Experts: Why Matiang'i is seen as a political threat
Politics
By
Esther Nyambura
| Sep 17, 2025
Former Interior and Education Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i is once again stirring the political waters.
With his presidential bid now underway, experts argue that he poses the greatest threat to President William Ruto, surpassing any other party or politician currently eyeing the seat.
Speaking on Spice FM, Interparties Youth Forum convener Kidi Mwanga noted: “There has been a perception and a feeling that he has been an extension of certain figures; recently an extension of former President Kenyatta. In the event that he’d put his foot down, he would get a huge support base even from Central Kenya, and that would disrupt the table those in broad-based have set.”
Echoing similar remarks, governance expert Professor Gitile Naituli observed that the 2027 elections are no longer about manifestos or promises.
“Currently, Kenyans are not interested in what one will do, but in who will remove Ruto from power,” he said.
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According to Naituli, numbers will be critical. He pointed out that Kisii alone accounts for about a million people, with at least 700,000 likely to vote. Traditionally, this has been Raila Odinga’s stronghold. IEBC records show that in 2017, Nyanza had 1,939,730 registered voters, with Kisii County topping the list at 412,945. Kisumu followed at 385,820, and Homa Bay at 325,826.
But Naituli now suggests that the dynamic could change.
“The people might rally behind their own, as well as those who feel the broad-based government is not their cup of tea,” he said.
This could mean that the near 100 per cent support Odinga previously enjoyed in Nyanza might split, potentially in half or even more, with Matiang’i taking the lion’s share.
These observations come at a time when efforts to ‘silence’ Matiang’i appear to be intensifying.
Recently, professionals from the Gusii region were convened at a Nairobi hotel to rally the community behind President Ruto and frustrate Matiang’i’s 2027 ambitions. The government-allied politicians and senior officials, led by Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, have also been touring Nyanza to counter the political threat posed by the former CS.
According to Naituli: “They are noticing Matiang’i is making inroads in Kisii, and he might split the region if Raila decides to stick with Ruto. Raila’s value to William Ruto lies in delivering Nyanza, since he has already lost the Kamba and Luhya bases, where Natembeya has been effective. If he can’t secure the Nyanza bloc, his political worth is near zero, and that’s why Matiang’i is seen as an obstacle.”
Mwanga agreed, adding, “It is natural that his competition will do anything to make sure he does not do anything that ruins the party for them. He is a serious presidential contender. If the opposition rallies around him, he will challenge the broad-based.”
According to the two, 2027 will not just be another election; it will be a battle where Matiang’i’s entry could rewrite the script of Kenyan politics, if he aligns accordingly.