ODM demand for DP position threatens Kindiki's prospects

As the country heads towards the next General Election and political formations strategise to capture power, the Orange Democratic Movement’s (ODM) insistence on securing the running mate position has unsettled the balance of power within the ruling coalition.

The declaration by acting party leader Oburu Oginga has placed Deputy President Prof Kithure Kindiki in a tight spot, casting uncertainty over his future in President Ruto’s government. 

Kindiki’s political prospects now appear uncertain, with his allies in the Mount Kenya East region warning they could withdraw their support for the president if he replaces their own.

In an interview with NTV last week, Oginga stated the party “would not accept a position lower than that of a Deputy President” should it enter into any pre-election agreement with Ruto.

“If we have to go for a lower position, it must not be lower than number two (Deputy President) in any formation. That is my take. We should not take less than that,” he said. He added the party was focused on strengthening itself before heading to the bargaining table for any top position, noting that talks held before consolidating internal support would be futile.

Oburu’s remarks have rattled Kindiki’s allies from Mt Kenya East, who have threatened to abandon President Ruto’s camp should he enter into a pre-coalition agreement with ODM that guarantees the running mate position at Kindiki’s expense.

The MPs, Mugambi Rindikiri (Buuri), Mpuru Aburi (Tigania East), George Mutunga (Tigania West), Dan Kiili (Igembe Central), Julius Taitumu (Igembe North), Shadrack Mwiti (South Imenti), nominated MP Dorothy Muthoni and Meru Woman Rep Karambu Kailemia, dismissed ODM’s demands, insisting that the Deputy President’s seat belongs to their region.

“We want to tell our President that Mt Kenya East is fully behind him, but our support stands because of Kindiki. For many years, our region has supported others for the top seat. Now that we finally have one of our own, why should anyone start feeling greedy? The ODM brigade should forget about this seat because it is not vacant,” Rindikiri said. The legislators warned that removing Kindiki would trigger political backlash and weaken Ruto’s support base in Mt Kenya East.  

“We cannot allow anyone to replace Kindiki. The President should not listen to empty noise driven by greed for power. We have enough votes to bargain with any political formation and those eyeing the seat should know Mt Kenya East has the numbers and will defend its position,” Mutunga said.

They maintained that their support for President Ruto’s second-term bid is anchored on mutual respect, with Kindiki remaining the second in command.

The scramble for Ruto’s running mate comes five months after Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi cautioned the Mt Kenya region against shifting its political allegiance away from the President. According to Mudavadi, such a move could cost the region key government opportunities and development benefits, warning that it also risked losing the Deputy President’s position.

“You are lucky to be working with a President who has a lot of faith in the people of this region. If you let it slip, we want it, and we will take it. A bird in hand is better than ten in the bush. Other Kenyans wish they had a fraction of what you have. Hold on to what you have, take it seriously,” he said while in Nyeri.

Analysts observe that Kindiki faces a delicate balancing act. While he can either retain his position or run for the presidency, many believe he is not yet politically ripe for the top seat. His immediate challenge, they note, lies in uniting not only Mt Kenya East but the entire Mt Kenya region firmly behind Ruto to secure his place in 2027.

According to Prof John Mwaruvie, an Associate Professor of History at Karatina University, President Ruto’s ambition to inherit the late Raila Odinga’s voting bloc, coupled with Kindiki’s failure to establish himself as the political spokesperson for his region, could push Ruto to drop him in favour of ODM. This, he said, would help Ruto secure the numbers traditionally enjoyed by the Opposition.

“The demand to have the Deputy President post is a bargaining chip by ODM, while Ruto may be enticed because he is not guaranteed any political support from the larger Mt Kenya region where Kindiki hails. Giving the DP slot to ODM may guarantee him votes from Nyanza, Western, Coast and Nairobi,” argued Prof Mwaruvie.

He added that the upcoming Mbeere North by-election, slated for November 27, will be a litmus test for Kindiki’s political strength in the region. A victory, he said, would signal that Kindiki is beginning to consolidate his base in Mt Kenya, while a loss would likely prompt Ruto to rethink his re-election strategy.

Prof Gitile Naituli echoed similar sentiments, noting that President Ruto cannot take Mt Kenya votes for granted. He described Ruto as a “political animal” keen on crafting a strategy to compensate for any potential loss of support from the region in 2027. “Ruto is busy trying to inherit Raila’s support base and he will do all he can to win over that constituency, especially in Luo Nyanza, even if it means offering them the running mate position,” Naituli observed.

Political analyst Charles Munyui observed that Ruto’s 2027 re-election strategy will differ significantly from the one he used in 2022, a shift that may compel him to seek strong regional gatekeepers to help him penetrate key voting blocs.