2027 litmus test: Ruto, Gachagua showdown looms ahead of mini polls

The upcoming by-elections will provide a popularity contest between President William Ruto and his former Deputy Rigathi Gachagua as they shift the political landscape ahead of the 2027 General Election.

While Gachagua has been claiming to have taken control of the Mt Kenya region that overwhelmingly voted for Ruto — after he garnered 2.9 million votes in the 2022 General Election — following his impeachment, the President, by elevating Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruuku into the Cabinet, provided a ground to confirm or dismiss Gachagua’s claims.

Political analysts believe that, unlike in other areas where by-elections will be conducted, Mbeere North is a unique electoral area whose electorate will go to the ballot due to Ruto’s wishes in what they term a strategic political game plan to take stock of the remaining support from a region that was once in his grip.

Ruto occasioned a by-election in Mbeere North even after facing setbacks in Embu, including an incident in November last year when he was heckled by congregants at a time when Gachagua, who had just been impeached, received a heroic welcome together with former President Uhuru Kenyatta.

Ruuku’s appointment to the Cabinet came at a time when his former Party Leader, Justin Muturi fell out with the President in a move pundits believe was Ruto’s strategy to strip Muturi of his political influence in Embu.

According to Bosco Mutegi, a political analyst based in Embu, Ruto’s move was keen on killing Muturi’s political ambition and providing the first political assignment for Deputy President Kithure Kindiki to campaign for the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate to prove his political worth against both Gachagua and Muturi.

“That is why Ruto has avoided the Mbeere North by-election — to prove a point that he is not Gachagua’s equal and to send a signal that he can only battle it out with his Deputy. If the UDA carries the seat, there will be a perception that Gachagua’s influence is cosmetic and that Ruto still enjoys support, especially from Mt Kenya East, probably because Kindiki hails from that region,” Mutegi noted.

On the other hand, if Muturi bags the seat, it will not only confirm that the region has broken ranks with Ruto but also enhance Muturi’s bargaining power in the Opposition, while cementing the perception that Gachagua is in charge of the region, especially outside Mt Kenya.

“Ruto may have wanted to deal with scientific proof that he no longer enjoys support from Mt Kenya, and it is a wise political card since he will have ample time to look for other votes confidently and aware that he was officially divorced by the voter-rich region. This will come with casualties, among them Kindiki, Embu Governor Cecile Mbarire and CS Ruuku,” noted Antony Mugambi, a political strategist from Meru.

Aware of the impending danger, Mbarire, a week ago, beseeched the electorate to prevent her from the shame and embarrassment of losing at home despite being the ruling party’s national chairperson.

“I'm now beseeching you as Mbeere North voters to do me a favour. Let me have this seat on the UDA ticket. I'm no longer sleeping because of this seat. Even if you don’t know him and you have never seen him, you will be doing me a great favour if you vote for him in. The pressure is huge,” she said.

In the case of Magarini, if Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) candidate Stanley Kenga trounces ODM’s Harry Kombe, the win will whitewash Ruto’s narrative against Gachagua that he is tribal and that his politics revolve around ethnic balkanisation.

The President has been dismissing Gachagua and the entire Opposition as a conglomeration of tribal bigots who focus solely on smear campaigns against the government rather than offering constructive alternatives.

“Wale wengine wasitupotezee wakati. Waache chuki, waache ukabila, waache fitina, waache porojo. Watengeneze manifesto yao, waje watuambie hii kilimo Ruto amefanya nini tofauti, ni nini watafanya. Lakini kama ni kutupumbaza, shauri yao.”

This is loosely translated to mean: “Those others should stop wasting our time. They should stop spreading hate, tribalism and theatrics; they should desist from propaganda and instead present their manifesto and give us an alternative of what they would do to transform the country.”

Irungu Nyakera, former Devolution Principal Secretary, said the by-election will change Ruto’s perception of Gachagua, noting that should the Opposition win the seats, Gachagua’s political impetus will rise astronomically.

“He is the face of the Opposition. It is his ‘Wantam’ (one term) slogan that the government responded to and corrupted into ‘Tutam’ (two-term) in a bid to counter the slogan that has spread like bushfire, and therefore he stands to benefit from the elections,” he averred.

Nyakera added that in areas where the government may emerge victorious, it would give the Opposition an opportunity to undertake self-introspection and evaluate their misses in readiness for the 2027 polls — a strategy he claimed may not work for the government due to growing disillusionment among Kenyans.

“In the unlikely event that the government wins, it would be because of monetary investment and hopes that it will still deliver. But by 2027, Kenyans will judge this administration harshly because it will be extremely difficult for it to achieve its numerous pledges to the electorate.”

Former Mukurweini MP Kabando wa Kabando said Gachagua should be credited for uniting the Opposition, a move he said will continue giving Ruto sleepless nights ahead of the by-elections and the 2027 General Election.

“Despite getting nearly 70 per cent of the vote in 1992 and 1997, the Opposition lost the Presidency and many MP slots due to disunity and selfishness. Refreshing fact of today: Gachagua deserves credit for initiating and prospering a united Opposition. By impeaching Gachagua, Ruto inadvertently gifted Kenya a political dynamo. Here comes a guaranteed #WANTAM! Cheers, Mulembe Nation Unity! Ukambani Wiper Unity!”

He added: “Those thinking that the vote-rich Mlima can be disunited are daydreamers. For practical and pragmatic unity of purpose, we stand in unflinching, unapologetic solidarity. Our unity momentum will triumph. Ruto is Kenya's existential threat. We must defeat him.”

In a bid to outdo each other, both the government and the Opposition have devised techniques to reach out to the electorate, including door-to-door campaigns, joining farmers in clearing and digging farms, and plucking miraa and muguka in farmers’ fields.

Gachagua has been holding interviews with local radio and television stations, conducting early-morning door-to-door campaigns, joining ordinary Kenyans in their eateries, and calling Opposition leaders through the phone to address supporters.

While he has focused on Mbeere North, his counterparts from the Western region — including Eugene Wamalwa and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya — have camped in Malava, while Kalonzo, who appears to be the unifying leader, has crisscrossed all areas where they have candidates.

On the other hand, Kindiki has camped in Mbeere North alongside key government allies from the area, while the President visited Malava earlier this year, where his point men have been Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and Ruto’s aide Farouk Kibet.

The UDA has only three candidates in the forthcoming by-elections — in Malava, Mbeere North and Banisa — while ODM has three in Magarini, Ugunja and Kasipul.

In the United Opposition, DCP has one candidate in Magarini; Wiper has Orodi Odhiambo in Ugunja; DAP-Kenya has Seth Panyako in Malava; and the Democratic Party has Newton Kariuki alias Karish in Mbeere North.