Jubilee Party and Uhuru cannot help Matiang'i become president

Wannabe President Fred Matiang’i was a ‘bulldozer’ during the Uhuru Kenyatta regime, but he is increasingly showing he did not master basic political strategy. Not even from his mentor the late Simeon Nyachae did Matiang’i learn the art of grassroots mobilisation.

Apart from his irregular appearances alongside other opposition leaders, the former Education Cabinet Secretary assumes any road can take him to the presidency. It is not clear how he intends to get there. Or how to build the solid clout he needs to negotiate with his peers.

Jubilee Party of Dr Matiang’i’s mentor, Uhuru, is not a viable option for his presidential run, even though the party endorsed him as its deputy party leader and possible presidential candidate.

Jubilee, Uhuru’s second vehicle during his 2017 presidential run, has its owners. The party’s clout has steadily dwindled since it landed Uhuru a second presidential term in 2017.

The party turned out a majority in the National Assembly, with 172 of 290 elected MPs, after the 2017 General Election. The party also had 34 senators — elected and nominated, which was another majority. This is now history.

About 60 per cent of the party disappeared when Uhuru and his then Deputy President William Ruto clashed over presidential succession between 2021 and 2022. The party Matiang’i hopes to inherit is down to 32 MPs, some of them pandering to the whims of the regime. Most of the MPs are from the east of Mt Kenya region.

The face of the party is its secretary general Jeremiah Kioni, a front for the former president, without mobilisation clout of his own. Another deputy face of the party is former Gatanga MP David Murathe, who long lost touch and interest in elective politics.

Kioni lost his Ndaragwa parliamentary seat during the 2022 elections. His attempt to steady Jubilee flounders in the face of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s ‘Wantam’ rant against President William Ruto. This rage has no place for Uhuru, Murathe, Kioni, Matiang’i, and their Jubilee.

Kioni did not deliver votes when he was Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi’s United Democratic Forum presidential running mate in 2013. Their Amani Coalition, which had Kanu and New Ford Kenya in its ranks, came a lean third after Uhuru and Raila Odinga’s then Coalition for Reforms and Democracy.

Matiang’i, therefore, should not rely on Kioni or Murathe to help him ‘own’ or inherit a wrecked Jubilee. Neither can his main chaperon, Uhuru, persuade central Kenya voters to consider Matiang’i, a former Cabinet bulldozer.

But the former Interior Cabinet Secretary does not seem to get the drift. Political considerations that underlie presidential elections do not seem to be his forte. At least not so far, even with the benefit of doubt. Could it be that he is saving his energy for the homestretch, which may be a year too late?

Although Uhuru inherited Mwai Kibaki’s presidency, he did not jump into the late President’s Party of National Unity for his presidential bid. He had to build a party he could control.

Uhuru’s defunct The National Alliance and Ruto’s shelved United Republican Party formed the winning Jubilee Alliance of 2013 elections. The two parties formed the Jubilee alliance in 2017.

Nyachae, Matiang’i’s mentor, understood he needed a party he could control before he declared his presidential run in 2002. Matiang’i, then a University of Nairobi lecturer, was Nyachae’s private secretary. He was expected to understand Nyachae’s thinking and rationale at a close range.

Ford People allowed Nyachae to rally the Abagusii around a party they could identify with. He later used the party to negotiate with Kibaki’s National Rainbow Coalition regime, after the 2005 constitutional referendum falling out with Raila’s Liberal Democratic Party.

Raila and his allies formed the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), which he boarded for the 2007 presidential race. Unfettered control of ODM gave Raila leverage in power-sharing negotiations.

Ruto borrowed lessons from history when he acquired URP and the United Democratic Alliance as his platforms in the presidential power game. Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper Party and Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party also draw lessons from the opportunistic history of party formations.

When he was mentioned as a possible presidential aspirant in 2027, observers expected Matiang’i to acquire a party he could control. His potential allies advised him to form a party that could rally the Abagusii, even as it sought national acclaim, including from the rest of the former Nyanza province.

Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka was among early ushers of Matiang’i’s presidential bid. Former nominated Senator Gloria Orwoba lost her monthly one-million-shilling seat because she was seen to be leaning towards Matiang’i. She must be feeling misled.

Matiang’i’s initial enthusiasts have understandably gone mute about his presidential aspirations. Luckily he still has 2026 — a year before elections — to light the fire.

Matiang’i, one of two Cabinet secretaries who enjoyed visibility and public acclaim during the Uhuru presidency, does not seem ready yet to run his own show. He may have former President Uhuru’s support, but that’s not enough. Matiang’i won’t own Jubilee Party, and Jubilee is unlikely to appeal to voters in Matiang’i’s home constituency and its vote-rich neighbourhoods.