutahi Ngunyi’s “tyranny of numbers” alone, but rather on the cunning use of political tactics—a “tyranny of tricks.” The most skilled strategist and actor will prevail, and without a doubt, Ruto is that strategist, willing to work tirelessly to retain power by any means necessary.

As 2027 approaches, restlessness has gripped the country as politicians and political barons jostle for parties and alliance formation. The President and his team aren’t asleep either.

Ruto will enter the 2027 election with decades of elected office experience. His political journey began in 1992 as a key youth leader in the YK '92 youth league, rallying support for President Moi’s re-election. He was first elected MP for Eldoret North in 1997, a position he held for 15 years. He then served as Deputy President for 10 years before being elected president, a role he will have occupied for over four years by 2027. Altogether, this amounts to 35 years of solid political experience—making him Kenya’s most experienced, battle-tested leader in modern history.

That kind of experience cannot be faked or replaced by slogans, hashtags, or ethnic arithmetic. Leadership at this level demands intimate knowledge of how Parliament operates, how government functions, how counties live, and how ordinary people experience life. It means carrying responsibility, weathering failure, enduring heat, and still showing up day after day.

Ruto didn’t stumble into power by chance. He has walked every mile, explored every detour, and faced every obstacle head-on. His life has been forged in the fire of political warfare. Every chapter of his story is written in battles won, each ascent fueled by being underestimated, betrayed, and proven resilient. Ruto is a political maverick and an enigma. His wars are countless, and thus, he is Kenya’s most formidable political force.

History tells us that Moi tried to tame him, Kibaki sought to bury him, and Uhuru betrayed him. Each underestimated Ruto—and each lost. This isn’t mere political history; it is both a warning and reminder to all who dare challenge him in a political duel.

It all began within Kanu—the fortress of one-party rule and Moi’s kingdom—the establishment that devoured its young and buried its rebels. But Ruto did not play it safe. He refused to whisper in backrooms or wait for succession favours. Instead, he entered Kanu’s core, confronted the old lions, and overturned the entire table.

Next came President Mwai Kibaki. By then, Ruto had evolved from rebel to tactician. In 2005, during the constitutional referendum, he helped lead the Orange movement that defeated Kibaki’s draft constitution—a monumental political blow that shattered the confidence of the PNU elite.

In the aftermath of the 2007 election crisis, he was taken before the International Criminal Court. He did not flee or protest loudly. He stood firm, faced the accusations head-on, and walked out free—unbroken and unshaken.

Then came Uhuru Kenyatta. Let’s not rewrite history: Ruto was instrumental in making Uhuru president. The Rift Valley–Mt. Kenya handshake was no accident—it was Ruto’s strategic orchestration. He built the base, mobilised the vote, energised the grassroots, and delivered victory. But once power was secured, the knives were drawn. But Ruto did not panic. He did what he always does—went silent, then strategic. He returned to the people: town to town, church to church, market to market. While they plotted, he planted seeds.

Then came the ultimate alliance. Uhuru and Raila joined hands to block Ruto from ascending to State House.

Then, in 2022, without the State’s backing, without billionaire financiers, and cut off from handshake politics, Ruto won the election. When dragged before the Supreme Court to have it taken from him, he faced his opponents once more—and prevailed again.

Currently, a group of technocrats, united opposition leaders, and former State operatives are quietly forming coalitions and preparing a rival ticket. It is heavy on bureaucracy but light on grassroots appeal, built more on old networks than fresh ideas. Their political experience is limited; loud on social media, yet light on impact. Many are still struggling to establish themselves as leaders.

Whether you support him or not, one thing is clear: Ruto is poised to make a leisurely return to State House in 2027.

Benedict Toroitich is a communication lecturer and Researcher