November by-elections set stage for Ruto, Gachagua, Raila showdown

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has gazetted November 27 as the date for by-elections for 23 constituencies that have been without representatives for more than one year. This move has now set stage for a political showdown between President William Ruto, former Deputy Rigathi Gachagua and ODM leader Raila Odinga.

The gazettement of the by-elections, by IEBC chairperson, Erastus Ethekon has been scheduled in two batches, with the first batch being gazetted yesterday, while the next batch has been scheduled to be gazetted tomorrow.

Yesterday’s gazette notice was for by-elections of 16 wards which include Angata Nanyokie (Samburu), Chemundu/Kapng’etuny (Nandi) Chewani (Tana River) Fafi (Garissa), Kariobangi North Ward(Nairobi) Kisa East (Kakamega), Metkei (Elgeyo Marakwet)  Mumbuni North (Machakos), Narok Town( Narok), Purko (Kajiado) Tembelio (Uasin Gishu)  Nyansiongo, Nyamaiya, Ekerenyo Wards in Nyamira County, and Lake Zone and Nanaam Wards in Turkana County.

By-elections for Kabuchai Chwele Ward in Bungoma, Baringo Senatorial seat and the six constituencies, which include Banissa, Kasipul, Magarini, Malava, Mbeere North and Ugunja Constituencies, will be gazetted on a special gazette notice on tomorrow

At the same time, the IEBC chairperson gazetted the returning and deputy returning officers for the parliamentary and ward by–elections.

Political parties intending to participate in the by-elections being urged to submit the names and specimen signatures of the authorised persons and the names of candidates by September 17.

“A public officer who intends to contest in the by-elections shall resign from public office within seven days of this notice. The Commission shall publish, in the Gazette, the names of the persons contesting in a party primary and the date of the party primary within seven days of receipt of the names of the candidates,” the gazette notice read in part.

At the same time political parties will be required to present the list of the nominated candidates who shall contest in the by-election by October 2 after resolving all intra-party disputes. Political parties intending to present candidates in the by-elections through indirect nominations shall also submit the list of persons nominated to contest in the by-elections to the Commission by the same date.

 “Candidates intending to participate in the by-elections as independent candidates shall submit their names and symbols that they intend to use during the by-elections for purposes of nomination of independent candidates to the Commission on or before September 17,” the notice read.

 The IEBC chairperson, through the gazette notice directed that disputes relating to or arising from nominations shall be determined within ten days of the lodging of the dispute with the Commission in any event not later than October 17 while the campaign period shall commence on October 8 and end on November 24.

“Political parties and candidates shall appoint and submit the names of their election agents to the Commission on or before November 11, 2025,” the notice said.

The issuance of the calendar of the by-election provides a political contest between the government and the Opposition and may also make or break the Opposition after some political parties especially Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) and former Cabinet Secretary’s Eugene Wamalwa’s Democracy for Action Party (DAP-K), have differed on who should field a candidate in Malava.

Cleophas Malala, the DCP Deputy party leader claims the battle in Malava is between Gachagua and Ruto, and hence other Opposition parties should keep off.

In a move likely to threaten the chances of Opposition to win the seat that fell vacant after the death of Malulu Injendi, the two Opposition parties have already started political cannibalisation as the DCP has continued to campaign for its candidate Edgar Busiega against DAP-K’s Seth Panyako.

“Opposition should unite behind Busiega and fight together to end President Ruto’s influence in the western region. This is not just a normal contest for the MP seat. It is the start for a national contest to end Ruto’s regime, hinged on extra-judicial killings, abductions, corruption, and a failed economy, and bring in leadership that listens to the people, or we continue with Ruto’s regime,” said Malala.

 Malava, the most populous constituency in the Western region, is considered a litmus test for President Ruto’s popularity ahead of 2027 and the opposition.

In Embu, Gachagua reached a consensus with former Cs for Public Service Justin Muturi’s Democratic Party and former Embu Senator Lenny Kivuti’s Devolution Empowerment Party that musician cum politician Newton Kariuki, popular as Karish, will fly the DCP’s flag. He will face off with UDA’s candidate who will be campaigned for by among other Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, Public Service Cs Geoffrey Ruku, who served for the parliamentary seat until he was picked for the Cs position.

The by-election will also be a litmus test for the popularity of the ODM party, as critics argue that the party’s influence has been dwindling following its dalliance with the government.

The party which has a partnership anchored on an MOU with United Democratic Alliance has announced through its Central Management Committee announced that it will field candidates in all the vacant electoral positions.

 “We have been presented with a schedule of all upcoming by-elections, and the resolution of this committee is that ODM will fully participate in all of them,” ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna said.