Opposition headed for retreat to agree on candidate to face Ruto

The United Opposition is headed to a crucial retreat tomorrow to deliberate on their presidential flagbearer, when to name him or her, and agree on the choice of the coalition they will use.

The meeting comes in the wake of former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s move to revive the moribund Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Alliance and naming Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka as its party leader to succeed the late Raila Odinga.

Kalonzo, alongside Peoples’ Liberation Party (PLP) leader Martha Karua, have been the co-convenors of the United Opposition.

Karua had exited the Azimio coalition after claiming that her party did not resonate with the coalition's ideologies following Raila's move to join the broad-based government.

A section of the principals in the United Opposition have been opposed to the idea of approaching next year’s polls using the Azimio coalition on the grounds that they needed a fresh coalition which would not be haunted by the ghosts of the party that sponsored Raila in the 2022 general election.

As the Opposition leaders retreat to get the brief from Kalonzo on Uhuru’s move to revive the coalition, some of Gachagua's key allies have dismissed the coalition.

Embakasi North MP James Gakuya maintained that the leaders in Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) will be demanding the registration of a new coalition and not reviving Azimio, which he maintains can't get the traction from Mt Kenya region after rejecting it in the 2022 general election.

“The United Opposition has no space in Azimio. We cannot recognize it at all and if we are going to form a new coalition moving forward. It shouldn’t be Azimio. We reject it in totality,” Gakuya said.

The MP, who has announced his Nairobi gubernatorial ambitions, says if Uhuru was targeting to accommodate ODM in the Opposition coalition, it is ODM that should get an entity to join the bigger United Opposition and not the other way round.

“Which ODM is Uhuru bringing back to Azimio? The Oburu ODM faction or the Young Tax faction? Why can’t the ODM youth team find another entity and join the bigger faction of the United Opposition?” Gakuya posed.

The Opposition will also address the issue of when to name their candidate to face President William Ruto. While Kalonzo proposes that they should name their candidate in the first quarter of this year, Gachagua believes announcing their candidate should be their last strategy in a bid to avoid spilling the beans to attract unwarranted infiltration from the government.

Democracy Action Party (DAP-K) leader Eugene Wamalwa believes the Opposition should reveal their candidate six months before the general election while Democratic Party (DP) leader Justin Muturi believes they should avoid the homestretch naming of their candidate, as that could lead to confusion and thus mass exodus of their supporters to another coalition.

Drawing comparisons in the 2002 general election, Muturi avers that the then-ruling Kenya African National Union (KANU) kept its succession plan secret, a move he says allowed jostling among potential successors, which led to mass exodus from KANU and the eventual formation of the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC).

“The damage was already irreparable and this is what led to Kanu’s defeat. Waiting till the tail end could be disastrous. It could be a situation like the tsunami that hit KANU in 2002. There might be no time to control the damage of the fallout,” Muturi said.

He said he was intending to convince his colleagues in the Opposition even as he deconstructed Gachagua’s school of thought that deciding on their candidate would see Ruto zero in on him.

On his part, Kalonzo had maintained that they would have named their candidate by April this year in a strategy he said would unite the Opposition more.

“I think that is what is going to unite us more. I personally think we should have agreed on who our flagbearer is within the first quarter because, again, Kenyans want certainty to be able to plan and to make sure that William Ruto will not rig the coming election,” he said.

Wamalwa, on the other hand, says the Opposition should name their candidate six months to the general election and the candidate should have a wider national appeal, a proven track record, no questionable character and no corruption-related cases.

While justifying why they need to announce their candidate at the tail end of the campaigns, Gachagua has insisted, "early announcement will expose the candidate to a political witch-hunt by the State, aimed at derailing their presidential ambitions.”

Those familiar with tomorrow's meeting said the Opposition leaders will agree on a framework to choose their flagbearer, decide whether to abandon Azimio or rebrand it and discuss how they will remain united.

Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo says the leaders will exchange notes on how the government has tried to reach out to them individually as they renew their commitment to stay together.

“The government has tried looking for Kalonzo, Matiangi and Gachagua and tomorrow’s meeting will be like an oath-taking ceremony where they will stick together. They are banking on propaganda to disunite us,” Maanzo said.

He said the framework to get the right candidate will evaluate the political arithmetic that may make or break the acceptability of the presidential candidate.

“If we pick a candidate from Ukambani, we can't pick a running mate from the Mt Kenya region, and vice versa. With Gachagua being a kingmaker, the arithmetic that seems to favour us is the Western and Ukambani axis producing the presidential candidate and the running mate. These are some of the proposals on the table,” Maanzo noted.

Maanzo said they had convinced Kalonzo to abandon the idea of naming a candidate early, saying he could be targeted by the State.