High-stakes scramble for Nairobi intensifies as election clock ticks

With 20 months to the next General Election, the scramble for political seats in Nairobi has begun in earnest, with the gubernatorial race drawing the most interest. 

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is upbeat that his Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) will not only capture the gubernatorial and senatorial seats but will also sweep most parliamentary and county assembly positions. 

He claims to have  struck a deal with Wiper Patriotic Front party leader Kalonzo Musyoka on how they will zone Nairobi to defeat candidates fielded by other parties, including President William Ruto’s UDA and other broad-based government-affiliated parties, including ODM. 

Embakasi East MP Babu, of the ODM party but currently working with a group of young parliamentarians like Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Caleb Amisi (Saboti), Gathoni Wamuchomba (Githunguri) and Antony Kibagendi (Kitutu Chache South), among others, has declared his bid for the Nairobi gubernatorial seat. 

The group has reportedly already opened an office in Nairobi, and it is now speculated that they are in the process of registering their own political party. 

Given that most of these youthful MPs are opposed to the so-called broad-based government between UDA and ODM, their political manoeuvres in the coming months will be keenly followed. 

Also interested in the gubernatorial seat are James Gakuya (Embakasi North MP) and former Trade Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria, who last week announced that Makadara MP George Aladwa would be his running mate. 

Aladwa has since rejected the offer and declared that he will also be on the ballot, running for governor on the ODM ticket. 

“I don’t intend to deputise anybody. Instead, I will be running for Nairobi governor. Anyone who wants to contest should come and face me in the nomination race,” wrote Aladwa on his social media handles. 
 
Before he died, Raila Odinga, the former ODM party leader, had indicated that the broad-based government could support current Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja’s re-election bid. 

Yesterday, Gachagua tried to disown the controversial remarks he made in Kariobangi over the weekend, to the effect that DCP is the only party from the United Opposition that will field candidates for the gubernatorial and senatorial seats, 16 out of the 17 MP seats, and 75 out of 88 Member of County Assembly (MCA) positions. 

The statement jolted other party leaders, and those utterances could create a major split in the United Opposition. The media had reported Gachagua allegedly saying the seats would be taken by one community from the Mt Kenya region, while a few would be reserved for Kalonzo’s Wiper party. 

“DCP is the party for Nairobi, and the Kariobangi North MCA seat win is the beginning of our politics in Nairobi. We have all planned ourselves very well. We have agreed with the Wiper leader that the governor, senate and woman representative seats will be taken by DCP,” said Gachagua during a thanksgiving service at PCEA Kariobangi North on Sunday. 

His sentiments have, however, since driven a wedge within the United Opposition, with Kalonzo claiming that there is no such agreement secretly signed between the two parties. 

“People should stop this propaganda of saying that Wiper has surrendered all seats in Nairobi to DCP. You know they have to try everything to make sure that Gachagua and I clash, but that will not happen,” stated Kalonzo during a thanksgiving service in Machakos on Monday. 
 
And yesterday, his lieutenant and Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo defended Gachagua’s utterances, terming them a warning shot to the broad-based proponents ahead of the General Election. 

“Rigathi Gachagua was just driving a hard bargain, and he was sending the political message that the city is gone with the United Opposition. But I also want to confirm that there is no deal between Wiper and DCP, because the coalition is bigger and supported across all regions of the country,” said Maanzo. 

Political analyst Tom Mboya now argues that it was wrong for Gachagua to make such a divisive statement, terming his utterances misplaced. 

“Gachagua made the sentiments based on his own political calculations. But the fact is, Nairobi being cosmopolitan, any candidate requires collaboration to be politically successful. He must take into account that there are other communities that will be contesting in 2027, and therefore it is not entirely up to him how the outcome of the race will be,” said Mboya. 

He argued that the Kamba and Mt Kenya votes may not be enough to guarantee a gubernatorial victory in Nairobi, premised on the fact that other communities such as the Luo and Luhya make up a huge voting bloc of the 2.4 million registered Nairobi voters as of 2022, according to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. 

Political analyst Herman Manyora observes that Kuria is not a determining factor in the governor's race. 

“In Nairobi, ODM and DCP will have a say on who ultimately becomes governor. It will be decided by the leading party lines and where politicians such as Ruto, Gachagua, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, Kalonzo, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Babu Owino are. Kuria has no space at the negotiations table because there is absolutely nothing that favours him,” Prof Manyora remarked. 

Following the demise of Raila, Manyora averred that it would be an uphill task for Sakaja to retain his seat past 2027. 

Notably, prior to his passing, Raila had not only endorsed Sakaja but had also shielded him from ouster by Nairobi County MCAs who were baying for his removal over alleged incompetence in running the city. 

“Baba was determined to save Sakaja but with Raila gone, the arithmetic changes. It is not as clear-cut as it was on whether UDA’s Sakaja will get the backing of ODM. Raila was the only one who could sway support in favour of Sakaja, but without his say, Babu Owino may comfortably find himself in the armpits of ODM as its candidate. Or, if there is a breakup of ODM, Babu may find his way to an outfit that comfortably accommodates him,” added Manyora. 

Jubilee Party’s Deputy Secretary General Pauline Njoroge, while reacting to Gachagua’s utterances, warned against taking the tribal route in a cosmopolitan city like Nairobi.