How Ruto is burning midnight oil to win over Raila supporters

The passing on of ODM leader Raila Odinga last week has complicated President William Ruto’s political plans as it has forced him to re-evaluate his game plan ahead of the 2027 General Election. This is after plans of a coalition with ODM have been torpedoed.

For his survival, the President is reportedly weighing the option of using his influence and his memorandum of understanding with the late Raila’s party to convince the ODM leaders to formalise their working arrangement. Some of the options on the table include collapsing the ruling party to officially join the UDA party. Alternatively, there is the option of collapsing both the UDA and ODM parties to form a new party where he will be the party leader and the flagbearer for the elections.

Another option, The Standard has learnt, is to use his influence to elbow out rebels within ODM, replacing them with sympathisers as the officials who will be his point men, especially in Luo Nyanza and to have other regional parties in Raila’s strongholds outside Nyanza, such as Coast, Nyanza and Maa, install senior elected leaders as party leaders.

This, according to sources, will make his entry to ODM strongholds easier and remove barriers that prevented him from getting votes during the 2022 General Election.

“In these regions, Ruto only required Raila’s word to inherit his support base, but after his death, he needs local leaders elected from ODM who will act as his entry point. These leaders will either be the party leaders of new political formations as they will be given top party officials in a party that will be formed if other of the other strategies work,” a source privy to the arrangements said.

But a faction of ODM leaders, opposed to the Broad-Based government, claim they are aware of the plot and are warning Ruto ‘not to try it’ as he will regret the political miscalculation.

Saboti MP Caleb Amisi said they were aware of a plot to divide the party, which he said will start by trying to oust a section of the party officials opposed to the broad-based arrangement before graduating to efforts to dissolve it.

“We can’t allow him to dictate the future of our party. He is an outsider and being a founder member doesn’t mean that he deserves anything, including being supported for his re-election. It is a war he better not risk as we will fight back,” Amisi said.

It became evident that there were efforts to remove ODM dissidents during Raila’s burial when Mining and Blue Economy Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho, who was one of the ODM’s Deputy Party leaders, said they would remove any leader within ODM who tried to divide the party, even as he maintained that Raila had left the party working with Ruto.

“The party is not going anywhere. The party is not going to scatter away, the party won’t be broken, the values and the principles of the party have been imprinted in my heart by the party leader. He who tries to divide our party, or to destroy our party, we shall remove you from the party. The party will be here to stay,” Joho said in a veiled warning against the critics of the broad-based government.

During the burial ceremony, Ruto also vowed to protect ODM from being weakened or misused saying he will not allow anyone to go and gamble with it in the opposition, a remark that was interpreted to mean that he would not allow a section of the ODM officials to forge an alliance with the Opposition parties.

“What I will not allow, out of my respect for Raila Odinga, and I will do my best, may God help me, is to let those who want to take ODM to go and gamble with it in the opposition to succeed. I want to tell you; we will respect ODM. We will support you to hold ODM together. ODM must be strong as we go to 2027 because that is the only way we are going to have a strong government,” Ruto said during Raila’s funeral.

Ruto’s allies have hinted at a merger between the ODM and UDA even as some called for the expulsion of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna who serves as the ODM’s Secretary General.

Nandi Governor Stephen Sang urged the ODM officials to guard their party so that in future, they may merge it with UDA to form a United Orange Democratic Party whose party leader will be Ruto.

“I wish to inform you that the Nyanza people like us a lot, and they like Ruto; they are right in the middle of the two-term movement. Nyanza and Rift Valley will re-elect Ruto for the second time. ODM has a founder member of the party in the name of Ruto who is in the State House. They should guard the ODM as we guard our UDA so that in the near future we may form the United Orange Democratic Party and our party leader will be President Ruto. The crooks behind the one-term movement will be shocked as we shall defeat them early in the morning,” the governor said.

Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei called on the ODM to expel Sifuna as secretary general, saying it seemed only he had no instruction from Raila regarding ODM supporting the broad-based government. 

“The entire ODM leadership, except Sifuna, have confirmed that Baba Raila Odinga instructed them to stay and work with President Ruto's administration under a broad-based government. The biggest threat to the growth of ODM to be in government or forming government in the future, is Sifuna and company. By the end of this year, he must be removed from ODM as the Secretary General. He is the mole of the united opposition in ODM,” the senator said. 

Joshua Nyamori, a political analyst who supports the Kenya Kwanza administration, noted that Raila did not leave his supporters and the party outside government, adding that the team appointed by the two leaders to oversee the implementation of the 10-point agenda was set to crystallise a political formation.

“ODM has its support base in Nyanza, in other regions, like in Coast, Joho will mobilise the electorate behind Ruto, whether in a political party or not. Ruto is a leader with a personal ability and political acumen that can’t be underrated,” he said.

However, other leaders from the Opposition and within ODM have warned the President of trying to ‘kill’ the party, as that was tantamount to killing what Raila stood for over the years.

 “Let us not kill political parties. Political parties are the foundation of democracy. Any arrangements we enter into don’t kill political parties. In 1963, political parties were killed and it took us 20 years to fight to revive political parties,” Siaya Governor James Orengo said.

On her part, People’s Liberation Party (PLP) leader Martha Karua said the move to bring political parties under one roof was unconstitutional as it eroded multipartism and dishonoured Raila’s fight for democracy. 

“The greatest honour to Raila is to follow his ideals. To uphold multipartism and also uphold the rights of the people, the regime must stop those violations,” Karua added.