Why Ruto will stop at nothing to have Kalonzo stand beside him

Is Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka ready to decamp to President William Ruto's side or is he is the most likely candidate who will take on the latter as the united opposition presidential candidate in 2027?

Analysts and political pundits are seeking answers to the question after rumours emerged last week that the former vice president allegedly held a secret meeting with the President in Nairobi.

The sudden resurgence of former President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee party is also creating more confusion and suspicion within the Opposition ranks. Comments made by Jubilee vice chairman David Murathe inviting ODM leader Raila Odinga to run for president have also muddied the waters

Reports about Kalonzo meeting Ruto came after another report released a few weeks earlier claimed Opposition leaders led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua have settled on Kalonzo as their preferred candidate.

Ignited debate

Last month, Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi ignited debate when he visited Kalonzo's home area in Mwingi and urged him to join government because his input would be invaluable..

Nairobi politician Philip Kisia, who is part of the Opposition leadership dismissed claims about the Ruto-Kalonzo meeting as far-fetched and illusory, adding that the Wiper leader cannot make such a mistake.

“I can speak about it with finality because I’m part of the team. They have not met or spoken. They can talk on issues affecting the country as leaders but Kalonzo is working hard to send Ruto home,” said Kisia.

He thinks the said meeting is aimed at causing confusion for Kenya Kwanza to infiltrate the Opposition but it cannot materialise because their team is fighting to save the country from excesses and not for self-interest.

Political analyst Martin Andati also reasons that it will be very unlikely for Kalonzo to join government now when all indications point at him being the most likely Opposition candidate to take on President Ruto.

He also thinks the narrative is being pushed by the government’s intelligence agencies because the President is probably desperate to get him on his side.

“It is an open secret that Wamunyoro (Rigathi Gachagua) has settled on him and now he is the main guy in that group. There is nobody else who is going to seriously challenge him, because Matiangi’s candidature is crumbling, while Natembeya is still raw and can only be a running mate,” says Andati.

It is further argued that a united opposition will be difficult to beat if they rally around Kalonzo because they have somehow managed to bring back ethnicity-based politics which President Ruto dismantled in 2022, while young voters are also unhappy with the government.

Prof Gitile Naituli, the Chairman Centre for Transformational Leadership argues that when the Opposition decides their candidate, it will be based on tribal numbers, unlike in 2022 when there was no ethnic consideration.

“This coming presidential election will be fully tribal and that is why it is feared Kalonzo can be a threat. Suggestions that he is the Opposition candidate are intended to create despondency in the group,” says Naituli.

Naituli lists the tribal groupings that are ganging up as those from the Mt Kenya region, Western, lower Eastern and Kisii. They may also receive some additional support from the coast region which totals over 65 percent of voters.

“I know there is talk of Mt Kenya supporting either a Kamba and Luhya presidential ticket for president and deputy president respectively, or vice-versa. Government supporters and the intelligence are also doing these calculations,” says Naituli.

He, however, thinks Kalonzo may not want to meet President Ruto, because of the danger of photos being taken and distributed widely in social and mainstream media to discredit his name and brand him as a government mole in the opposition.

The analysts argue that Kalonzo has an added advantage of having a political party that has MPs and MCAs who have largely remained in the Opposition instead of joining government like their counterparts in ODM.

Opposition leaders may not want to associate with Raila or a candidate who has a working relationship with those in power.

 “People want accountability in government and an end to impunity and so the moment they realise you are warming up to Ruto, that will be your waterloo,” added Naituli.

Andati also sees the government using tricks to destabilize the Opposition between now and mid next year, because that is the most crucial period for organisation and realignment.

“They are going to use all means and ways to destabilize them including attempting to buy people like Kalonzo but it will not work because his eyes are now firmly fixed on the prize,” says Andati.

He also thinks those who don’t understand Kalonzo see him as a soft person who cannot take a firm position, but they are very wrong because he can be a very stubborn politician without raising unnecessary tantrums.

An example is when he quit Kanu to join the Rainbow coalition as former President Daniel Moi unsuccessfully tried to woo him back into the fold. He is reported to have told the President politely that he had made an irreversible decision.

Andati also argues that it could have been easier to deal with Kalonzo when Ruto was forming the government after elections, than now when it is too late. The other challenge is that no position other than the presidency suits him.

 “Even before reaching out to Raila to form the broad-based government, they attempted to get him but he refused. He has been vice president, minister, assistant minister, deputy speaker and so no position in government can be offered to Kalonzo now,” says Andati.

Some of the tactics used to fight him include repeated release of fake photos showing him meeting Ruto at State House and in Dubai when he was co-chairing the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) with Leader of Majority Kimani Ichung’wah at Bomas of Kenya last year.

“He cannot throw away this chance. It will be like George Natembeya abandoning the Opposition  when he has a chance of being Deputy President with almost the entire Luhya nation behind him. It will be foolish and an end of his political career,” added Andati.

Mixed signals from former President Uhuru and the Jubilee party is another problem for Kalonzo because it is not clear who they are supporting between him and Raila. Murathe appears to be backing the ODM leader, while Jubilee Secretary General says they will support Matiang’i.

Uhuru is now also very cosy with Ruto, which makes Andati think they are engaging in mischief with a hidden agenda. More suspicion is raised from the fact all the three party leaders are from one community whose interests in the opposition are in spearheaded by Gachagua.

Former president

“Murathe is Uhuru’s mouthpiece and he has not come out to condemn Koini’s support for Matiang’i, while the former president also appears to be supporting Ruto because of his own interests. Uhuru may have also realised that his say in the Opposition is dwindling,” says Andati.

Kisia also thinks Uhuru’s intention is to create discomfort in the opposition when Jubilee is just struggling to survive. He fails to understand how they can support Raila, when he was happy to join Ruto when Jubilee was being dismembered by the President.

“I will advise them to focus more on rebuilding the party which is now a pale shadow of itself. They also don’t have support because Wamunyoro has left with the people. Even if the say they want to back Raila, where will they get the votes?” asks Kisia.