Why a split opposition could hand Ruto another term in 2027 election

There is one very difficult decision to be made by all genuine opposition players truly committed to regime change next year.

It won’t be easy, because it is not the way we do things in Kenya.

But the fact is that all those players on all sides need to get focused and come up with a new common vehicle they all subscribe to.

In Linda Mwananchi’s case, it won’t please my old colleague Jim Orengo that I say so, but I do say, and emphatically, please move on from ODM.

The threat of court action over Edwin Sifuna’s ‘removal’ by the Oburu Oginga ODM faction aims to achieve what, exactly? Vindication of some kind? How would that help?  

Oburu will still be stuck there, still ineffectual but moving nowhere soon and he and Sifuna can’t work together from opposite ends of the ideological spectrum. Does Linda Mwananchi want simply to keep playing Oburu’s Ruto-inspired game?

People might still be gathering around some form of ODM in numbers under Linda Mwananchi, but ODM can never be what it was.

Enthusiastic supporters are turning out to rallies because of the personalities leading Linda Mwananchi and the powerful message they are putting across – not because of ODM the party, even if measures of loyalty and Raila nostalgia naturally linger in some areas.

It is Oburu’s gross ineptitude that has all but destroyed ODM. He created a fatal division and inevitably those who align with his version of the old party will continue to support him, so that division will be perpetuated. Some former ODM supporters will be disillusioned and will not support either side.

Anyone who imagines they can continue with ODM and quickly replace countless drifting former diehards to re-establish the kind of party cohesion Raila achieved nationwide over decades is kidding themselves. Be real.

On the Oburu side, Ruto knows very well that Oburu can’t deliver what Ruto originally intended, and he knows that Oburu is fast becoming irrelevant.

But Oburu is still useful as a puppet dangling on the end of a long string, because if Linda Mwananchi also continue to play ball in a very public ongoing fight for the party, this will continue to distract, confuse, annoy and divide the electorate.

There’s only one winner in that scenario: Ruto. He would plan to keep pulling that string right up to the election if he could.

Linda Mwananchi leaders must refuse to play that game. They should have the courage to follow in Raila’s footsteps – that is, when something is no longer tenable, create something else and make it your own.

Don’t cling desperately to something just because it was once effective. Warmed-up love never regains its original fervor.

Raila knew when to move on and he did it several times over. He proved it can be potent and effective. That’s how ODM was born in the first place.

I know it is a tough ask for any dedicated Raila aficionado and staunch ODM supporter, but it is time to let ODM give birth to something better. We can only suppose that Raila, given his own history, would thoroughly approve.

And Linda Mwananchi leaders need to bite that bullet now, together with their fellow travellers in the group called the United Opposition.

The United Opposition is a positive move but it cannot alone offer the broader-based unity that is vital for electoral success.

So, with ODM basically dead in the water as a viable united party and the United Opposition as yet an uneasy alliance of only a few, it is crucial for genuine players on all sides to find an alternative way of moving forward together with workable unity. It is the only chance of victory.

Each person among them on all sides has something to offer, but no individual or grouping among them has a hope in hell without all the others. It has to be a concerted move to save Kenya.

As I say, it has not been the way we do things. But it has to be the way we do things now, if anything is to change.

Voting in Kenya has always been reactive. People are always voting against something they hate, rather than in favour of something they love and in that scenario, any option at all seems the better choice.

And when there is a plethora of confusing options, what comes naturally is to plump for the candidate who hails from near where your home is.

That is the perfect template for a split opposition and an incumbent victory. And that is what must change if a different outcome is to have any chance at all.

All sincere players need to open their minds to something else, to be realistic, to put aside their egos, to find common ground and to redirect their enthusiasm positively into presenting a new vehicle and a new outlook for the future that people can actually vote for, while simultaneously rejecting the current pernicious regime.

Opposition leaders need to give the people something credible and feasible they can actually love, something that offers real hope and inspires them anew. The country needs to find its own version of The Third Way.

It really doesn’t matter what you call it. Find a non-partisan name. The New Generation Party. Whatever. What matters is a shared strategy to which all are committed and which the electorate can have the confidence to buy into.

And all this is needed now, while there is still time – though not a lot – to build the narrative and to reassure the electorate and earn people’s trust and belief.

If opposition players continue jostling and squabbling right up to a few months before elections, when several opposing cobbled-together parties and candidates will inevitably emerge to compete with each other, and with no time left to build and present something solidly constructive, it will be 1992 all over again.

There will be enough terrible obstacles ahead, unleashed by a rogue state. Don’t add to those obstacles with one of your own, via a stubbornly fatal refusal to compromise that blinds you to the path to united victory. The ball’s in your court, guys. Don’t drop it. We’re depending on you.