Is Ruto-Raila pact genuine unity or convenient game to retain power?

Who is fooling whom? This is perhaps the question trusted allies of President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga are struggling with as the country heads to the 2027 elections.

The president’s critics claim he used Raila to defuse the Gen Z-led protests that shook his government in 2024. Raila critics claim the ODM leader rode on protests to sneak into government.

Ardent supporters of the arrangement, however, say that the  Ruto-Raila pact stabilised the government and the country that was under threat from ‘anarchists’.

The debate is fueled by Raila’s conflicting signals on whether he will support Ruto in 2027. He has kept his cards close to his chest even as his trusted allies continue to issue conflicting statements.

Meanwhile, Raila’s influence within the Kenya Kwanza administration has increased. Ruto has offered ODM party leaders key seats in the broad-based government.

John Mbadi became the Cabinet Secretary for National Treasury, Opiyo Wandayi took charge of the Energy docket, former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya was appointed to head the Ministry of Cooperatives and SMMEs, while ex-Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho is the CS for Mining, Blue Economy and Maritime Affairs.

Initially, Raila touted that the four as “experts” would help Ruto’s administration achieve its objectives.

The broad-based arrangement has seen President frequently visit the Nyanza, a region that he previously considered to be hostile. In the recent months, he has made several forays in Raila’s backyard.

“It is clear that the President intends to co-opt opposition members rather than genuinely foster unity. This move is geared towards his own political survival,” says governance expert Joseph Omondi.

Omondi, the Executive Director at the Midrift Hurunet—a non-state actor advocating for human rights, good governance, peace, and security— says the initial formation of a “broad-base” Cabinet was met with expectations of younger professionals, but the inclusion of figures from the old administration and legacy politicians had led to disappointment.

“Although the broad-based government has agreed to compensate victims of police brutality, many Kenyans remain sceptical about its political agenda,” he observes.

President Ruto has said the appointment of opposition members was meant to create an inclusive government.

“Kenyans stand to gain more from the broad-based government as opposed to a country divided along ethnic lines,” he was quoted as saying by newspaper.

“No community, county, or region will be sidelined by the Broad-Based Government,” he said when he addressed residents of Nanyuki town two months ago.

He added: “We are going to walk together to make our country more inclusive, prosperous, and better for all of us.”

Political analyst Prof. Gitile Naituli views this as a strategic move to win over the opposition and its allies in preparation for the 2027 presidential election after he lost most of his 2022 supporters.

“The June 2024 crisis provided Ruto with a political lifeline. He has turned to Raila to stabilise his government and position himself for re-election in 2027. But what does the opposition stand to gain by aligning with Ruto?” asks Naituli, a professor of management and leadership.

ODM rebels

Raila has defended the President’s actions, stating that Ruto sought his help to avoid anarchy.

His alignment with Ruto received mixed reactions. Some embraced the move, while others argue it is a selfish move to get a stake in the government and remain politically relevant at the expense of Kenyans.

The partnership has also caused cracks in ODM, where a group of youthful politicians are opposed to the alliance and are threatening to pull in a different direction.

They include ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino.

However, pundits argue the two were walking a tightrope, as the Ruto-Raila deal may not resonate well with large sections of Nairobi, which is highly cosmopolitan.

Observers argue that the economic challenges and the crisises in the health and education sectors, which affect a large section of the Kenyans, remain unaddressed.

Former Molo MP Njenga Mungai says although Ruto had managed to contain the wave of anger against his administration through his partnership with Raila, there is still a lot that remains to be done.

“However, political stability is the key factor in any country, as other socio-economic development agenda are anchored on that stability,” Mungai adds.

The former MP argues that economic development takes time to achieve, and any government requires the goodwill of the people to deliver on the economic agenda.

“We have seen inflation going down, and prices of essential commodities stabilising. Bank interest rates have been on a downward trend, with the foreign deposit held at the Central Bank being on an upward trend. All these are positive indicators,” Mungai says.

In his observation, Mungai says that across the country, there were physical development programmes being undertaken by the government.

“However, the prices of essential commodities are still high, while the health and education sectors are in disarray. These are key issues facing the ordinary people in the grassroots, but still they cannot be addressed in a situation of political turmoil,” he says.

Mungai, who is the chairman of the Jubilee Party’s Council of Elders, observes that the opposition is unable to effectively oversee the government through Parliament and also provide an alternative agenda.

“Our political arena is now dominated by ethnic-based politics and tribal diatribe that overshadow any genuine efforts being made to revive the country’s economy.”

He says the fight against corruption remains to be won and commended the government for delisting over 1,000 health facilities from the Social Health Authority (SHA) platform.

He says the country cannot deliver efficient and quality health care unless it addresses the issue of corruption and fraudulent claims made by health facilities.

A political analyst, Andrew Nyabuto, says the broad-based government was necessary following the crisis that befell the Ruto administration.

He argues the fragile political ecosystem requires all political players to work together to minimise ethnic rivalries and demonstrations that undermine progress.

He says by appointing Raila’s allies into the government, Ruto had managed to get the support of regions that were previously hostile to it, hence receiving the political goodwill it needed to address the challenges facing the country.

“We have seen the government responding to concerns of the people over university funding models, SHA management, and the affordable housing issues,” says Nyabuto.

He notes that in Mbadi’s first budget, he avoided raising taxes.

“The Ruto administration appears to have got a new lease of life after his partnership with Raila, who still has support in Nyanza, Western Kenya, the Coast region and Maasai land. This has greatly helped the President,” Nyabuto says.

Former Ndaragwa MP Mwangi Gichuki says apart from stabilising politics, the partnership is yet to deliver on the economic front.

New opposition

He observes that the government had not demonstrated its commitment to fighting corruption and restoring good governance.

The former MP adds that there was still too much wastage in the government, which made it difficult for it to provide services.

Following the alignment, the youth have declared themselves the new opposition. They are using social media to expose the ills in government and mobilise the masses against oppression, corruption and injustice.

Shiko Kihika, the founder of Tribeless Youth, is one of the young people who consider opposition politicians as opportunists riding on the wave of the youth’s anti-government protest.

“We, young people, just want good governance led by competent people, national resources well managed and accounted for, enabling us to sustain ourselves in our beloved country,” says Kihika.

“For now, all the country can do is wait and see how the broad-based government works. If the Cabinet performs, the better. It means a win for the country,” she says.

Critics argue that reports of massive financial losses due to corruption scandals within the broad-based government, such as those related to the Social Health Authority, have stained the government.