Ruto's fear factor: How mini election exposed UDA's underbelly

The just ended by-elections have shown that President William Ruto and his Kenya Kwanza team will work extra hard to get the mandatory 50+1 vote in the 2027 General Election.

The alternative is going through a very tricky run-off against the opposition candidate.

Despite splashing money over three months in the hotly contested Mbeere and Malava by-elections and using other resources, including distribution of food, Kenya Kwanza candidates just scraped through.

Political analyst and leadership professor Gitile Naituli, says the government is in panic and the use of violence and voter bribery is a clear manifestation of the same.

“They have shown their hand too early and if the opposition organizes well, they have a possibility of winning the 2027 election,” says Naituli.

He thinks, depending on who the opposition fronts as its candidate, the elections could be a close and that is why Ruto needs to go all out and win over more allies- even from the opposition into his fold to ensure he attains the 50 per cent plus one vote.

Ruto’s win of the 2022 election with 7,176,141 votes (50.49 per cent), relied heavily on seven regions that delivered over 80 per cent of his tally.

Yet, three years into his tenure, marked by the dramatic impeachment of his first deputy Rigathi Gachagua,  a strong alliance has emerged among opposition leaders, and recent by-elections signal waning support in at least three critical zones of Western, Mt Kenya and Gusii region.

Political analysts also argue that the razor-thin margins were to be achieved through hook or crook, because Ruto wanted to create a perception that he still wields support in the Mt Kenya and Western regions.

“He may have succeeded in doing that, but the truth is that it will be very difficult to manipulate a General Election like they did in the by-elections. That is why the next election will be more closely contested than 2022,” says analyst Martin Andati.

It is from the argument that the reality of the president failing to garner the 50+1 threshold strongly comes into the picture, given that Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya appears to have already taken over the Bungoma-Trans Nzoia voting blocks.

All factors remaining constant, Natembeya is going to give Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi a very tough contest in Kakamega, Vihiga and Busia counties where his message appears to be resonating with the people.

In Malava, Natembeya’s candidate, Seth Panyako, garnered 20,210 votes against the winner's 21,564, and that means he may have lost the war but still won the battle against Mudavadi and, by extension, Ruto together with his government machinery.

There is also the risk of a fallout emerging in the so-called broad-based government because of the choice of the President’s running mate.

Prof Macharia Munene last month pointed out that to create room for an ODM running mate in 2027, the president may have wanted his deputy Kithure Kindiki’s candidate to lose the Mbeere North seat.

Failure to deliver could have been used as the reason of dropping him in 2027 to accommodate the ODM choice. Some ODM leaders, including new party leader Oburu Oginga, insist that their irreducible minimum to back Ruto’s re-election is a running mate position.

Ruto never appeared in Mbeere during the campaigns, leaving Kindiki to do all the heavy lifting. His candidate Leo Wa Muthende, defeated the one sponsored by regional heavyweights Gachagua and former Attorney General Justin Muturi.

“Ruto may have been setting Kindiki to fail but he delivered. How do you then push him out? What will ODM be negotiating for now? This are the issues Ruto will be thinking about even before dealing with the 50+1 headache,” says Andati.

The more unlikely scenario is picking Mudavadi as the running mate but that will again be sacrificing Kindiki and infuriating ODM, thus complicating matters more.

Analysts also think Mudavadi may not add a lot of value in Western, where the tide appears to have taken a different direction, especially after National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula failed to deliver a County Assembly seat in his home village.

The analysts also point out that from what transpired in the by-election, it appears Kenya Kwanza will carry out massive bribery.

But from the experience in Malava, heavy bribery of voters may not translate into votes.

Kenyan law requires a presidential candidate to obtain at least half of all valid votes cast plus one vote, while also securing at least 25 per cent of votes in at least 24 of the 47 counties.

Ruto’s narrow victory in 2022—where he secured 50.49 per cent against his main rival Raila Odinga—underscores how decisive margins and regional vote distribution are in determining presidential outcomes.

The November 27, 2025 by-elections featured seven parliamentary and senatorial contests alongside several ward races.

UDA, together with allied parties, swept seats in Mbeere North, Malava, Baringo, Banissa, Kasipul, Ugunja and Magarini.

In Mbeere North, Muthende (UDA) won with 15,802 votes against Newton Kariuki (Democratic Party), who garnered 15,308 votes.

Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei, a close ally of the President, described the by-election outcomes as a strong vote of confidence in Ruto’s leadership.

“This is a clear sign that UDA and ODM are the parties to beat in the general election. Nothing will change in 2027. The President will outrightly win,” he said.

Political analyst Moses Ombayo, says the results reinforces the value of the broad-based government strategy, particularly the UDA-ODM partnership.

He however, also notes that the narrow margins in these contests highlight a fragility that could be exposed in a general election, where turnout is higher and opposition campaigns more vigorous.

According to Ombayo, the slim wins suggest that Ruto’s second-term bid may be just as tight as the by-elections.

In Mbeere North, the winning margin was 494 votes. Malava’s margin was similarly narrow, at 1,354 votes.

Analysts argue that such small margins underscore how evenly matched rival camps remain.

For a candidate to reach 50 per cent plus one vote and meet the 25-percent-in-24-counties threshold, vote spread matters—not just dominance in strongholds, but meaningful inroads into contested or opposition-leaning areas.

The Malava outcome suggests that under the right political alignment, Western Kenya could still play a decisive role in Ruto’s attempt to secure re-election.

But political actors such as Natembeya remain influential, complicating local dynamics.

The by-elections have also worried some leaders who say voters may be shifting away from party loyalty and toward individual merit.

Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa, reacting to the Chwele–Kabuchai Ward loss by a pro-government candidate, warned that leaders must listen to voters or risk irrelevance.

Barasa said many voters are now focusing on candidates’ development records rather than party affiliation.

In Kisii and Nyamira, many Ruto allies may prioritize their own political survival in 2027 after voters showed willingness to depart from traditional voting patterns.

One -term reality

South Mugirango MP Silvanus Osoro’s involvement in Nyamira ward by-elections highlighted the limits of localized campaigning.

The Thursday by-elections were held in Nyamaiya Ward, Ekerenyo Ward, and Nyansiongo Ward. Despite Osoro leading UDA’s efforts, the seats were won by opposition party affiliated with former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i.

Governance expert Francis Ominde emphasizes that sustained voter engagement and visible development delivery will be crucial for Ruto if he hopes to avoid the “one-term” reality.

“The by-elections have shown how hard it will be for the regime to clearly win in 2027,” said Ominde.

An analysis of vote tallies in the 2022 polls reveals Ruto’s influence in some regions is waning, largely because some allies like National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula are losing support, while others like and Gachagua shifted to rival camps.

Ruto’s 2022 victories were regional and he largely relied on his Rift Valley stronghold, where he amassed over 2.5 million votes from the 16 counties.

Through Gachagua’s backing, he received a staggering 2.9 million votes which is 78 per cent average of the vote in the Mt Kenya region’s eight counties, while in Western he amassed 452,238, out of which Bungoma contributed 256,337.

Additional reporting by David Odongo and Brian Kisanji