ODM 'coattail leaders' brace for uncertain 2027 after Raila's death

Several elected and nominated leaders in Nyanza and Western who have hung on the late ODM leader Raila Odinga’s political coattails to capture seats may have to go back to the drawing board as residents anticipate a dynamic shift in the region’s politics.

They are the group that won seats with minimal sweat after getting endorsements from Raila. In Nyanza, critics have always mocked them as 'osiem gi luth', which loosely infer to handpicked.

For some, so easy has been their quest to win seats with Raila’s backing and influence that they never printed campaign posters or campaigned for their seats after being handed direct tickets.

They are the group that benefited massively from the successive push by the ODM leadership for a six-piece voting pattern in favor of party candidates for all the seats, under the rallying call of building Raila’s troops at the national level and in counties.

Others walked a stress-free journey to elective seats after the late ODM leader and his closest allies brokered deals through negotiated democracy that saw some leaders opt out of races in favor of the selected candidates.

In the 2022 General Elections, for instance, nearly all close allies of the late ODM leader and party stalwarts were handed direct tickets to compete for seats. This was part of an effort implemented by the ODM party to avert fallouts from the costly party primaries. Consequently,  a few disgruntled competitors who had hoped to challenge for the party’s nomination bolted out to contest as independent candidates, while others backed out of races.

But with ODM’s influence in the region, the defectors did not stand a chance as the party’s powerful campaign machinery, strengthened by a six-piece voting pattern in favor of party candidates, swept seats in the region with ease.

Among the leaders who were handed direct party tickets are Governors Anyang’ Nyong’o (Kisumu), James Orengo (Siaya), Fernandes Barasa (Kakamega), Simba Arati (Kisii), Ochillo Ayacko (Migori), and Homa Bay’s Gladys Wanga.

MPs Jared Okello (Nyando), James Nyikal (Seme), Rozaah Buyu (Kisumu West), Opondo Kaluma (Homabay town), Millie Odhiambo (Suba North), Lilian Gogo (Rangwe), Eve Obara (Kabondo Kasipul), the late Ong’ondo Were (Kasipul), Senator Eddie Oketch (Migori), and Moses Kajwang (Homa Bay) were also beneficiaries of direct tickets, among others.

Save for Nyong’o, who is completing his second term, a herculean test awaits the rest of the leaders who will be seeking reelection as uncertainties continue to bog the Orange party.

While residents believe some of them are perfoming well in their roles, others are political parasites whose only claim to glory was mentioning Raila's name in public spaces.

Party delegates believe that how the Oburu Oginga-led party leadership will handle the sibling rivalries that had started glaring long before Raila even died, will be the determinant of the fate of a number of leaders.

Observers believe the leaders will now have to go an extra mile to convince voters to back them in 2027, and only performers will stand a chance of reelection. 

‎"They are naked, some without any anchor, others as President William Ruto’s proteges. Perennial sycophants and power brokers are now challenged to be their own men and women. There will be no Capitol Hill to hover around, no photo opportunities to ingratiate themselves with, and no coattails to hang on," Strategic Communications Consultant Barack Muluka says.

‎He says the suddenness of the death of a political powerhouse like Raila will also spell the death of careers and lifelines.

Political analyst Mark Bichachi opines that there are many former Raila coat tail hangers who are in serious trouble.

‎He thinks that at the same time, there are people who were outside Raila’s coat who can smell political blood.

‎"Therefore, the competition will heat up both by individuals within ODM and by political parties entering former ODM zones," Mr. Bichachi says.

‎He opines that brand ODM will definitely still have a value, but how big that value will be will depend on the succession, party alliances, and activities.

For a start, the party leaders are clinging onto hope that the ODM party will remain strong and be united behind the new party leader, Oburu Oginga, to steer the party and maintain its dominance.

On Friday, the leaders convened at Oburu’s home in Bondo and endorsed him as their leader and claimed they would all rally behind him to take the region forward and unite the region.

Early this week, the party's top brass also met to chat a way on how to strengthen the party. 

They have also proposed a series of grassroots activities across the region in honor of the late Raila as part of the strategy to strengthen the party’s grassroots support.

Interviews with a number of party delegates, however, established that it will be a toll order for leaders to bag direct tickets in the future, but admitted that consultations will reign supreme.

“We have witnessed sibling rivalries in the past and that is why Raila embraced dialogue and negotiated democracy to avert a potential crisis. How Oburu and the party leadership will handle competing interests will be crucial, but the era of joyriders is over,” said an ODM MP.

Migori Senator Eddy Oketch, a beneficiary of the party’s direct ticket in 2022, says Raila was a system and an institution. He, however, believes that they will not be affected much, adding that as long as any leader serves the people and is aligned to the institutions that Raila left, none will live on the edge.

‎"Baba is gone, but the system and the institution is still there," Mr. Oketch opines.

‎Uriri MP Mark Nyamita says the only leaders on the edge are those who have not prioritized the interests of their people.

‎"Those that have nothing to show for their time in the office despite having access to public resources," Mr. Nyamita states.

Nyatike MP Tom Odege opines that Nyanza will remain an ODM zone.

‎"Those who are sending fears are people who have never supported the party, and we don’t expect them to support," Mr. Odege says.

During the unveiling of Oburu on Friday at his home, his sister Ruth Odinga cautioned ODM leaders not to expect endorsements but instead to work for the people.

She challenged party members to elect only popular candidates from the grassroots level to help strengthen the party.

Within ODM, although some of the beneficiaries have performed in their jurisdiction, others have been struggling to implement development for the people.

Residents believe others are still active in politics because of the ODM wave that has enabled them to win seats in successive polls, because voters were sympathising with Raila.

"The campaign in Nyanza has always been based on the premise of helping Raila at the national stage. That doctrine cannot apply now, and everyone must tell voters what they have done. It will not be the same again," said Maurice Ouma, a voter in Migori.