The emergence of a new political axis after the by-elections

Following the intense campaigns witnessed in the recent by-elections across the country, new political forces appear to be taking shape with a possible implication on the political dynamics of 2027.

The battle for regional control in several areas may be shifting, attracting fresh entrants  into the political arena. Consequently, areas that were once considered a guaranteed win for ODM and its partner UDA are no longer firmly in their grip as opponents dig in. 

In Western Kenya, the three by-elections demonstrate that by the 2027 General Election, new political factions will have emerged to challenge the traditional political order.

On one side are Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, who represent the traditional political order. Their quest for the throne, however, faces a stiff competition as a new political wave seeks to push them into political oblivion.

Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, whose bold, vocal and defiant brand of politics is leading the charge to create a new political order in Western, unsettling the old guard.

The litmus test that was the by-elections indicates that he is on the right track after candidates he backed gave government-sponsored candidates a run for their money.

Natembeya has been mounting an audacious campaign to rally the Luhya community under a single political banner, a feat that has eluded leaders for generations.

This growing friction came to the fore during the by-elections, where Mudavadi and Wetang’ula found themselves locked in a fierce contest with the first-term governor.

From the Malava parliamentary race to the Chwele–Kabuchai (Bungoma) and Kisa East (Kakamega) ward by-elections, Natembeya of Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) insisted that wins by his preferred candidates would signal a shift in the region’s political order, effectively dethroning Mudavadi and Wetang’ula as Western Kenya’s kingpins.

Mudavadi, leading UDA, and Wetang’ula with his Ford-Kenya party mounted their own coordinated offensive to safeguard their influence within Kenya Kwanza and the broader government.

The by-elections only amplified the rivalry, with both camps believing the results would shape the power balance heading into the 2027 General Election.

In Malava, UDA’s David Ndakwa—backed by Mudavadi and the pro-government team—faced Seth Panyako (DAP-K), supported by Natembeya and his United Opposition.

The contest was part of the broader battle that has unfolded over months of Natembeya urging long-dominant leaders like Mudavadi to pave way for a new generation.

In Chwele–Kabuchai, independent candidate Erick Wekesa won with 6,162 votes against Ford-Kenya’s Vincent Maunda, who managed 2,765. Though running as an independent, Wekesa enjoyed the backing of Natembeya, former Bungoma Governor Wycliffe Wangamati and area MP Majimbo Kalasinga.

Wetang’ula cast his vote at Namakhele Primary School, but at that polling station, Wekesa defeated the Ford-Kenya candidate with 268 votes against 195.

In Kisa East, Mudavadi’s UDA candidate James Shiraku managed only 61 votes. The MCA seat went to Dickson Aduda Okwiri of the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), who garnered 1,952 votes, followed by Joel Ongoro of the Movement for Democracy and Growth (MDG) with 1,541.

Political commentators believe these results reveal a significant challenge to Mudavadi and Wetang’ula’s dominance.

Wetang’ula suffered one of the most embarrassing defeats of his political career.

Governance expert Francis Ominde described the two leaders as “walking a tightrope,” noting that their performance was crucial in demonstrating regional influence to President William Ruto.

He argued that although the by-elections may not directly predict the 2027 outcome, they have set the tone for the political contest ahead.

“Natembeya supported the winner in Chwele–Kabuchai, and that means he has won over Wetang’ula. For Wetang’ula, his bargaining power might not be gone but has reduced due to the Tawe Movement,” he added.

For decades, Western Kenya has struggled to unite politically.

Yet Natembeya’s aggressive push appears to be rattling the dominant establishment. Mudavadi and Wetang’ula, long considered the region’s political kingpins, now find themselves firmly in his crosshairs.

Through his “Tawe Movement,” Natembeya has accused the two leaders of holding the region hostage for years while failing to deliver meaningful development under the Kenya Kwanza government.

Analysts say Ndakwa’s win strengthens Mudavadi’s standing in the broad-based government, but Wetang’ula’s loss in Chwele–Kabuchai has weakened him.

The government side in Malava, led by UDA, ran a high-level, well-funded campaign spearheaded by President Ruto’s aide Farouk Kibet and Mudavadi himself.

During the campaigns, Mudavadi issued a stern warning to Natembeya, signalling an escalated political confrontation.

“He has only served his first term and already thinks he is the most famous person in the world. My friend, you will not survive in Trans Nzoia. We will bring a candidate who will unseat you,” he declared.

Similarly, in Gusii, major political realignments are taking shape in Gusiiland, especially after the United Opposition claimed victory in all the three wards of Nyamira.

In what has been seen as a pointer of the 2027 General Elections, politicians eyeing various elective seats are on reckoning moments as former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i's wave gathers momentum ahead of the polls.

It is expected that Matiang'i will consolidate fully the Region politically, a move whose success will have a far-reaching impact to those opposed to his rise from the Community.

Already, warning bells have been sounded to political leaders from the Region who have been antagonistic of his rise; if the outcome of the mini-polls would be anything to buy.

Politicians allied to the Government from Gusii Region are currently in retreat mode as they reel in reflections over the gruelling campaigns that saw State-sponsored candidates lose the mini polls with resounding margins.

In Nyamaiya, for example, United Opposition’s United Progressive Alliance(UPA) candidate Christopher Osiemo clinched a landslide victory by claiming 4,790 votes against 1,400 of the UDA candidate Thomas Nyandieka.

In Nyansiongo Ward, UDA candidate Denis Kebaso emerged third in the contest, garnering 1,371 against the winner, Jackson Mogusu who got for himself 2,759 votes.

The gruelling campaigns had seen the wards contest fast magnified into a National duel featuring former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr Fred Matiang’i and President William Ruto, with National political bigwigs and local MPs converging at the grassroots for the showdown.

It was the United Democratic Alliance(UDA)’s show of might that saw Government-sponsored choppers dominate the skies of Nyamaiya, Ekerenyo and Nyansiongo Wards as the campaigns intensified.

The UDA campaign front in the three Nyamira wards was driven by Education Cabinet Secretary Migos Ogamba, UDA Party National Treasurer who is also the Kitutu Chache North MP Japhet Nyakundi, National Assembly Majority Whip Sylvanus Osoro, Nyamira Woman Representative Jerusha Momanyi, her Kisii Counterpart Doris Donya, Gusii MPs Parliamentary Caucus Chairman who is also North Mugirango MP Joash Nyamoko and various Government appointees to various State agencies who rallied for the UDA Party candidates in the three areas.

"The huge victory the United Opposition garnered is a direct pointer to the desperation Abagusii voters have in trying to consolidate their own base for the sake of Matiang'i," United Progress Party (UPA) Party Secretary General Jacob Bagaka said after the formation won two of the three seats.

The confidence of the former CS in vying and clinching the presidency in 2027 has inspired confidence in the region.

"It is a moment for all politicians from Gusii to come together for the common good of supporting one of our own. This should be total teamwork and no one against the team will prevail politically from the Community," former West Mugirango MP Vincent Kemosi said after the by-election results were announced.

Former Kisii Central MCA Kepha Mogaka alias Mrefu, on his part, gave a resounding warning against politicians opposed to Matiang'i.

"We are watching. The door is about to close and if anyone is left outside, then their political lights will be as well deemed as dimmed," Mrefu said.

National Assembly Majority Whip, Sylvanus  Osoro, said UDA had made a stride in claiming the opposition stronghold which in the last General elections had managed to score 33 per cent of the area’s vote compared to the current 39 per cent that was reflected in the by-elections.

Report by Brian Kisanji, Stanley Ongwae and Harold Odhiambo