Godfathers hold their breath as mini polls gamble comes to a head

Running in an election can be nerve-wracking. The pressure to put up a solid performance has overwhelmed even the most grounded politicians. Now imagine having everything to lose when your name is not even on the ballot. Meet the godfathers whose stake in tomorrow’s mini-polls is as high as it gets.

With the 2027 General Election less than two years away, these by-elections are being treated as a miniature referendum. Leaders across the spectrum are leaving nothing to chance.

For figures in President William Ruto’s UDA and its broad-based partner ODM, the races have become the perfect stage for political bigwigs to prove their worth to their masters.

The candidates themselves are merely actors in a much larger play directed by bigger political hands seeking survival—or intent on crippling rivals—long before 2027.

Across the country, political godfathers are scrambling for dominance, using candidates as bait to test their own popularity. Regardless of the outcome, several leaders who have invested heavily in the polls stand to suffer bruising political blows. Their names may not appear on ballots or posters, but they are the forces driving the campaigns, pursuing personal goals under the guise of supporting their candidates.

The Standard has established that major political players view the by-elections as a crucial measure of their popularity and have turned them into must-win contests. But defeat would leave them exposed.

On Monday, as campaigns concluded, political titans—many of them aspiring to command regional blocs—made last-minute pitched appeals to the electorate. Yesterday, some deployed agents to monitor the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission’s (IEBC) preparedness and to map out potential foul play that could affect their preferred contenders.

Observers believe the mini-polls mark a major turning point ahead of 2027, explaining the heavy investment by key figures. According to political commentator Mark Bichachi, tomorrow’s contests are akin to US midterms—a litmus test of who truly enjoys public support.

“Whichever side wins big will be seen to have the people on their side,” he says.

In nearly all regions, the unseen hand of President William Ruto—using the polls as a de facto confidence vote for his administration—is unmistakable.

His lieutenants across the country are crossing their fingers the gamble works as it would determine their place in the Ruto 2027 machine.

In Western, his lieutenants Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula are walking a tightrope after a bruising campaign that has exposed their limited ability to unite the region behind Ruto.

A loss would leave egg on their faces and deepen doubts over their authority at a time confidence in Ruto’s administration is shaky and Raila Odinga’s once-dominant grip on the region has left a vacuum.

Mudavadi has been in overdrive selling their Malava candidate David Indakwa. For a man who sacrificed his own Amani National Congress to bolster UDA, the by-election is a moment to validate his relevance.

What seemed a routine contest to fill the seat left by the late Malulu Injendi has morphed into  a supremacy battle between Mudavadi, Wetang’ula and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.

In Kabuchai’s Chwele ward, the intensity is so disproportionate to the stakes—mere replacement of an MCA—that it borders on surreal. Violence, mammoth crowds and harsh words have marked the campaigns. Here, Wetang’ula and Natembeya are locked in a bitter power struggle over control of the region’s sizeable voting bloc.

On Saturday, an elderly man lost his life when a campaign event attended by Natembeya at the home of his preferred candidate Eric Wekesa turned chaotic after unknown individuals fired in the air.

Natembeya blames government operatives, claiming his Tawe movement, which seeks to reorganise Western politics and sideline UDA, has unsettled powerful figures.

Mudavadi, on the other hand, says they intend to consign the first-term governor to political oblivion come 2027. “We have strong candidates to run against you, and you will only serve one term,” he said.

President Ruto too has invested heavily in the Western races as he pushes to penetrate the region. Whether Mudavadi and Wetang’ula can truly spearhead UDA’s Western ambitions remains unclear after a campaign dominated by Ruto’s powerful aide Farouk Kibet.

Communications expert Charles Nyambuga argues the results will mirror the popularity of the regional bigwigs. “This is a little General Election, akin to that of 1966 between Kanu and KPU,” he says. Victory will grant bragging rights heading into 2027.

In Mt Kenya, the Mbeere North contest has become a three-way struggle involving former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, his successor Kithure Kindiki, and President Ruto. The campaigns have turned into a fierce popularity duel between Gachagua and Kindiki, both seeking to wear the crown of Mt Kenya kingpin. Kindiki backs UDA’s Leonard wa Muthende, while Gachagua has tirelessly campaigned for DCP’s Newton Kariuki.

For Kindiki, the stakes are even higher as the 2027 runningmate position is the most coveted seat among those in Ruto’s circles. If he delivers he will have a headstart but if trounced then he might as well kiss the post bye.

In Nyanza, old ODM-UDA battlelines have resurfaced in Kasipul, exposing ODM politicians allied to the Ruto administration. The contest has drawn in those angling to fill Raila Odinga’s shoes—chief among them Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and Treasury CS John Mbadi—each eager to demonstrate they can unite the region. Both back ODM’s Boyd Were, but their individual ambitions are unmistakable.

Wanga has poured enormous political capital into the race, making it a personal mission. Her deputy, Oyugi Magwanga, has defected to support Independent candidate Philip Aroko, who in turn enjoys backing from former Migori Governor Okoth Obado. On Sunday, Obado declared ODM “dead”, dismissing Mbadi’s leadership ambitions and urging supporters to shift towards Ruto.

A win for Aroko would be a major setback for Wanga, who has treated Were’s campaign as a proxy for her own strength.

“This is not just a by-election for candidates. The leaders are working to show their political strength. If the candidate they support loses, it is a major blow,” says advocate Clifford Obiero.

At the Coast, the Magarini contest—triggered by the nullification of Harrison Kombe’s 2022 victory—has become another battleground for political heavyweights. Wiper’s Samuel Nzai stepped down in favour of DCP’s Stanley Kenga, while top government-aligned leaders have rallied behind ODM’s Kombe. Former governor Hassan Joho, Senate Speaker Amason Kingi and Kilifi Governor Gideon Mung’aro have vigorously campaigned to secure the seat for ODM.

Kingi appealed to voters: “I plead with you to re-elect Kombe so that he can go back to Parliament and finish his term.”

Communication consultant Barrack Muluka argues the candidates are mere pawns. “Strictly speaking, the candidates mean nothing to them. They only want to prove to their boss that they are still relevant,” he says.

In Gusii, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i is leading a parallel effort to shut UDA out of three ward seats.