Useful cheat sheet for those who would like win in 2027 elections

The just-concluded US midterm elections offer a very useful cheat sheet for anyone serious about winning at the polls. With the 2027 General Election less than a year away, aspirants can learn a thing or two from across the Atlantic or continue running their campaigns blindly.

Number 1: Cost of living is not a peripheral campaign issue; it is THE issue. More than half of American voters identified it as the single most important factor in their voting decisions. Today, it costs so much to get by in this country; no one gets excited about payday anymore. The candidate who understands the realities facing ordinary Kenyans and offers a credible plan to bring costs down is already a foot in. Grand political talks and manifestos mean little to people struggling to meet the most basic of their needs.

Secondly, every vote counts. Literally. Nothing demonstrates this more than the nerve-wracking wait for the Mississippi senatorial race. The numbers have remained too close to call. No one will win by assuming a particular community or demographic is their stronghold. Voter mobilisation and the willingness of people to actually show up on election day are what will count. Kenyan aspirants should never confuse political popularity, impressive rally attendance or online enthusiasm with actual votes. The voter who does none of these things counts too and may well determine whether one wins or loses.

Thirdly, while money is important for campaigns, it doesn’t guarantee outcomes. Ol Kalou already taught us this, but it doesn’t hurt to emphasise it. After all, we keep hearing candidates being dismissed on account of their financial limitations. Elon Musk is said to have spent close to half a billion dollars backing Republican candidates, many of whom still lost. Money can buy visibility and build formidable campaign structures but it cannot necessarily buy public confidence enough to sway election outcomes.

Another lesson from the midterms is that two years is a long time in politics. Republicans went into the elections controlling the presidency and both chambers of Congress, only to lose control of both the House and Senate. Kenyan politicians should understand that political momentum is never permanent. Today's frontrunner can easily become tomorrow's underdog. A year ago, few would have imagined Edwin Sifuna being considered a serious contender for the top seat, but here we are. Coalitions collapse, loyalties shift and public opinion changes. Every aspirant must remain alive to this reality.

Then there is the issue of decency. Political competition should not be a licence for personal attacks, character assassination or, worse, the normalisation of vulgarity. We need to stop excusing bad behaviour in the name of politics. I suspect the controversy surrounding Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign ad featuring his opponent Amy Acton’s estranged mother, who disparaged her account of a traumatic childhood, did him more harm than good. There is a difference between being politically aggressive and being outright mean and insensitive. Disagreeing without resorting to insults and personal attacks is an outstanding leadership quality.

Also worth noting is the fallacy of endorsements. Most Trump-backed candidates failed spectacularly. Not even his repeated pleas to voters to ‘pretend he was on the ballot’ could change how voters felt and ultimately voted. Back home, we are witnessing politicians falling over themselves trying to catch the eye of party leaders and community kingpins, assuming this will translate into automatic support from voters. I think the only person who came close to wielding that kind of power was Baba, and he is no longer here. Endorsements can open doors and attract attention but ultimately, voters decide.

Finally, voters are not as predictable as politicians would like to believe. Political analysts, opinion polls, ethnic arithmetic and carefully constructed coalitions can create a false sense of certainty. In the end, elections often expose the distance between what politicians believe the electorate wants and what voters actually want. Traditional voting patterns can shift, loyalties can be tested and supposedly safe political territories can surprise everyone.

The safest position any aspirant can take is to recognise that when the moment comes, the voter has the final word.

Ms Wekesa is a development communication specialist