Why Ruto will likely lose election, then emerge winner in run-off

Allow me to plead temporary insanity and state that President William Ruto is ready to lose the 2027 election in round one. I’ll even go further to state that his recent vaunting of a first-round win by two million votes is a clever decoy. The real plan is a run-off election and subsequent assumption of office on Tuesday, November 30, 2027, 10:01 am.

My hypothesis is informed by Mugabe’s win in 2008. But before I delve further allow me to tell you a story. 

Zimbabwe’s opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai won 48 per cent of the residential vote. He beat President Mr Mugabe by 4  per cent but failed to attain the requisite 50 per cent+1 to win the presidential election. And so the election went into a run-off.

Zimbabwe’s March 2008 election happened three months right after Kenya’s bloody 2007 election where nearly 1,200 people died and over 600,000 were displaced.

Legend has it that Mugabe, who was heavily sanctioned by the West, feared his Presidency would be further illegitimised if he won it in the first round. After all, Zimbabwe’s pre-election mood was pretty much like Kenya’s. It was destined to go down the abyss.

On March 9, 2008, after casting his vote Mugabe told the press: “We are not used to boxing matches where we go from round one to round two. We just knock each other out. That’s how we have done it in the past. That’s how we will do it this time. But there’s a constitutional requirement that there may be a re-run, but it won’t be necessary.”

This was a veiled statement. He was dog-whistling to the world his intentions of engineering a re-run. In any case why would powerful Mugabe with the instruments of state mention a re-run if he didn’t imagine of participating in one?

After the run-off election, on June 29, 2008 Mugabe was sworn in as president having attained two million votes, while Tsvangirai, who boycotted the election, attained only 200,000 votes. Both however had 50:50 control of both houses of parliament. On February 11, 2009, Tsvangirai was sworn in as Prime Minister in a unity government power deal.

What’s my point here? If Kalonzo Musyoka is the main opponent against Ruto in 2027, Kalonzo will win round one. But won’t cross the 50 per cent +1 threshold (Dr Ruto’s probable plan).  

Put differently, if Ruto says he will win by two million votes in 2027, he means he will win the run-off by two million votes. And if this happens, Ruto will be sworn in as President on Tuesday November 30, 2027.

But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Should Kenya descend into chaos after Ruto’s swearing in, a new constitutional process will kick in to avert a repeat of 2007. Ruto will use the run-off election of 2027 to precipitate a new constitutional order.

At this juncture, I’ll snap out of insanity mode and ask: How sure are we that we will have an election in 2027? Has anybody considered a little general election in 2026? On September 21, 2020, Chief Justice David Maraga advised President Uhuru Kenyatta to dissolve Parliament in line with article 261 (7) of the Constitution, for its failure to enact the two-thirds gender rule.

And because Uhuru did not dissolve Parliament, we can still assume that the advisory is on Ruto’s desk. If Ruto dissolves Parliament this year, before or after judicial review of the advisory, there are two probable outcomes.

One, Ruto continues to hold office until the term of the ‘new’ Parliament expires in August 2031. This means both the National Assembly and Senate members will go home to seek fresh mandate. But the terms of governors, MCAs and the President remain intact. Effectively extending their term by five years.

And two, Parliament is dissolved and the court also determines that the President, governors and MCAs seek fresh mandate. And since Ruto has not completed a full term, he could run in a potential 2026 General Election. Should Ruto run and win in 2026, he will remain in office until August 2031. And that would still be considered a single term in office. Take it or leave it.

-Mr Maina is a political strategist. kevinmaina11@gmail.com