Zoning debate threatens UDA-ODM harmony on the Coast

The fear that one political party could dominate both houses of Parliament after the 2027 general election has caused jitters in ODM and UDA as the clock ticks towards the polls.

As the two major parties in the broad-based government prepare for pre-election talks, political observers say ODM and UDA lieutenants are anxious about reserving seats for either party, fearing this could lead to dominance in the National Assembly and Senate.

Political analyst and Mombasa lawyer Aboubakar Yusuf noted that it is healthy for parties to compete freely warning that pre-election zoning can advantage one party, potentially dominating Parliament and enabling it to bully or blackmail its coalition partner.

“ODM and UDA can agree to support one presidential candidate, but it is advisable to compete for other seats to avoid dominance and possible blackmail in the two houses of Parliament,” he explained.

He added that President William Ruto agreed to a concession arrangement between UDA and ODM during last November’s by-elections to retain ODM support ahead of the 2027 polls.

Pwani University lecturer Hassan Mwakimako argued that zoning can cause confusion in areas where both parties are strong or have popular candidates, potentially leading to political fallouts.

“If you tell a popular candidate from one party to step down for a coalition partner’s candidate, it can create a fallout and disadvantage the presidential candidate,” Professor Mwakimako said.

He highlighted Mombasa County as a case in point, where both ODM and UDA are strong and have popular candidates.

According to him, zoning is only suitable where a party or candidate enjoys clear support above 50 percent, and must be carefully managed to avoid fallout.

“If zoning is implemented, candidates who step aside are promised government positions. If the presidential candidate loses, those politicians end up with nothing,” he added.

Pundits argue that post-election coalition arrangements, such as that orchestrated by Mandera Senator Ali Roba’s United Democratic Movement (UDM) with Kenya Kwanza, are simpler, avoiding the complications associated with pre-election zoning.

In the Magarini by-election in Kilifi County, President Ruto asked UDA candidate Stanley Kenga to step down for ODM’s Harrison Kombe, who went on to recapture the seat.

On the Coast, the debate on zoning has intensified as ODM and UDA plan pre-election coalition talks, amid fears that some seats may be reserved for either party, echoing recent by-elections.

The ODM National Delegates Convention (NDC), scheduled for March 27 in Nairobi, is expected to give party leader Dr Oburu Oginga the go-ahead to enter pre-election talks with President Ruto.

However, leaders from both UDA and ODM have voiced opposition to possible zoning in the Coast region and are preparing for political battles in the 2027 polls.

UDA Secretary-General and Mombasa gubernatorial aspirant Hassan Omar, alongside Cabinet Secretary for Mining, Blue Economy and Maritime Affairs Hassan Joho, are leading the campaign against zoning in the region.

Omar, a member of the East African Legislative Assembly and former Mombasa senator, declared that UDA will field candidates in all political positions, ruling out zoning fears.

In Kilifi County, Omar declared that Kenya Roads Board Chairperson Aisha Jumwa will challenge Governor Gideon Mung’aro of ODM in 2027, while lawyer George Kithi will contest against long-serving Senator Stewart Madzayo.

Separately, Joho, whose supporters have declared him the Coast’s political kingpin or “sultan,”said ODM is prepared to field candidates for all seats except the presidency.

Joho said that, despite not holding an official party position, he was preparing to campaign to ensure ODM candidates win a majority of seats in the forthcoming general election.

“As ODM, we have agreed that only the presidential candidate will not be challenged; all other political seats are open for contest,” Joho, a former ODM deputy party leader, declared.

He clarified that, despite being a Cabinet Secretary, he remains a member of ODM and will ensure the party wins numerous seats in the upcoming election.

“I am confident President  Ruto will triumph next year because of the support he will receive in new regions such as the Coast,” said Joho.

In Taita Taveta County, discussions about zoning have prompted Governor Andrew Mwadime to carefully consider whether to defect to UDA.

Mwadime, who was elected as Independent candidate in 2002, had recently “defected” alongside Jubilee Party’s Mwatate MP Peter Shake and Chawia MCA  Joseph Mabishi, also of Jubilee, during Deputy President Kithure Kindiki’s tour of the region.

His decision to reconsider the defection followed a backlash from supporters who opposed his hasty political move, warning that it could amount to political suicide amid zoning debates that might not favour him.

Days later, Mwadime clarified that he is working with President Ruto’s government to achieve meaningful development in his county, but he will first weigh any defection carefully. He downplayed wearing the UDA cap during the Deputy President’s tour of Taita Taveta.

“If I had defected, my seat could have been declared vacant. I am still weighing options, and my supporters will know my political stance before the next general election,” he said.

Mwadime emphasised that wearing the UDA cap during Prof Kindiki’s tour did not necessarily indicate a shift in loyalty. “I was elected as an Independent candidate, and I remain one to this day,” he declared.