Opposition cannot delay their 2027 preparedness

As the 2027 General Election beckons, I continue to question whether the opposition understands the magnitude of the task before it. For months, I have argued that President William Ruto’s political prospects are strengthened by the opposition’s disorganisation, competing ambitions and apparent lack of direction.

Winning an election requires more than rallies, political declarations and criticism of the government. It demands unity, discipline, resources and a properly organised campaign. I would understand the opposition if its leaders argued that it was too early to name a presidential candidate. What I cannot understand is the apparent absence of a clear process towards identifying one. There is a difference between postponing a decision and failing to prepare for it. A political coalition cannot operate effectively through goodwill alone. It needs a functioning secretariat, a clear decision-making process and agreed rules for managing competing interests. If leaders fear establishing a secretariat because of possible government interference, they should find lawful and secure ways of operating rather than abandon the institution altogether. However, the emergence of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna’s political vehicle has introduced a new dimension into the opposition’s calculations. The launch of The Equitable Party (TEP) provides a platform through which Sifuna can pursue his political ambitions. In my assessment, this development could reshape the competition within the Linda Mwananchi movement and influence how opposition leaders approach the 2027 race.

I believe Sifuna’s emergence could force these leaders to reconsider their calculations. In Nairobi, particularly, political competition for parliamentary seats, the governorship and county assembly positions could be influenced by the alliances that eventually emerge between Sifuna, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and other opposition figures.

Nevertheless, it would be premature to assume that any individual or political faction will automatically control these seats. The outcome will depend on negotiations, nominations, voter preferences and the strength of the alliances formed.

I have previously warned that the opposition cannot simply borrow timelines from past elections and assume the same approach will work in 2027. Political circumstances differ from one election to another. In previous contests, established political figures often emerged as obvious choices around whom alliances could form. The current opposition has several leaders with presidential ambitions, and no universally accepted process for resolving their competing claims has yet become evident. If the opposition waits too long, disagreements over its presidential candidate could consume valuable time that should be spent building a national campaign. Leaders must therefore begin addressing the difficult questions of leadership, party cooperation and distribution of elective positions.

But choosing a presidential candidate is only the beginning. The opposition must also prepare to protect the integrity of the electoral process. Kenya’s electoral process requires parties to recruit, train and supervise competent election agents who understand their responsibilities. These agents must know how to document results, raise concerns through the appropriate procedures and ensure that electoral records are handled correctly. Parties must also establish reliable communication systems and provide the resources needed to coordinate their representatives across the country.

This preparation cannot be improvised during the final weeks of a campaign. Recruiting agents is not enough; parties must train them, monitor their performance and ensure they understand electoral law and procedures. They must also prepare to address irregularities through the legally prescribed channels and support any complaints with credible evidence.

The 2027 election will test more than political popularity. It will test the opposition’s ability to cooperate, organise and earn the confidence of Kenyan voters. Until its leaders demonstrate tangible progress on these fronts, questions about their preparedness will remain legitimate.

The writer is a political analyst