Tough times ahead for Wetang'ula after shocking defeat in mini-polls

National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula is facing one of the toughest moments of his political career after suffering a humiliating defeat in the Chwele–Kabuchai Ward by-election. 

Political analysts and the former Bungoma Senator's opponents say the upset has put his influence and bargaining power at serious risk.

Wetang’ula, long regarded as one of Western Kenya’s key political kingpins, had thrown his weight behind Ford-Kenya candidate Vincent Maunda in a contest widely seen as a test of his continued dominance in Bungoma politics.

But the results told a different story. Independent candidate Erick Wekesa, backed by Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, former Bungoma Governor Wycliffe Wangamati and area MP Majimbo Kalasinga, swept to victory with 6,162 votes against Maunda’s 2,765.

At Namakhele Primary School, where Wetang’ula cast his vote, Wekesa still defeated Maunda—268 votes to 195, further deepening Wetangula's woes.

The outcome has sent shockwaves through Western Kenya and raised questions about Wetang’ula’s future as Speaker and his standing within the Kenya Kwanza government and the broader ruling political formation.

His place in President William Ruto’s government has also been put under debate.

Voters and some leaders say that Bungoma County is now taking a different view of party politics away from Wetang’ula. 

The latest to acknowledge this shift is Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa, who noted that many voters are now focusing on candidates’ development records rather than strictly on party loyalty.

"Many voters and political supporters in Bungoma County now prefer development-focused messages and candidates who fulfill their promises when making political choices," said Barasa, who also supported the Ford-Kenya candidate.

Analysts argue that Wekesa's victory as an Independent candidate is a sign of change in Bungoma politics, historically dominated by Ford-Kenya.

MP Kalasinga described the results as a new awakening for voters who are beginning to reject the Ford-Kenya hegemony while putting Wetang’ula on notice over his prolonged dominance. 

Leaders speaking in Bungoma after Wekesa's win emphasized the need for voters to start electing individual candidate rather than focusing on who the regional kingpin is.

"Wekesa's victory shows that those who thought they were godfathers in the region should know that voters have changed their mindset," said Kalasinga.

Wangamati further declared that the defeat signaled the end of Wetang’ula’s political influence in Bungoma County and Trans Nzoia.

"After a lot of chest-thumping by Wetang’ula and his team, I want to tell you that the narrative of Papa Wa Roma is over after this humbling defeat," Wangamati said.

The winner, Wekesa, appeared jubilant after what he described as a grueling campaign where state machinery allegedly tried to undermine him.

"Bungoma has awoken, and it started with our victory in Chwele–Kabuchai Ward. We will chart our path far from Ford-Kenya," said Wekesa.

Governance expert Francis Ominde says Wetang’ula is now “walking a tightrope” after one of the most embarrassing defeats of his career.

“Wetang’ula has stepped into murky waters,” Ominde said. “This loss in his own backyard has reduced his bargaining power in broad-based government,” said Ominde.

Ominde added that while by-election results may not directly determine the 2027 General Election, they have significantly reshaped perceptions of Wetang’ula’s influence.

“Natembeya supported the winner in Chwele–Kabuchai race, and that means he has won over Wetang’ula. For Wetang’ula, his bargaining power might not be gone, but it has certainly declined,” he said.

The setback highlights the meteoric rise of Natembeya, whose push for a new political direction in Western Kenya has rattled the old guard. 

Natembeya’s Tawe Movement, built on rejecting complacency and corruption, has gained traction, especially among young voters and disillusioned supporters of traditional leaders.

By backing Wekesa, Natembeya delivered Wetang’ula a symbolic defeat that reverberated far beyond Bungoma, emboldening his challenge to the veteran politician.