Why more women in Northern Kenya might be elected in 2027

As Northern Kenya begins to prepare for the 2027 General Election, a quiet but significant political shift appears to be taking place. Across Wajir, Garissa, Mandera and other parts of the region, communities are once again holding clan consultations, negotiating political positions and identifying candidates. But this time, something feels different: Women are increasingly demanding, and in some instances receiving, consideration for political positions beyond those constitutionally reserved for them.

For a region in which political leadership has remained overwhelmingly male for more than six decades, that change deserves attention.

There is an important question about whether a system initially intended to preserve community cohesion has gradually constrained democratic competition, merit and citizens’ freedom of choice. Negotiated democracy should now evolve towards a system that places greater emphasis on competence, integrity, accountability and performance. That conversation must include women.

Negotiated democracy has particular consequences for women because, in many communities, the political positions regarded as most valuable - governor, senator, Member of Parliament and even Member of County Assembly - are negotiated primarily among male aspirants.

The Woman Representative position presents a peculiar paradox. It is the one elective position specifically created to increase women's representation, yet because every county is guaranteed that seat, clans have historically had less incentive to expend their political bargaining capital on it. The competition for the positions perceived to command greater executive authority, constituency resources or political influence has remained largely male.

Women are consequently caught in a difficult position. We encourage them to participate in politics, yet the architecture through which candidates emerge frequently decides that the MP, governor or senator position belongs to a man before the electorate even has the opportunity to choose. This is not a new problem.

In my doctoral thesis published in 2019 titled 'Intra-Cultural Communication Dynamics and the Performance of Women Politicians in Wajir County, Kenya', I examined why women in Wajir continued to struggle in competitive politics despite constitutional reforms and growing participation by women nationally. My conclusion was striking: The problem was not a shortage of capable women.

The study found that political communication itself operated within a social environment where male voices were privileged and women's voices frequently muted. Cultural expectations sometimes restricted women from speaking in the political spaces where candidates traditionally establish their legitimacy - public meetings, clan gatherings and rallies.

One of the central findings was that women's political leadership became significantly more acceptable when women were contesting positions reserved specifically for them or when there was no direct male competitor. That distinction remains extremely relevant as we approach 2027.

My research also found that the difficulty was not women's ability to communicate their ideas, but the challenge was whether society was prepared to listen to them as political leaders. Cultural expectations, clan considerations and interpretations of religious teaching combined to make competing directly against men considerably harder.

Almost a decade later, Northern Kenya has changed. Devolution has allowed communities to observe women in leadership at close range. Women Representatives, nominated MCAs, nominated MPs and women serving in senior national and county positions have demonstrated that leadership, competence and public service are not determined by gender.

Across Kenya, that argument is becoming increasingly difficult to dismiss. In June this year, former Health Cabinet Secretary Susan Nakhumicha made a similar appeal: Judge women not on gender, but on service delivery, pointing to women already demonstrating leadership in public office.

Northern Kenya now has its own evidence. Perhaps one of the strongest examples is former Ijara MP Sophia Abdi Noor. In 2017 she broke an important political barrier by winning an ordinary constituency seat rather than relying on a gender-reserved position. This month, her sub-clan endorsed her to contest the Ijara parliamentary seat again in 2027 after consultations by community elders. That endorsement is politically significant. It demonstrates that a clan can assess a woman alongside other political contenders and conclude that she is the person best positioned to carry its aspirations. The symbolism goes far beyond Ijara as can be seen with similar endorsements across Wajir and Mandera.

These developments should not be exaggerated into a declaration that the barriers have disappeared. They have not.

Recent gatherings from Garissa and Wajir shows that women are still demanding greater participation in the negotiated-democracy process itself, arguing that arrangements intended to produce consensus have too often left them merely voting for candidates chosen by men.

The solution is not necessarily to discard the positive values behind community consultation. Northern Kenya's elders have historically played indispensable roles in peacebuilding, mediation and social cohesion. But negotiated democracy must itself become more democratic.

Women must sit at the tables where political positions are allocated. Their candidature must be assessed for every position - MCA, MP, senator and governor - rather than automatically directing capable women towards the Woman Representative seat.

The fundamental question should be the same for every aspirant: Who can serve the people best?

After more than 60 years of predominantly male political leadership, our communities have enough experience to know that gender alone is no guarantee of good leadership. Neither, of course, is being a woman.

The test must be competence, integrity, experience, accessibility, vision and a demonstrated commitment to service.

What has changed is that Northern Kenya has finally accumulated enough examples of women in public leadership for communities to judge women not on assumptions about what they might do, but on evidence of what women leaders have already done.

This is why 2027 could prove different. If more communities are willing to endorse women for constituency and other traditionally male-dominated seats; if elders open political consultations to women's voices; if religious and community leaders distinguish cultural assumptions from genuine questions of leadership competence; and if women themselves organise, register, vote and support credible candidates, the coming election could represent an important turning point.

The objective should not be to replace male leadership with female leadership. It should be to remove the invisible rule that leadership is naturally male.

Northern Kenya does not suffer from an excess of capable leaders. It suffers when capable people of one gender are excluded before the competition begins.

As negotiated democracy undergoes overdue reflection, perhaps its greatest reform would be simple: allow every qualified aspirant a fair hearing, allow communities a genuine choice, and allow women to compete for every seat.

After 60 years, surely our mothers, sisters and daughters have earned the chance not merely to support leaders but to become them.

Dr Hirsi is a communication and leadership specialist