Why Oburu Oginga camp is desperate for a slice of power

Leaders of the Oburu Oginga faction of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) are sending mixed signals about their intentions in the broad-based government arrangement.

On the one hand, they publicly declare support for President William Ruto’s re-election bid; on the other, they caution party members against openly campaigning for him or his United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

The contradiction was laid bare at a rally held in Mombasa two weeks ago, where Minority Leader Junet Mohamed warned Oketch Salah, a self-declared adopted son of the late ODM leader Raila Odinga, against printing ODM T-shirts emblazoned with President Ruto’s image.

“Salah, stop this business of making T-shirts for the President and ODM together. Make T-shirts for ODM alone or we will whip you,” said Junet, who was master of ceremonies at the rally at Tononoka Grounds.

Earlier, in Homa Bay, ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga cautioned party members against campaigning for UDA in the region.

Bargaining power

Yet leaders from the same Oburu-Wanga faction have continued to declare their support for President Ruto’s re-election, leaving many party supporters wondering how the party intends to negotiate effectively with the government under the broad-based arrangement.

The faction has been criss-crossing its traditional strongholds to drum up support for Ruto’s second term, arguing that they were incorporated into the broad-based framework by Raila.

However, political pundits warn that such early endorsements could significantly weaken ODM’s bargaining power.

Among ODM leaders openly campaigning for the President are Cabinet Secretaries Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), John Mbadi (National Treasury), and Hassan Joho (Blue Economy and Mining), alongside several party legislators.

Wandayi has been urging ODM supporters to back Ruto’s re-election, describing the President as a genuine friend of the Nyanza region.

“Politically, we have only two clear formations, and there will be no major shift between now and the elections. You are either with President Ruto or with the other formation led by Gachagua. This confusion that a few of us want to introduce must be dealt with early,” Wandayi said.

Mathare MP Antony Oluoch last week argued that it would be illogical for ODM to exit government and re-join the opposition ahead of next year’s election.

“What political theory suggests that you should leave government to join the opposition in order to return to government?” Oluoch posed.

Broad-based benefits

Mbadi has also urged Nyanza residents to vote for Ruto next year, citing the President’s development record. He criticised a section of ODM leaders opposed to Ruto’s re-election, accusing them of failing to present a viable alternative.

“There are leaders who incite people against Ruto’s re-election bid. They may try, but their efforts will come to nothing because Ruto will be re-elected in 2027. As a party, ODM has resolved to support Ruto, and there is no further debate on the matter,” Mbadi said.

Wanga has also been mobilising support for Ruto, highlighting what she describes as the many benefits of ODM’s working relationship with his administration in the party’s strongholds.

“We support the government and the programmes the President is rolling out. We may not see immediate results, but improvements in our health sector will soon become evident. Although there have been teething problems with SHA, the programme is gaining momentum and will transform healthcare for our people,” Wanga stated.

However, political analysts, along with the ODM faction led by Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, argue that Oburu’s group cannot already be campaigning for the President while simultaneously demanding a power-sharing formula within the broad-based arrangement.

Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, who is aligned with Sifuna’s faction, claimed that their rivals are solely focused on securing Ruto’s re-election and are acting contrary to Raila’s wishes.

“The leaders supporting Ruto are betraying Raila. He never wanted us to back Ruto in next year’s election. Those who accepted Cabinet positions did so against his wishes. He was in Dubai at the time, and by the time he returned, they had already taken up the posts. He chose not to embarrass them publicly,” Amisi said.

He added, “Baba wanted us to field a presidential candidate in 2027. I recall him telling us we should benefit from this administration for a while, since they stole our election.”

Nevertheless, Amisi also faulted Raila for the confusion engulfing the party, accusing him of failing to clearly state his political position on whether to support President Ruto’s re-election bid.