Questions emerge over Raila's 2027 election plans

A union between ODM leader Raila Odinga and President William Ruto, the specter of former DP Rigathi Gachagua’s influence and recent political intrigues have fueled doubts on whether Raila will be on the ballot come the 2027 general elections.

Raila, who just early last year was President Ruto’s political nemesis, has turned into a fierce defender of the Kenya Kwanza administration, urging the public and the opposition to allow Ruto serve out his full term to ensure service delivery.  

His allies have also on several occasions come to the defence of their political union, giving an indication that the ODM honcho could be backing Ruto for a second term, even as talk of a referendum, to have an expanded executive, before 2027 gains pace.

But in the same breathe, the ODM chief who came to the rescue of a beleaguered President Ruto-who was stark at the crest of a political uprising and mounting calls for his resignation last year- has time and again asserted that come the next polls, his ODM party will be fielding a candidate to challenge Ruto for the country’s top seat.

Speaking during the burial of the wife to the late Ker Joash Koyo Opien in Rarieda last week, Raila came to the defence of his political pact with Ruto, and tore into claims of working with the opposition to unseat the Head of State.

As he came clean on how he narrated how he rejected an offer from opposition leaders to join their efforts in pushing back against the Kenya Kwanza regime, Raila said that he was committed to working with President Ruto.

“I am going nowhere. I will not abandon Ruto because I know where we are heading to.We will walk together in unity to reach our destination,” he stated.

Raila added, “We have taken a very bold step by working with the Kenya Kwanza government. We do not have to stay or let our people stay in the cold all the time. Anytime we find a chance that can change the lives of our people, we take it.”

In March this year, the two protagonists signed a 10-point political pact aimed at fostering national unity and addressing long-standing governance challenges.

The agreement, which came after years of political rivalry, seeks to implement the recommendations of the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report, including the creation of the Office of the Official Opposition Leader and the reinstatement of the Prime Minister’s position.

And in what is deemed as the most apparent indication that Raila will be working with Ruto in the two years to 2027 and beyond-effectively nullifying the possibility of his name of being the ballot, his blue-eyed boy Hassan Joho this week launched Ruto’s re-election campaigns at the coast.

Joho, the Blue Economy and Mining Cabinet Secretary,  who once accused Ruto of lying to the coastal people during the 2022 campaigns, is now spearheading  his re-election bid alongside Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, marking a striking departure from their past stance. Joho is a former ODM Deputy party leader and current Blue Economy Cabinet Secretary.

He is also at the forefront urging Coastal communities to rally behind the president. In Taveta this weekend, he claimed the Coast region was not tribal and was a true definition of diversity in the country.

“Our concern here is how to tackle hunger, poverty, water, health, roads, inequality and land problems,” he noted.

He also branded Gachagua’s political wing a tribal outfit and dismissed its intentions at the Coast.

“President William Ruto and his deputy (Prof. Kithure Kindiki) have led the call for national unity, and I want to tell you today that it is what we will prioritise so that every Kenyan can feel part of this country,” Joho said, insisting the President has dismantled exclusionist politics.

Since Friday, Joho has been with  Deputy President Kithure Kindiki in traversing Jomvu and Mwatate constituencies implementing Kenya Kwanza’s economic empowerment agenda.

The experts donated by ODM to ocupy cabinet positions in Ruto's government and their juniors tasked with  have also turned into vocal  government defenders  and   aggressive mobilisers of his re-election bid. Key among them Cooperatives & MSMEs Cabinet Secretary and Wycliffe Oparanya, Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) and John Mbadi (National Treasury).

“There are those going round saying Ruto must be a one term president. If William Ruto goes, then our son (Wandayi) will go. then who is going to bring development? That’s why we are saying Dr William Ruto for two terms,” said Energy Principal Secretary Betsy Njagi, yesterday.

But on the flipside, Raila has said that ODM will field a presidential candidate in 2027 but did not give a clue as to 

Speaking during an Idd Baraza in Mombasa County in April, Raila emphasized that ODM’s cooperation with President Ruto was not a betrayal of the Kenyan people. He explained that his decision was made in the interest of peace, particularly following the youth-led anti-government protests.

“I did not enter into this arrangement with the State to betray Kenyans. Kenya is bigger and more important than any individual. Kenyans must unite and work together. But when the time comes for elections, ODM will also contest,”stated Raila.

Yesterday ODM national chairman, Gladys Wanga declared that raila was still popular and that reports that his bas has rebelled against him was untrue.

She hit out at the media for insinuating that the portrayal of Albert Ojwangg's fneral as a contestation for popularity as "unnatural detestable and a disservice to the truth arguing that the function was a national event hta united Kenyans in pain over a budding life cut short but had ended being used as a gauge for Raila's popularity by the media. 

Gitile Naituli, a professor of management and leadership at Multi-media University argues that Raila’s best bet would be going it alone in 2027 as Kenyans would vote against Ruto owing to his administration’s excesses.   

“I think anyone can win the 2027 election against Ruto even if he will be with Raila Odinga. Nobody wants the uncertainty of not knowing when you are going to be arrested for dissent against the government. Unless Ruto chooses to change this, anyone can win against him in the coming elections,” remarked Naituli during an interview with the Standard.

Political analyst Herman Manyora opined that given the current political realities, Raila would not be of much help to Ruto in 2027.

Raila will not be of much help to Ruto in 2027 the reason being he's now viewed with suspicion even those who who trust him even his fanatical followers they view Raa with suspicion.

“Raila's influence has been reduced to a Nyanza influence actually a luo Nyanza influence it's that bad. whatever  influence he will have (by 2027) will not go beyond Luo Nyanza…his magic is fast waning due to his dalliance with Ruto,” he stated.

Manyora, equally believed Raila had a better chance going it alone and on the ballot in the next polls.

“…Raila is a magician. yes he can turn things around before the next elections. For Ruto it will be an uphill task but for Raila you can't rule out anything he can still manage to turn a sizable number of votes in,” he added.