'President' Owalo: Is he Ruto's rival or playing hidden card?

Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo was the first to publicly play down former Deputy Chief of Staff Eliud Owalo’s declaration that he would contest the presidency in 2027.

Dismissing it as “hot-air, a wild goose chase and a fools errand” the outspoken legislator said Owalo’s presidential bid may be more strategic than substantive “serving as a political springboard for other elective ambitions rather than a genuine bid for the country’s top office”.

The MP’s take echoed other voices yesterday which makes Owalo’s resignation as Deputy Chief of Staff in charge of Delivery and Government Efficiency more than just a routine administrative shuffle but a sign of two things; one is exposure of the cracks in President William Ruto’s administration and advisors who have been heavily criticized. Secondly, the objective of the resignation is to play a hidden card courtesy of his boss, President Ruto. 

Owalo claimed that remaining in government was no longer tenable, a statement that, intentionally or not, lays bare the inefficiencies and internal contradictions critics have accused the Ruto administration of harbouring. 

A current advisor has been lamenting that most of the advisory roles in the government are simply titles without budgets, offices or job descriptions. 

For some, it signified a technocrat fleeing a sinking ship or an untenable working environment. For the more strategically minded, however, Owalo’s exit bore the signs of a calculated gambit. The prevailing theory is that he was not fleeing from something, but being dispatched to some other errand, specifically, to play a pivotal, disruptive role in the 2027 presidential election. 

Political analyst Odoyo Owidi says the critical question is not just if Owalo can get votes in Luo Nyanza, but what nature of support he can gather. “His credentials are formidable. He a tech consultant, a key architect of Ruto’s digital transformation agenda, and a son of the soil with deep roots in Nyanza. He would not be a political non-starter. However, to translate this into a winning formula is hard without good funding.” 

This leads to the 2027 Luo Nyanza voting calculation: Could Owalo’s votes be enough to deny ODM the numerical dominance it relies on in Nyanza to anchor a national presidential campaign?  

Kanu operative Tony Gachoka thinks Owalo’s candidacy is less about his own path to State House and more about meticulously carving a path for someone else. Gachoka says Owalo’s decision is significant because it is a move by Ruto to shape and control the Luo vote in 2027.  

“I worked with Owalo in his earlier political life when he worked with Raila Odinga in the Presidential Team of Cord in 2013. He later moved on to work with Musalia Mudavadi, and lastly, he joined Ruto long before it was fashionable to do so,” says Gachoka who adds that for 15 years, Owalo has exhibited rare political survival skills by moving in and around political partnerships and landing on his feet. 

“His decision to vie for the presidency is both strategic and selfish. Strategic because Ruto, who is desperate for the Luo Nyanza vote, has pinpointed him as a significant player to capture part of that region from ODM dominance to help him bargain with them better. Selfish because he avoids going back to ODM to fight for space and influence in its future political deals,” says Gachoka who was at one time an aide to the late Raila.  

He says that ODM is under pressure to field a presidential candidate, and would have their vote divided and this would force them to negotiate with Ruto and Owalo in a run-off scenario.  

The entry of Owalo is important because the era of coalitions may be coming to an end with Kenya moving back to 1992, where numerous candidates ran for president.

“Going forward, many other parties will declare their candidacy in areas perceived to be strongholds of others,” says Gachoka.  

Others view Owalo’s declaration as the kicks off a dying horse. Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula says Owalo can’t win any to seat. 

“He has never even won any seat in his life. How does he think he can be president?” says Savula. 

Former Law Society of Kenya president Nelson Havi did not mince his words. “I am a candidate in the 2027 elections and I have no time to engage myself with inconsequential people like Owalo,” says Havi. 

Kisii senator Richard Onyonka is cautious about Owalo’s entry into the presidential race. An ally of  Jubilee presidential aspirant Fred Matiang’i, Onyonka says anyone can run for any position.

“My belief is that with the passing of Mzee Raila, many people in nyanza will pretend to run for the presidency or indeed some will want this, but history tells us that in Kenya we always only have a two horse race when it comes to presidential elections. Anybody else doing anything different will be seen as a spoiler,” he says.  

Owalo, who previously served as CS for Information, Communications and the Digital Economy, announced his bid on Sunday in Siaya during the commemoration of the death of his grandfather, Johanna Owalo, the founder of the Nomiya Church.