Opposition goes mute as Ruto team beats own drum

Kenya’s next General Election is not due for another two years, but the air is noisy with political slogans.

In recent days, the loudest chant has been "Tutam" a corruption of “two-term”, chanted by allies of President William Ruto, which implies that the Head of State will be re-elected to office.

Occasionally, "Wantam", a slogan coined by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua to mean that Dr Ruto would only serve a single term, dominates.

That has hardly been the case in the last few days, courtesy of Ruto’s aggressive campaigning, disguised as development tours.

As he sells his candidature, the opposition mostly keeps indoors, fuelling the perception that they are possibly unserious about unseating Ruto. On social media, they have attracted criticism for being “boardroom” politicians who operate primarily from plush hotels, issuing press statements.

The real work, critics have argue, is out there in the field, where Ruto has camped since he was sworn in as the fifth president. Observers have warned that this reality is not the ideal, as Ruto’s early campaigns have kept the country in a constant electioneering mood.

Whatever the ideal situation, it is clear the President will not stop campaigning, and that the opposition could lose out if they let Ruto have a free run.

“How will they sell their policies without moving around?” says Dr Timothy Onduru, who teaches History at the Moi University.

At the Coast, where the President has camped since Tuesday, he is holding rallies like those witnessed on the campaign’s homestretch. Deputy President Kithure Kindiki has led the public in chanting “Tutam”, the response to his “Harambee” prompt.

Ruto is digging in at the "United Opposition" led by Gachagua and former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, terming them “confused” and “lacking brains.”

In Kenya’s murky political waters, such statements would have earned an equally forceful response. “We are unbothered by what the President does,” says Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi, an ally of Kalonzo. “We are running at our pace.”

Indeed, the opposition has looked unfazed, and sometimes powerless before Ruto. Much of this, as Onduru argues, owes to the possibility that the opposition would struggle to match the President’s financial muscle “to move around the country”.

“The President has resources and the State power. No one can compete with that,” he says.

Gitile Naituli, a professor of leadership and management affiliated with the United Opposition, concurs.

“Ruto is using public money. The opposition’s lack of campaigns could be because they are strapped for resources, but not out of a lack of seriousness about removing Ruto from office,” he argues.

“But the opposition could be timing their campaigns to start next year.”

Kalonzo has perennially appeared like he is awaiting a trigger. Within his circles lie the hopes that former Prime Minister Raila Odinga will desert the Head of State.

“What would happen if Raila were to declare ‘Ruto must go?’ He would be a hero,” says Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo, highlighting the underlying desire to have Raila back in the opposition fold.

“What stops Raila from abandoning Ruto in the last minute and teaming up with Kalonzo? He abandoned Kanu after it made him its secretary general.”

Constantly on the move, only Gachagua seems like a counterweight to his former boss. Over the weekend, He declared his presidential bid. However, his eligibility is debatable as he was impeached in October. Impeached officials are barred from seeking elective office.

If cleared, he faces equally ambitious politicians within the budding opposition coalition. Kalonzo, who has supported Raila in the last three General Elections, wants to run for office, as does Martha Karua, the leader of the People’s Liberation Party.

Before his announcement, Gachagua got the first signal that he would not throw his weight around in the opposition when he was forced to withdraw his Democracy for the Citizens Party’s candidate in the Mbeere North parliamentary by-election planned for November.

The coalition, held together by their desire to thwart Ruto’s re-election, say they plan to announce a single presidential candidate next year.

Maanzo defends his coalition’s slow tempo as “strategic”, saying that ousting Ruto requires proper planning. Mwangangi also offers a similar justification, but argues that the Head of State ought not to be campaigning early.

Onduru argues that while the opposition still had enough time to strategise for the next election, they were sending mixed signals and risk coming out as disorganised.