Ruto at three: From fiery pledges to blunders and lost confidence

Looking back at the last three years, President William Ruto perhaps wishes that things had not changed as radically as they have for him.

Dr Ruto has picked up heavy loads since he upset the political establishment on August 9, 2022, which now weigh his presidency down.

There is little progress in achieving the utopia he promised during the campaigns, and many Kenyans feel cheated.

The goodwill with which Ruto rose to the presidency has dwindled among a significant portion of the half of the country that elected him, shifting to the half that wanted nothing to do with him three years ago.

Along the way, Ruto, widely acclaimed as an astute politician, has made costly blunders.

The two most fatal mistakes have been impeaching former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and playing deaf to the concerns of Kenya’s youth, whose protests over the last two years have shaken the Kenya Kwanza administration to its very core.

And now he faces an uncertain political future, three years after he seemed invincible. Elected into office with the slimmest of margins, he consolidated power by aggressively courting the opposition.

That bit about him, calling upon the opposition to cement his hold on power, has remained unchanged.

However, unlike the man who was on top of the world three years ago, there is a sense of vulnerability about the Head of State.

To many observers, Gachagua’s description of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga as Ruto’s political life support machine is no exaggeration.

“Ruto is not in control,” said Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo, a vocal critic of the president’s. “The government is hanging on to Raila’s lips. Raila holds the centre.”

Raila partnered with Ruto in July 2024 in their ‘broad-based’ arrangement, which saw five allies of the opposition veteran appointed into the Cabinet.

If Raila were to desert Ruto, so it has been argued, the president would be too frail to secure re-election in 2027.

On September 7, 2022, as he spoke to his predecessor Uhuru Kenyatta about the transition, there was only one direction Kenya’s president-elect would go. Up. It mattered little that Uhuru had sulked at the court’s verdict and that they had not spoken in months.

Two days earlier, the Supreme Court had affirmed Ruto‘s victory in the bitterly contested presidential election, which saw the then deputy president defeat Raila by slightly over 200,000 votes.

At the sounding of the verdict, Ruto, awaiting his inauguration days later, fell to his knees, and a prayer of gratitude was said.

A crowd of allies who had joined him at the deputy president’s residence in Karen to follow the proceedings would later sing the gospel song Alpha and Omega.

Ruto’s rise had the opposite effect on Raila’s political trajectory. Aged 77, the former premier had spent his “last bullet.”

Although Ruto would strike a conciliatory tone, stating he planned to call Raila, he was careful to restate that he opposed the idea of a handshake that would blur the lines between the government and opposition.

Unknown to him then, Ruto would swallow his words nearly two years later in an elite bargain that worked to tame a youth-led revolt that threatened his very hold of power.

His promise to the boda boda riders and mama mboga, whom Ruto credited as the drivers of his campaign, was that the new government would be theirs.

And freedom would come to allies who had faced persecution for “choosing me as a friend.” Kenya would be better, he asserted, more democratic and rational.

 “We will work hard, and we will not let you down,” said the then president-elect.

The work had already begun for the Head of State in waiting. Ruto had been busy since he was announced the victor of the grueling August 9 contest.

In the intervening days, he had instigated a series of defections from Raila’s Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya coalition, now all but defunct.

Ruto also met several delegations, including leaders elected within his party, as he geared up to hit the ground running.

In one of those meetings, he had doubled down on his campaign promise that administration officers and public servants “would not be available to carry out political work for any political party.”

Ruto went on about ensuring that the police service would not be “weaponised” to fight political wars and making his government transparent and accountable.

He had a lot on his mind. There was so much he wanted to do. And fast. His immediate goals included appointing some six judges Uhuru had refused to swear into office, and handing the police service financial autonomy.

Other urgent matters included the sacking of then-Inspector General of Police Hillary Mutyambai and former Director of Criminal Investigations George Kinoti, which Ruto did swiftly.

The president did not stop there, initiating a process to reform the police service. However, his administration betrayed such efforts with its growing tolerance of dissent.

And Ruto would commit the same crimes he said had ended with Uhuru’s presidency – weaponising the criminal justice system.

Since last year, the Kenya Kwanza administration has been mostly infamous for state-sanctioned abductions and extra-judicial killings targeting youthful protesters.

Since 2023, when Raila led anti-government demonstrations, the state has sustained a heavy-handed response to peaceful protests.

“Ruto scores a zero in terms of respecting human rights,” Maazo, who also rated the president’s overall performance as 30 per cent. “Now he claims he wants to compensate victims of brutality without granting them justice. We need to know who killed our children, like Rex Masai, and the basis for the compensation for his death.”

There was the important task of making his Gachagua feel appreciated in his government. He had sworn time without number that no other deputy would experience the degrading treatment he faced under Uhuru, where subordinates openly chastised him. But he showed efficiency in having Gachagua impeached when they fell out irredeemably.

“Throwing out Gachagua was a mistake,” said Macharia Munene, a professor of history and international relations. “He tried to make it seem as though MPs had impeached his former deputy, but the truth has come out that Ruto pushed it.”

Prof Munene argued that it was possible that Ruto may have wanted Gachagua out from the start, “especially because Gachagua had made blunders from day one.”

“Ruto did not want a strong man like himself.”

More radical actions followed in Ruto’s push to transform different sectors just as he had promised during the campaigns.

A fuel subsidy that Ruto said had contributed to ensnaring Kenya in debt fell. The Hustler Fund, a state-run loan facility, was rapidly implemented, as was the fertiliser subsidy programme that Ruto sold to farmers.

Ruto would raid the pockets of Kenyans in formal employment for a highly unpopular housing tax and higher premiums for a new health insurance scheme that many observers fault as messed up.

The Commander-in-Chief had not said it would be harder when he delivered his “Plan” months earlier.

If anything, he had promised an easier ride, a shift from the mess that he said had characterised Uhuru’s presidency.

“The objectives were good,” said Timothy Njagi, an economist. “It is the pursuit of these objectives that was flawed.”

Dr Njagi, who argued that Ruto had faltered on the economy, pointed out that Ruto’s policies had not resulted in the intended objectives.

He highlighted different sectors, such as education, where schools still struggle with capitation, with a new higher education funding model pushing college education beyond the reach of many underprivileged Kenyans.

“Our vision is to industrialise and we cannot do that without a competent human capital,” the economist added, also pointing out the messes in the Social Health Authority, weaknesses in the affordable housing scheme to create employment and industry closures over Kenya Kwanza’s punitive tax policies.

“The government needs to be more open to feedback. If something is not working, you try something new,” said Dr Njagi.

Political risk analyst Dismas Mokua argued that Ruto's radical economic policies were forced on him by the "crisis he flew into upon taking office."

"The economy was facing turbulence, and he had to hit the ground running. He took advantage of the crisis to engage in policy alignment and correction. These unpopular but rational policy interventions have caused Kenyans economic pain in the short term, but the probability of bearing dividends before elections is very high," he said.

Prof Munene, who thinks Ruto has performed poorly politically, argued that the Head of State has often felt as though he was doing the bidding for foreign forces, under whose influence he allegedly is.

“But he still has two years to shape up. He must restore confidence in institutions and in important sectors like Health and Education. To his credit, he established the compensation committee, which is an admission that the state conducted abductions, and appointed critics. That was a very good beginning.”