By-elections offer test of IEBC's credibility

As the electorate readies to cast its vote in a record 24 by-elections today, the stage has been set for a high-stakes political duel whose aftermath will reverberate well into the looming 2027 elections.

Whereas the elections were delayed by a lack of commissioners at the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), they come at a time of high-octane politics and have seen senior politicians falling over themselves to please the electorate as the polls shadow the next General Election.

Typical of high-stakes politics in the country, the campaigns have witnessed incidents of voter bribery, violence, use of state machinery and largesse, and other underhand tactics. The polls pose an acid test for many politicians, some of whose careers will take a turn depending on the results. The IEBC, with a new team of commissioners, is under the spotlight, as is the opposition outfit and the broad-based government.

The mini-polls, a welcome reprieve for Kenyans in six constituencies, one county and numerous wards where vacancies have been occasioned by deaths and court rulings, will take place across 134 polling stations mapped out across various counties.

In Banisa Constituency, for instance, the by-election heralds renewed hope as today’s democratic exercise brings an end to two years of lack of representation following the sudden demise of former MP Hassan Kullow in a road accident in 2023. Banisa is among five other constituencies where Kenyans will be making a decisive vote through the ballot. They include Ugunja, Malava, Mbeere North, Magarini and Kasipul. Baringo County will also hold a by-election.

Wards where by-elections are set to take place include Chewani (Tana River), Narok Town (Narok), Tembelio (Uasin Gishu), Lake Zone and Nanaam (Turkana), Kisia East, Kabuchai/Chwele, Purko, Ang’ata Nanyokie, Chemundu/Kapng’etuny and Metkei (Elgeyo Marakwet). Others are Nyansiongo, Nyamaiya and Ekerenyo (Nyamira), Mumbuni North (Machakos) and Kariobangi North (Nairobi).

In Magarini, Malava and Mbeere North constituencies, the by-elections have exploded into a national showdown pitting President William Ruto, the leader of the broad-based government, against former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, the face of the united opposition, with both seeking political bragging rights and momentum heading into the election year.

The duel for Mbeere North will see UDA’s Leo wa Muthende face off with Democratic Party’s Newton Karish, while DCP’s Stanley Kenga and ODM’s Harrison Kombe battle for the Magarini seat.

But in these areas already plagued by political tensions, today’s election has been overshadowed by widespread allegations of voter bribery and chaotic campaign events. Two deaths, several injuries and a Sh1 million fine each for two Kasipul contestants have characterised the campaign period.

With the opposition reporting vote-buying and intimidation attempts, residents head to the ballot under a cloud of uncertainty, casting doubt on the integrity of the process even before the votes are counted.

The mini-polls, which were meant to be a simple democratic exercise, are a test for the IEBC and the National Police Service — both accused of partiality.

Police IG

Inspector General of Police Douglas Kanja has, however, assured Kenyans of a peaceful exercise, while warning the political class against inflammatory remarks that could destabilise the country.

“In the upcoming by-elections, the NPS reiterates its unwavering commitment to executing its duties impartially, professionally and in strict adherence to the Constitution, in order to facilitate a peaceful, free, fair and credible electoral process. The public is assured that adequate security shall be deployed,” stated Kanja.

Responding to the opposition’s claims that the police are being used to orchestrate chaos, Kanja warned political leaders to conduct themselves within the confines of the law.

“Moreover, all political leaders are specifically called upon to desist from utterances that are inciteful to violence or bear hatred of whatever form. They should further refrain from making statements that could be interpreted as threatening or defamatory, or that undermine public confidence in our institutions,” he said. But the withdrawal of security detail for several opposition leaders with a direct stake in the elections has raised eyebrows.

DCP party leader Rigathi Gachagua on Tuesday accused the IG of using the police to disrupt his rallies, most recently in Narok on November 24, 2025. He subsequently called for the IG’s resignation. Gachagua claimed that President Ruto deployed state-sponsored militia, uniformed police officers and plain-clothes units to disrupt his campaign activities for DCP candidate Douglas Masikonde in Narok Town Ward.

He alleged IG Kanja ordered police officers to block all highways in and out of Narok Town, and to use live ammunition and lob teargas at crowds.

Kanja, however, reassured that the law would be applied fairly and consistently to all individuals without fear, favour, prejudice or bias.

His remarks came amid open voter-bribery accusations by the opposition. Yesterday, opposition reiteretad their claim that there was a plan to rig the by-elections across the country. Speaking during a press briefing on Wednesday, opposition principals led by Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, accused the IEBC of overseeing the “planned election fraud”. 

“We have credible information that the serialisation of 820,000 printed ballots was not done correctly and not properly inspected. This has created a dangerous loophole for ballot-stuffing through extra or unaccounted-for ballots,” he said. 

He further claimed 30,000 ballot papers dispatched to Magarini, Malava, and Mbeere North constituencies are pre-marked. 

On Tuesday, Wamalwa condemned alleged voter bribery in Malava, accusing some leaders of using relief food to influence voters.

In a viral video seen by The Standard, residents of Malava are seen receiving mattresses branded GOK and blankets. Wamalwa questioned the timing and motive of the donations with the elections just hours away.

In another video, the opposition’s candidate in Malava, Seth Panyako, is seen accusing government officials of bribing voters with Sh2,000 each.

“We have evidence and photos of all the bribery that has been going on and we have already shared the same with IEBC… If the government believes that Kenyans can independently cast their votes, then why do they need to use all this money?” posed Panyako.

But in a rejoinder, his opponent David Ndakwa refuted the bribery claims.

“They have sensed defeat and that is why they are in panic mode. If he (Panyako) wins then I will shake his hand because the lives of the people of Malava are more important. But if I win, he should also accept,” said Ndakwa.

The IEBC has maintained that all is well and assured the public of a free, fair and credible election.

IEBC Chairperson Erastus Ethekon said the commission had not received any formal complaint from aspirants regarding the claims. He urged aggrieved parties to follow stipulated procedures.

“There are concerns that have reached us; some have not, but we are addressing them as they come. We have seen those videos circulating, and we cannot verify exactly what they are. There is a procedure normally used to address such issues,” he said during a TV interview.

“We urge the concerned aspirants to raise the issue with the commission through proper channels. We have our returning officer on the ground; they can raise this matter so that we can verify whether indeed those mattresses or other bribery actions are true and take the necessary action. As of now, we have not received any formal complaint,” he added.

Separately, IEBC Chief Executive Officer Marjan Hussein Marjan assured Kenyans that preparations for today’s by-elections are complete, promising a free, fair and credible process. “All is set. We have trained all the clerks. Preparations for setting up the materials are ready, and ballots will be opened tomorrow [today].”

Additional reporting by Okumu Modachi

jthiongo@standardmedia.co.ke

A deeper analysis of the political developments, however, reveals intricate power plays between political godfathers.

In Nyanza, old ODM–UDA battle lines have resurfaced in Kasipul, exposing ODM politicians allied to the Ruto administration. The contest has drawn in those angling to fill Raila Odinga’s shoes — chief among them Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and Treasury CS John Mbadi — each eager to demonstrate they can unite the region. Both back ODM’s Boyd Were, but their individual ambitions are unmistakable.

Wanga has poured enormous political capital into the race, making it a personal mission. Her deputy, Oyugi Magwanga, has defected to support Independent candidate Philip Aroko, who in turn enjoys backing from former Migori Governor Okoth Obado. On Sunday, Obado declared ODM “dead”, dismissed Mbadi’s leadership ambitions and urged supporters to shift towards Ruto.

A win for Aroko would be a major setback for Wanga, who has treated Were’s campaign as a proxy for her own strength.

“This is not just a by-election for candidates. The leaders are working to show their political strength. If the candidate they support loses, it is a major blow,” says an advocate.

At the Coast, the Magarini contest triggered by the nullification of Harrison Kombe’s 2022 victory has become another battleground for political heavyweights.

Wiper’s Samuel Nzai stepped down in favour of DCP’s Stanley Kenga, while top government-aligned leaders have rallied behind ODM’s Kombe.

Former governor Hassan Joho, Senate Speaker Amason Kingi and Kilifi Governor Gideon Mung’aro have vigorously campaigned to secure the seat for ODM.

Kingi appealed to voters: “I plead with you to re-elect Kombe so that he can return to Parliament and finish his term.”

Communication consultant Barrack Muluka argues that the candidates are mere pawns.

“Strictly speaking, the candidates mean nothing to them. They only want to prove to their boss that they are still relevant,” he says.

In Gusii, the elections come at a time when Nyamira Governor Amos Nyaribo has been impeached, even as former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i strives to lock out UDA’s influence in the region.

In Ukambani, Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka is embroiled in a supremacy battle with CS Alfred Mutua, with each seeking political clout ahead of 2027.

Additional reporting by Okumu Modachi